Lucky 13
Thirteen signatures away, Shays and friends go on the offensive.

By Ben Domenech, NRO
August 17, 2001 10:50 a.m.

ith Congress out of session, and President Bush in climes more agreeable than Washington, it's not surprising that media coverage of politics has diminished. The D.C. press corps have had little to talk about for the past two weeks — unless you count the stem-cell pronouncement, and all things Condit — and the administration has afforded little help in the way of stories. The president outlined a few initiatives, and described in general terms his plans for the fall. And the political agenda rolled to an inexorable, disinterested halt.

Lost in the thin August gruel of media puff pieces are the prospects of an agenda-smashing clash quietly awaiting the return of the president and the Congress: the battle over the Shays-Meehan campaign-finance-reform bill.

The White House pulled off a string of legislative victories in the week before Capitol Hill became a ghost town. But proponents of campaign-finance reform pose a serious threat to the administration's well-laid plans for the fall. On July 19, Shays-Meehan was exiled to the Committee on Rules, following a deadlock vote on the rule concerning debate over the bill. And, ever since, those in favor of reform have been quietly marshalling their forces.

"Campaign finance has always been a long shot, something that required a real commitment," says one pro-reform Capitol Hill activist. "The reason we're buzzing right now is that, for the first time in a long while, we're catching a glimpse of real victory."

President Bush has said he will sign whatever campaign-finance legislation comes across his desk, so it's been left to the GOP leadership in the House — and to Majority Whip Tom DeLay — to hold the line against Shays-Meehan, and to push for the alternative reform package, Ney-Wynn. Speaker Dennis Hastert crafted a rule that would have split the legislation into 14 separate amendments — a strategy that would have required the delicate campaign-finance-reform coalition to hold together for a majority on each floor vote. Rather than risk a vote they might have lost, supporters chose to defeat the rule on the floor, and when 209 Democrats and 19 Republicans voted against it, the measure was effectively killed. Members of leadership on both sides of the aisle were quick to point fingers. But privately, several representatives expressed relief at avoiding a knock-down floor fight, suggesting that it was, all in all, better to stay away from the sticky subject entirely.

Now, Shays-Meehan is on the cusp of resurrection. To bring the bill back to the floor, supporters needed to garner 218 signatures on a discharge petition, 10 fewer than the number of congressmen that voted against Hastert's rule. Right now, the discharge petition stands with 205 signatures — only 13 names away from success.

With such a slim margin at issue, Shays-Meehan supporters are already at work to pressure several members — mostly moderate Republicans — who have voted with them in the past, but have yet to sign on to the petition.

According to activists and sources on the Hill, the pro-reform community has organized targeted town-hall meetings in states where potential signers are currently undecided. Whether such PR stunts actually sway representatives' opinions can be debated — but, for a number of reasons, the meetings could be extremely effective. They will rely on the direct-mail, phone-list, and grassroots contacts gathered by Sen. John McCain during his presidential run, and will be located in media-rich locales designed for maximum exposure. They will be centrally organized and orchestrated by pro-reform groups and leaders, including McCain, Rep. Chris Shays, Rep. Jim Turner, and Common Cause. And — perhaps most ominously for representatives who have yet to make up their minds — that 800-pound gorilla of Beltway activism, the AARP, plans to turn out its grassroots for the Shays-Meehan forces.

The idea of publicity-grabbing town-hall meetings — packed with retired voters, and with McCain as a headliner — isn't exactly a pleasing one for an undecided congressman. Some moderates haven't yet signed simply because they hope to use their leverage to make slight changes to the petition in September: Missouri Rep. Lacy Clay, among others, removed his name from the petition for that reason. But McCain and his allies plan to force the recalcitrant members on board. Intended targets for the fall town-hall campaign include many GOP undecideds: reform forces tout Reps. Charlie Bass (N.H.), Sherwood Boehlert (N.Y.), Mark Foley (Fla.), Greg Ganske (Iowa), Frank LoBiondo (N.J.), Thomas Petri (Wis.), Mark Souder (Ind.), Fred Upton (Mich.), and Frank Wolf (Va.) as prospective post-media-blitz signers. All except Foley voted against the Hastert rule.

If the discharge petition does gain the needed signatures, following a waiting period of seven legislative days, reform legislation must be taken up by the House on the second or fourth Monday of the month, whichever comes soonest.

Some activists, however, confess that, even with the combined forces of McCain's personal celebrity and the AARP's grassroots strength, the House alliance for Shays-Meehan could still fracture. The tenuous marriage of moderate House GOPers with the Blue Dog Democratic Caucus, the House Women's Caucus, the Hispanic Caucus, and the Congressional Black Caucus has never been completely solid. And the Ney-Wynn proposal threatens to carve off even more support.

"To a large extent, this is a fragile coalition," admits a Common Cause organizer. "It could easily fall apart. It's really a day-by-day thing."

For the sake of the White House's fall agenda, the House Republican leadership can only hope that it's true.