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Can Green Energy Scale Up in the U.S.?

This is a pretty balanced report report from Environment 360 on the hurdles in front of a green-energy future. Some key excerpts . . .

First up, for those in the “China is kicking our butt” camp:

From the dust-blown steppes of Inner Mongolia to the waters off Shanghai, China installed more wind turbines in the first half of 2010 than any other country — 7,800 megawatts of potential power production, or more than the United States, the European Union, and India combined. In fact, in northeast China alone, autumn and winter winds now produce some 17 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, roughly 5.5 percent of the total power generation in the region. That’s up from 534 million kilowatt hours just five years ago.But despite this rapid progress, wind energy still only generates a tiny fraction of China’s electricity. Indeed, even with aggressive government backing and green energy mandates, such “new energy” — including wind, solar, nuclear power plants, and biomass — accounts for less than 3 percent of China’s electricity production, compared to more than 70 percent provided by coal, which produces roughly 3 metric tons of carbon dioxide for every metric ton of the dirty, black rock burned. And as China’s economy continues to expand at a dizzying rate for the foreseeable future, wind and other renewable sources of energy will not even be able to keep pace with new demand, meaning fossil fuel burning will continue unabated.

And are you ready for some NIMBY here in the U.S.?

Assuming the U.S. will require roughly 4 terrawatts of power by 2050 (a conservative estimate, given that we already use more than three), replacing all that fossil fuel would require at least 4 million wind turbines — necessitating building 12, three-megawatt wind turbines every hour for the next 30 years, according to Griffiths. The numbers are similar for solar — 160 billion square meters of photovoltaic cells or concentrating mirrors. “We need to be making a square yard of solar cells or mirrors every second for the next 40 years to install that much in North America,” Griffiths calculates.It’s not just a matter of making the necessary equipment, it’s also a question of finding the space for it. A coal-fired power plant produces 100 to 1,000 watts per square meter, depending on the type of coal it burns and how that coal is mined. A typical photovoltaic system for turning sunlight into electricity produces just 9 watts per square meter, and wind provides only 1.5 watts per square meter.

Is nuclear the answer? If so, we better start building:

Just to supply one-quarter of its current energy mix from a resource that emits far fewer greenhouse gases — nuclear power — the U.S. would need to build 1,000 one-gigawatt nuclear reactors by 2050. Yet construction has begun on only two nuclear reactors in the U.S. since 1974. And just to power an electric car and truck fleet to replace the U.S.’s current gas and ethanol-fueled one would require 500 new nuclear power plants. There are currently 442 reactors in the entire world, of which the U.S. has 104 — the most of any nation.

This reminds me of an op-ed I read in the WSJ a few months before the tech-bubble burst. The op-ed basically argued that if you tally up all of the projections from the tech sector and take them even at a discounted value, there was not enough electricity in the U.S. to meet  the demand for the projected sales. Either power plants needed to be built, or the numbers from the tech sector would prove bogus. And since no construction of the scale needed to meet the tech industry projections was underway, said projections would fail. And pop went the bubble.

Anybody see 12 wind turbines getting built per hour? Yeah, me neither. Which means all of the construction and money we’re spending won’t dent what the policymakers say is the problem of carbon emissions.

New on Planet Gore. . .


COMMENTS   10

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   01/21/11 13:57

Unless 4 terrawatts is built, the US won't have 4 terrawatts. Simplistic, I know, but what doesn't get built can't get used. Therefore, at some point, when someone turns on the switch, there will be no power.

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Michael Anderson
   01/21/11 15:00

Not a problem. Since their pension fund went bust, they couldn't pay the light bill anyway.

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   01/21/11 21:37

So in spite of an aggressive building program in China, the wind power there is only 5.5%. Wind power is at best a niche producer, not a mainstream power source by any means.

There is no way in the present political climate that the US will build enough power plants of any kind to keep up with future demand.

Having no energy policy in the US would be better then the non-sense-able "energy" policy of Washington DC.

