Howard Dean’s collapse is much worse than Hart (1987/88) or Muskie (1972). Hart in 1987 was the front-runner, but nobody was claiming that he had a lock on the nomination. His biggest endorsers were people like the Speaker of the Florida House–rather than former nominees of the national party. As for Muskie, he went on to win New Hampshire with 46% (but McGovern’s 37% was portrayed as moral victory), and he later won the Illinois primary with 63%. Will Howard Dean win a single state?