hile
national and international media focus their attention almost entirely
on the political differences between the America-led coalition and western
European nations such as France and Germany, BuzzCharts has been keeping
an eye on the daily opinion poll that never lies — the marketplace.
While opinion polls and elections are certainly useful in gauging public
opinion, the financial markets reflect public sentiment on a minute-by-minute
basis. BuzzCharts believes that ordinarily people give a lot more thought
to their decisions when their retirement is on the line than they do when
answering questions from a pollster in a phone call.
Viewed
from this perspective, it seems that members of the Global Investor Class
are doing pretty much the same thing as their counterparts in America
— they’re rooting for coalition victory.
BuzzCharts has divided
the timeline into 4 phases: the Ultimatum, the Decapitation Strategy,
the Media Disappointment, and the Closing on Baghdad Phase, which we are
still in the middle of. What the graph above shows with clarity is that,
for the most part, foreign bourses such as the FTSE (Great Britain), the
CAC (France), and the DAX (Germany) have tracked closely with the mood
of U.S. investors. When the progress of the war is uncertain, the markets
are uncertain; when the progress of the war is promising — such as
during the decapitation strategy with its rumors of a hospitalized Saddam
and frantically surrendering Republican Guard — the markets rally;
when the media spends a weekend comparing Operation Iraqi Freedom to Vietnam,
then the markets plummet on the following Monday; and when the war shows
steady but incremental progress the market shows steady but incremental
gains.
Scholars such as
Michael Ledeen have discussed on NRO the great split between elite opinion
in Europe and that of ordinary Europeans. It seems that this silent majority
of Europeans has reflected its views in its investment decisions. The
New Global Investor Class is showing its solidarity across national divides.
—
Jerry Bowyer is a talk show host on WPTT radio in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
He can be reached through www.BowyerMedia.com.
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hile
national and international media focus their attention almost entirely
on the political differences between the America-led coalition and western
European nations such as France and Germany, BuzzCharts has been keeping
an eye on the daily opinion poll that never lies — the marketplace.
While opinion polls and elections are certainly useful in gauging public
opinion, the financial markets reflect public sentiment on a minute-by-minute
basis. BuzzCharts believes that ordinarily people give a lot more thought
to their decisions when their retirement is on the line than they do when
answering questions from a pollster in a phone call. 