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 ext
week, President Bush and members of Congress end their month long
recess and return to Washington. Hopefully, they will be well rested.
After Labor Day, they face a workload that would tax the stamina
of mere mortals.
The month
of September will be consumed primarily by a struggle to provide
between $660 billion and $680 billion in annual funding for so-called
discretionary spending programs. If all the procedural niceties
in this annual ritual were observed, Congress would send to Bush
13 separate appropriations bills before October 1. Having shaped
the contents sufficiently to his liking in advance, Bush would sign
each individually into law.
However, very
few Washington veterans expect 13 separate bills to be presented
before the deadline — and for every one to be acceptable. Instead,
you should expect that between five and nine of the less controversial
13 bills will become law before October 1. Programs that haven’t
been funded by then are likely to receive temporary funding under
one or more successive “continuing resolutions.”
As time runs
out on each resolution, there will be a game of brinkmanship between
President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D., S.D.).
Each will try to secure funding for their priorities and, if negotiations
falter, both will try to divert blame for “shutting down the government”
to the other party. The two biggest bills, one financing defense
spending and the other covering education and a cornucopia of social
services, probably will be resolved last, due to Democratic delays.
Congressional Democrats want the best chance to prove that Bush’s
tax-cut program has made it impossible to fund fully both defense
and education without dipping into the Medicare trust fund.
Although he
will swallow hard on a few irritating environmental riders, the
odds favor that Bush will prevail and keep total appropriated spending
near the $661 billion called for in the original GOP budget. Bush
has the upper hand as he enters this contest with Daschle. His “heartland
tour” and well received stem-cell speech have boosted his approval
rating toward 60 percent. In a “who ya gonna believe” showdown,
Daschle will be risking his 51-49 Senate majority that he has to
defend in 15 months while confronting a more popular figure, President
Bush, who owns a larger national megaphone.
Despite this
favorable terrain, it will speak volumes if George W. doesn’t prevail.
Baseball teams ahead by two runs after eight innings ought
to win just about every time. Therefore, investors should downgrade
considerably their estimates on how Bush will fare on other issues
if Daschle is the one who is smiling when the appropriations battle
concludes.
This showdown
will matter.
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