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GB
   01/22/11 09:40

How can the burning of one metric ton of coal produce three metric tons of carbon dioxide? How can the weight of the CO2 in coal be greater than the coal?

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   01/22/11 12:09

It looks like China could at "best" with much more aggressive mandates and subsidies, just keep up with growing demand by using wind. At the same time, they would cover huge parts of their landscape with turbines. At the same time, they would still need to build equivalient conventional back up for this increased wind power. Is there a picture of a wind turbine in the dictionary next to the word "futility?"

As for the US "replacing" all carbon sourced electricity (not counting converting everyone to electric cars and trucks), the 12 million turbines (number seems low) equates to what in subsidies plus increased energy costs, and acres? Currently, I can't drive any interstate out of Chicago for more than 80 miles and not encounter a huge windfield. It seems that you would have to line every interstate for as far as the eye could see and still not get the energy you need. And you know, not even an envioronmentalist is going to look at that and believe it is not a problem.

No doubt though that "renewables" are growing. They're the only things being allowed to grow. Green has nothing to do with reason, making resistance the next example of futility.

I know a true green believer working for an electric company who does not believe it is even possible to build enough wind generation. He's a true believer, thus he thinks we should just run out rather than produce energy any other way.

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 JPK
   01/22/11 15:33

I find the kind of predictions that most enviormental advocacy groups that are made in this column pure fantasy. The world demographics are rapidly evolving. The TFR(Total Fertility Rate) of the world's most industrial and financially advanced nations has been plummeting for over 2 and half decades. China is no exception. The world's biggest consumers of electricity (and providers of wealth) are getting older quicker. Look at the CIA Factsbook and Wiki. Most of Europe has a TFR of 1.7 or less; China and Japan hover between 1.1 and 1.6 children per female. Russia has a a TFR of only 1.1 to 1.2 children per female. And if you discount immigrants. the US has a TFR of 1.7 per femlae (with both legal and illegal it jumps to barely 2.0, which is just a tad below replacement levels). Down South, Mexico has a TFR of 2.6 - a far cry from its 1978 peak of 6.0; ditto for Central and South America. Of all the G-20 nations, only India has a replacement a demographic that exceeds 2.1 (it is 3.5).

In short, the world's population will get older before it begins to shrink. Longer livespans cover this shrinking demographic. But, from an economic perspective older people consume less goods (but consume more healthcare), and save more. Older people take less risks, and are attuned to a more inward looking government.

The period 1982-2007 saw the largest global economic expansion in world history (which caused a huge spike in energy consumption). This was also a period that saw incrediable growth in world populations. But the rate of growth actually peaked in the 1990s and has been slowing for years.

Energy usage will continue to rise for the remainder of this decade. But the rate of consumption will begin slowing (In some ways it already has. We still haven't recovered to the consumption levels of 2006-2007, and may never will). By 2050, the world will be a totally different place. And hobby horses like "peak oil" and Global Warming will be the last the world's worries.

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   01/22/11 23:39

Obviously, existing coal plants aren't going to be replaced with nuclear or w/e. If some other energy source proves to be more economical, new plants will be built using it, but the old ones won't go away till they wear out normally.

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 Atom
   01/23/11 14:38

@GB
12 lbs of carbon(C) when combined with 32 lbs of oxygen (O2) produces 44 lbs of carbon dioxide (CO2).

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   01/24/11 15:19

Someone needs to do the calculations on many power plants and how many miles of transmission lines it would take to convert our current fleet of about 250,000,000 cars, light trucks, and SUVs to electric. Then do the same thing for the raw materials needed for the batteries and the electric motors for that many vehicles. Just put some rough estimates out there. The numbers ought to be sufficiently daunting to put an end to all this electric car nonsense, or at least to end all the hating on the internal combustion engine.

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   01/24/11 23:51

It's funny how there are suddenly giant wind turbine farms (nonoperational) an hour outside of so many major liberal metro areas on.

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