March
24, 2003, 7:00 a.m. Turkish
Threat
The
brink of calamity.
By David Pryce-Jones
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Turkish parliament’s vote not to allow American troops through the country
and so into northern Iraq has prevented the formation of a second front
on which to attack Saddam Hussein, and so certainly prolonged the war
to a significant extent. That has been a huge disappointment, and it might
have ended in calamity. For a moment, Turkey was proposing to deny the
United States and its allies the use of its air space. Last Saturday,
it seemed to be about to go further still, and invade northern Iraq with
a large force — 30,000-strong according to some reports. That would
have started Turkish-Kurdish fighting.
Five
million Kurds live in northern Iraq. They have managed in very difficult
circumstances to free themselves from Saddam and set up some sort of practical
autonomy for themselves. They are hoping for better days to come. Such
Kurdish spokesmen as Barham Salih, prime minister of this autonomous Kurdistan,
repeats how much he is looking forward to a federal Iraq in which the
Kurds will have their due place, neither more nor less. Kurdish leaders,
and Iraqi opposition leaders like Ahmad Chalabi as well, have been in
Ankara lately trying to reassure the Turks and to prevent any military
adventure on their part. And that’s unnecessarily lost still more time
which could have been profitably used contacting potential Iraqi defectors.
Like most troubles in this
part of the world, there is unfinished business here from 80 years ago,
and the settlement made after the First War. The Kurds in the now-defunct
Ottoman province of Mosul thought that they were about to acquire independence
and a national state. The rump of the Ottoman empire, renamed Turkey,
was allotted by the British the province of Mosul. But the British soon
had second thoughts and for half a million pounds bought the province
back and gave it to Iraq, then under their control. Hitherto Turks and
Kurds had been on good terms. Now they entered into rivalry over territory,
and territory with oil reserves at that. In recent years, Kurdish nationalist
and revolutionary groups have been attacking across the Turkish border,
and killing indiscriminately — causing as many as 30,000 victims.
Turkey consequently fears any idea of Kurdish independence, and also harbors
an imperial nostalgia for territory that it had once held, not to mention
that oil. About 1,000 Turkish troops have been stationed for some time
past in Iraqi Kurdistan, on the rather flimsy grounds that they are preventing
an exodus of refugees.
Kept out of the area by the
Turkish parliament’s vote, United States forces are not yet in a position
to intervene in any Turkish-Kurdish clash, and to keep the two sides apart.
Far better armed and trained, the Turks would easily overwhelm the Kurds.
The thought occurs that the Turks invaded Cyprus some 30 or so years ago,
and are still there. In the event that Turkey was able to take advantage
of the war to seize some or any part of former Iraq, then the aims of
the White House to be liberating the country collapse. Liberation would
actually prove to be cannibalization.
On Saturday, as Turkey looked
most threatening, a truly grim-faced Secretary of State Colin Powell told
his press conference that he would be talking to the Turkish government
within the hour. He did so. The administration was said to be “apoplectic.”
It was afterwards reported that the American ambassador was closeted with
Turkish prime minister Tayyib Erdogan well after midnight. There is a
traditional Turkish puppet show in which the characters get their way
by hitting others over the head with a big stick. In this case perhaps
with a big check. American troops are now coming in as fast as they can
from another direction, across the Jordan border. But with the Turks it’s
been too close a shave for comfort, and very disappointing.
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Turkish parliament’s vote not to allow American troops through the country
and so into northern Iraq has prevented the formation of a second front
on which to attack Saddam Hussein, and so certainly prolonged the war
to a significant extent. That has been a huge disappointment, and it might
have ended in calamity. For a moment, Turkey was proposing to deny the
United States and its allies the use of its air space. Last Saturday,
it seemed to be about to go further still, and invade northern Iraq with
a large force — 30,000-strong according to some reports. That would
have started Turkish-Kurdish fighting.
