Future Electric-Car Sales

by Henry Payne

Per Greg’s post on J. D. Power’s prediction of global sales of hybrid and electric vehicles reaching “just” 7.3 percent of the global auto market by 2010: Industry analysts love to make predictions and journalists love to quote them. They are sexy, they confirm preconceived notions (or flout them), and they drive regulation. But the journos rarely go back to check a prediction’s veracity.

Take J. D. Power. This influential and notoriously “conservative” industry group predicted in 2007 that hybrids would make up 4.6 percent hybrid of U.S. market share by this year. The reality: today, hybrid market share is half that.

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