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Gas Price Spike: It’s the Monetary Policy, Stupid

Here’s a great post from the Seeking Alpha blog on the real cause of the increase in gas prices. An excerpt:

Monetary stimulus is not only juicing the stock market at the expense of savers, it is also sucking additional money directly out of their pockets. As shown above, inflation data often excludes food and energy prices because these two measures are inherently volatile. But if the actions of the Federal Reserve are directly causing these measures to consistently rise, these two items must be included in the assessment of overall inflation, as their policy actions are causing these readings to become much more consistent and predictable. One particular segment where Fed policy is directly resulting in skyrocketing prices is at the gas pump. From the first day that the Fed began engaging in quantitative easing back in early 2008, the impact on gas prices has been profound.

Gasoline prices have followed a predictable trend since the first days of Fed stimulus. During QE1, gasoline prices skyrocketed by +118%. Once QE1 ended in April 2010, gasoline prices immediately dropped by -27% in a matter of months, and this occurred during what is typically the strong summer driving season. Once QE2 was delivered to the market in August 2010, gasoline prices jumped another 92% by the end of this stimulus program in June 2011. Once again, the moment QE2 ended, gasoline prices retreated another -28% in a matter of months. Finally, since the latest Fed stimulus program along with the European Central Bank’s own LTRO program, we’ve seen gasoline prices skyrocket another +30%. What is even more irksome is that much of this rise in gasoline prices has occurred during a time when gasoline consumption has been falling. Have the laws of supply and demand been repealed? No, they’ve just been severely distorted by policy action.

Read the entire post here.

New on Planet Gore. . .


COMMENTS   9

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   02/23/12 12:57

The problem with most of these theories is that they do little for providing an explanation as to why monetary policy would cause gas prices to go berserk but not anything else. If this was inflation caused by monetary policy, widespread price indices would be way up as well, but they're not.

Also note that this graph is for gasoline prices, not oil prices, adding another potential layer onto price distortions (for instance, the shift to summer gas blends around April each year tends to move prices up, then fall back).

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jonah feldman
   02/23/12 17:14

as the great economist milton friedman put it "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." the way QE has the effect of raising asset prices (stocks, bonds, commodities like oil, gold, cotton, etc.) is that the Fed, and other central banks, print money and buy treasurys on the open market from the primary dealers, who are almost exclusively banks. this transaction has the effect of increasing the money supply and providing those banks with extra liquidity in which a portion of it is deposited at the federal reserve banks and the other portion is used to gamble in the markets, which results in many asset classes rising independent of fundamentals. basically QE induces a temporary "boom" that makes it feel like the economy is doing well when in reality we only experience asset price inflation, which transfers wealth from poorer consumers to wealthier investors.

in short, QE leads to a rise in asset prices, like oil and therefore gas, by both increasing the money supply and providing banks additional capital with which to gamble/speculate/invest. there may be other effects of QE that leads to higher asset prices, like psychological ones, or other monetary ones that i have neglected to mention or simply don't understand myself.

as to your question about other inflation indices or aggegrates, consumer price inflation is caused by more factors than simply the money supply, though i'd argue the money supply is the PRINCIPAL factor affecting the price level. those other factors include demand, supply of raw goods, cost of labor, tightness of labor markets, and others. if gas prices rise very high, it is safe to say consumer demand will drop off as money is siphoned into the gas market, along with other effects on the overall labor market. moreover, many goods are manufactured abroad using low cost labor so they may be less likely to increase in value quick enough to be reflected in inflation indexes.

hope i could help, but there's no doubt QE and other monetary stimulative measures lead to asset price inflation. in my opinion, monetary policy is the most serious and important issue of our time, yet very, very few actually talk about it or understand it, and the media hardly talks about it. i'll leave you with a quote from perhaps the most well known economist of the 20th century john maynard keynes:

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

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   02/24/12 10:34

Let's not forget that the "official" inflation number is very highly massaged number.

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   02/23/12 14:18

I've said for years, that instead of removing food and energy from the index, they should use something like a 6 month rolling average. The noise is removed, but if there is a true trend, up or down, it will show up after a few months.

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   02/23/12 16:03

All that "easy money" has to go somewhere. After the stock market burned down, it went into real estate, but in 2008 that also collapsed. It seems commodities are next (particularly gold and oil).

Fed interest rate policies have created a lot more problems than solutions going back to at least Greenspan (who was highly regarded, but I thought he was awful! His overreaction to Y2K was the worst of many bad decisions.)

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   02/24/12 12:47

High gas prices, low gas prices, high interest rates, low interest rates... it's all part of the plan.

"Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz adds other culprits as crucial to the making of the current economic crisis. Among them:

1) the April 1998, decision of President Clinton's Working Group on Financial Markets to quash a proposal by Brooksley E. Born, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to regulate derivatives;

2) enactment of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act on November 12, 1999 allowing consolidation of commercial and investment banks;

3) passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 removing derivatives from federal oversight;

4) the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003;

5) the failure of the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for regulating derivatives; and

6) the Securities and Exchange Commission decision in April, 2004, to allow large investment banks to increase their debt-to-capital ratio from 12 to 1 to 30 to 1, or higher.

"What each of these actions (and inactions) has in common is that Greenspan either initiated or endorsed them.

External Link 

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   02/23/12 18:29

The full post at least starts to address issues raised in Rogue Economist's comments.

Gasoline price rises are seeming anomalous / exceptional even when watching underlying oil prices. Price indices in general and the stock market prices are rising. But QE3 may only be a partial explanation. Has the supply side of equilibrium been changed in some way - with regard to refineries? With regard to expectations of energy policy in the US affecting pricing behavior?

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   02/23/12 19:18

Last fall, oil prices rose dramatically, with very little response in gas prices. I read at the time it was because there was a glut of gasoline being refined. I'm guessing that the current run up in gas prices without an concurrent run up in oil prices is a delayed reaction to last falls prices.

Remember that when oil is refined, you can't just say, today I'm refining for gasoline, and gasoline is all you get. INstead, oil is refined into a wide range of products, everything from tar to kerosene. The best you can do is adjust the ratio of products that you get. In the run up to winter, oil companies will usually try to stock up on heating oil. However, in the process, they end up creating a surplus of other products at the same time.

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   02/24/12 14:07

Of course the price of any product reflects many different factors. But monetary policy is an important one, especially for a globally-traded, dollar-denominated commodity like oil. My own guess? The Fed's ultra-loose money represents as much as 50% of the current crude oil price. And world economies really start to grow again, look out -- oil prices could quickly reach all-time highs.

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