 ith
Congress out of session, and President Bush in climes more agreeable
than Washington, it's not surprising that media coverage of politics
has diminished. The D.C. press corps have had little to talk about
for the past two weeks — unless you count the stem-cell pronouncement,
and all things Condit — and the administration has afforded little
help in the way of stories. The president outlined a few initiatives,
and described in general terms his plans for the fall. And the political
agenda rolled to an inexorable, disinterested halt.
Lost in the
thin August gruel of media puff pieces are the prospects of an agenda-smashing
clash quietly awaiting the return of the president and the Congress:
the battle over the Shays-Meehan campaign-finance-reform bill.
The White House
pulled off a string of legislative victories in the week before
Capitol Hill became a ghost town. But proponents of campaign-finance
reform pose a serious threat to the administration's well-laid plans
for the fall. On July 19, Shays-Meehan was exiled to the Committee
on Rules, following a deadlock vote on the rule concerning debate
over the bill. And, ever since, those in favor of reform have been
quietly marshalling their forces.
"Campaign
finance has always been a long shot, something that required a real
commitment," says one pro-reform Capitol Hill activist. "The
reason we're buzzing right now is that, for the first time in a
long while, we're catching a glimpse of real victory."
President Bush
has said he will sign whatever campaign-finance legislation comes
across his desk, so it's been left to the GOP leadership in the
House — and to Majority Whip Tom DeLay — to hold the line against
Shays-Meehan, and to push for the alternative reform package, Ney-Wynn.
Speaker Dennis Hastert crafted a rule that would have split the
legislation into 14 separate amendments — a strategy that would
have required the delicate campaign-finance-reform coalition to
hold together for a majority on each floor vote. Rather than risk
a vote they might have lost, supporters chose to defeat the rule
on the floor, and when 209 Democrats and 19 Republicans voted against
it, the measure was effectively killed. Members of leadership on
both sides of the aisle were quick to point fingers. But privately,
several representatives expressed relief at avoiding a knock-down
floor fight, suggesting that it was, all in all, better to stay
away from the sticky subject entirely.
Now, Shays-Meehan
is on the cusp of resurrection. To bring the bill back to the floor,
supporters needed to garner 218 signatures on a discharge petition,
10 fewer than the number of congressmen that voted against Hastert's
rule. Right now, the discharge petition stands with 205 signatures
— only 13 names away from success.
With such a
slim margin at issue, Shays-Meehan supporters are already at work
to pressure several members — mostly moderate Republicans — who
have voted with them in the past, but have yet to sign on to the
petition.
According to
activists and sources on the Hill, the pro-reform community has
organized targeted town-hall meetings in states where potential
signers are currently undecided. Whether such PR stunts actually
sway representatives' opinions can be debated — but, for a number
of reasons, the meetings could be extremely effective. They will
rely on the direct-mail, phone-list, and grassroots contacts gathered
by Sen. John McCain during his presidential run, and will be located
in media-rich locales designed for maximum exposure. They will be
centrally organized and orchestrated by pro-reform groups and leaders,
including McCain, Rep. Chris Shays, Rep. Jim Turner, and Common
Cause. And — perhaps most ominously for representatives who have
yet to make up their minds — that 800-pound gorilla of Beltway activism,
the AARP, plans to turn out its grassroots for the Shays-Meehan
forces.
The idea of
publicity-grabbing town-hall meetings — packed with retired voters,
and with McCain as a headliner — isn't exactly a pleasing one for
an undecided congressman. Some moderates haven't yet signed simply
because they hope to use their leverage to make slight changes to
the petition in September: Missouri Rep. Lacy Clay, among others,
removed his name from the petition for that reason. But McCain and
his allies plan to force the recalcitrant members on board. Intended
targets for the fall town-hall campaign include many GOP undecideds:
reform forces tout Reps. Charlie Bass (N.H.), Sherwood Boehlert
(N.Y.), Mark Foley (Fla.), Greg Ganske (Iowa), Frank LoBiondo (N.J.),
Thomas Petri (Wis.), Mark Souder (Ind.), Fred Upton (Mich.), and
Frank Wolf (Va.) as prospective post-media-blitz signers. All except
Foley voted against the Hastert rule.
If the discharge
petition does gain the needed signatures, following a waiting period
of seven legislative days, reform legislation must be taken up by
the House on the second or fourth Monday of the month, whichever
comes soonest.
Some activists,
however, confess that, even with the combined forces of McCain's
personal celebrity and the AARP's grassroots strength, the House
alliance for Shays-Meehan could still fracture. The tenuous marriage
of moderate House GOPers with the Blue Dog Democratic Caucus, the
House Women's Caucus, the Hispanic Caucus, and the Congressional
Black Caucus has never been completely solid. And the Ney-Wynn proposal
threatens to carve off even more support.
"To a
large extent, this is a fragile coalition," admits a Common
Cause organizer. "It could easily fall apart. It's really a
day-by-day thing."
For the sake
of the White House's fall agenda, the House Republican leadership
can only hope that it's true.
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