11/09/00 6:35 p.m.
Popular Fantasies
We don’t know that Gore won the popular vote.

By Ramesh Ponnuru, NR senior editor

n his statement today, William Daley said, "More than 100 million Americans voted on Tuesday, and more voted for Al Gore than George Bush." Countless reporters have been making the same point: Gore won the popular vote. The word "indisputably" has even been used.

It may be true that Gore won the popular vote. But it is not true that we know Gore won the popular vote. Not with the possible recounts, continuing counts, absentee ballots, and overseas ballots. Karl Rove said today that he expects Gore's margin in California to shrink and Bush's to rise in Arizona. His numbers in Oregon, Washington state, New Mexico, and Iowa could improve.

All Rove and co. said was that Gore's national margin could shrink, not that it could reverse. But given everything else that's happened over the last two days, there's no reason to rule out the possibility. Bush's people may be lowballing the potential for improvement so as not to come up short. That could be a mistake. Bush can't let the impression sink in with the public that Gore "won the election" and he's trying to steal it. If the public is told that the issue is murky and later hears that Gore did turn out to win the popular vote, Bush will be in a stronger position to make his electoral-vote case.

So far, only CNN's Brooks Jackson has made the point that we don't know the popular-vote winner (in a broadcast at 5:50 Thursday afternoon). The rest of the media should follow. Gore's popular-vote win is no more a fact than Bush's Florida win.