Here we go with the Daily Round-up


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Some… oh, you know the drill:

  • Two papers from the Director of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska
  • NASA is studying how airborne particles affect climate (we actually know very little about this and its of central importance)
  • Has global warming reduced mortality?
  • New paper from the IEA in London on “Global warming false alarms”
  • What do the leaks from IPCC Working Group II mean?
  • Carl Wunsch of MIT feels he was swindled by the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle. Was he?
  • … Channel 4′s Head of Science says he wasn’t
  • The Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research says global warming science is “post normal
  • … British journalist Melanie Phillips is astounded
  • BMW prepares for fight with EU over carbon limits
  • While Siemens prepares to fight EU over light bulb prices

Lots of stuff there. Enjoy!

Is this why Al Gore won’t debate?


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Last night, NPR and intelligence squared hosted a debate in New York City on the motion “Global Warming is not a Crisis.” The proposition, Michael Crichton, Prof. Richard Lindzen and Prof. Philip Stott, won by 46% to 42%. What makes the performance all the more impressive is that before the event the organizers found the motion would have been disapproved of 57% to 30%, so there was quite a swing as a result of the arguments deployed.

A cynic (who, me?) might suggest that this sort of result illustrates just why ‘alarmists’ are trying to close down the debate on the issue.

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How could I?


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When recommending the Environmental Economics blog yesterday, I failed to mention the blog’s other main contributor, John Whitehead. A sin of omission. Mea culpa. The blog is always worth reading.

Evangelicals and Global Warming


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CNN has another story up about the evangelical divide over global warming.  As usual, it’s the National Evangelical Association’s Richard Cizik against the usual cadre of conservative evangelical political leaders—Focus on the Family’s James Dobson, Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins, and longtime conservative activist Paul Weyrich, just to name a few.  Now, I think Cizik is mistaken to suggest that global warming poses a catastrophic threat that requires government action (and not like Kyoto/cap-and-trade will do much to lower temperatures anyway), but I also think that the Dobson crowd’s resistance to environmental issues might be a little much.  As the free-market environmentalism movement has shown, it’s entirely possible to be concerned for the welfare of the environment and not want to see public action taken in the name of protecting it.  There’s a great case to be made that markets and property rights do a better job of protecting nature than public land ownership and top-down rule-making. 

Additionally, it always seems odd to me when religious groups argue for more government. Do church leaders really want to give more power to an explicitly secular, already-powerful societal institution?  If the Cizik crowd could focus their energies in the direction of free-market environmentalism, not only would they put a damper on a lot of the evangelical acrimony over the issue, they’d be advocating policies more in their interests—and, perhaps most importantly, more likely to work.

GORE’S QUESTION MARK


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Al Gore’s penchant is well-known; he seems to stumble more frequently than most into making outrageous statements such as he “took the initiative in creating the internet”, and tantalizing intimations (NYT password required) that he and Tipper were the model for Erich Segal’s Oliver Barrett and Jenny Cavalieri in “Love Story” (widely – in left-media circles – defended as a misquote).

On his signature issue, catastrophic Man-made global warming, he has similarly been making claims for years that he has been sounding the warming alarm since the mid-1970’s…which would be during the height of the catastrophic man-made global cooling craze, when meteorologists “[were] almost unanimous” about this phenomenon.

Consider the latest example, an email communication with the New York Times (OK, we know Dems are afraid of Fox News, but isn’t agreeing to communicate with the ever-faithful Grey Lady a sign that Gore is taking his refusal to be trapped into discussion about his claims a little far?) “He said that after 30 years of trying to communicate the dangers of global warming, ‘I think that I’m finally getting a little better at it.’”

Let’s all agree that this is a stretch of the truth, by at least half.

The record reflects that it is still under two decades since Gore emceed the debut of catastrophic Man-made global warming at a Senate hearing – this 1988 appearance described by left-leaning Salon as an “early alarm” harkening images of Paul Revere (about Hansen), mind you – which was hot on the heels and an unannounced 180° from the prevailing consensus over catastrophic cooling.

No, it hasn’t been 30 years any more than Gore is getting better at this. What’s next, insisting that he invented the question mark?

G-g-g-global Warming


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This story is surely proof that God has a sense of humor. It even leads with the punch line:

A North Pole expedition meant to bring attention to global warming was called off after one of the explorers got frostbite.

Of course, the story ends with the obligatory escape hatch that warm and cold weather are predicted by global warming models. That’s icing on the cake. (hat tip to Jim Fitzgerald )

Hurricanes and Global Warming


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We’re endlessly told that damage from hurricanes has been going up and that this is all the fault of global warming. Tosh of course, damage from hurricanes has been going up because more people are building more expensive things in areas where hurricanes strike.

The next round of the argument seems to be that ah, yes, but we will have more hurricanes of greater intensity from global warming. Something which David Friedman doesn’t think is true

Consider first the physics. A hurricane is a heat engine; it converts thermal energy into work in the form of swirling winds. In principle one could use windmills to turn the hurricane into, say, electrical power, although I doubt it is a practical project. A heat engine that simply turns heat into work is a perpetual motion machine of the second kind, impossible because it violates the second law of thermodynamics. Actual heat engines take heat from a hot source, convert some of it into work, and dump some of it into a colder sink. They run not off the absolute temperature of the source but off the temperature difference between source and sink.

(…)

 Global warming, however, as the second commenter pointed out, affects both air and sea. There is no reason to expect it to change the difference between air and sea temperature, so the evidence that warm seasons generate hurricanes is irrelevant to the question of whether global warming would.

An interesting point don’t you think? Also worth pointing out that David Friedman is indeed a trained physicist .  

Not Energetic


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So wait a minute Iain.  They couldn’t go forward because of “drained batteries”?  Aren’t we supposed to be reducing our energy usage or something?  Isn’t there virtue in unspoiled nature?  I’m so confused…

Daily Round-up


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I tried posting this earlier, but it disappeared into the ether; here are some tidbits and links you may have missed:

And finally, two intrepid explorers have called off a trek to the Arctic designed to raise awareness of global warming because of the extreme cold:

The explorers, Ann Bancroft and Liv Arnesen, on Saturday called off what was intended to be a 530-mile trek across the Arctic Ocean after Arnesen suffered frostbite in three of her toes, and extreme cold temperatures drained the batteries in some of their electronic equipment.

“Ann said losing toes and going forward at all costs was never part of the journey,” said Ann Atwood, who helped organize the expedition.

So there you have it – going forward at all costs isn’t part of the journey.

It’s that time of year again


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Spring is almost here, so with it will come gas price rises and, as sure as God made little green apples, accusations of price gouging against the oil companies. Lynne Kiesling has the definitive post on the fundamentals of this phenomenon, as she has for the previous two years.

He sees straw people


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Environmental economist Tim Haab (whose blog, env-econ.net, should be a daily read for anyone interested in energy and environmental economics, even if you don’t agree with all of it) Keep reading this post . . .

Catastrophists II


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We’re doomed, doomed!

The challenge at this point may be explaining the full import of global warming, said ABC News correspondent Bill Blakemore, who’s been reporting on the issue for more than two years.

Blakemore, who has covered numerous wars over the years, said global warming is the most challenging story he’s worked on.

“It’s surreal to have pre-eminent scientists tell us very seriously that civilization as we know it is over,” Blakemore said. “The scale is unprecedented. It touches every aspect of life.”

I wish they’d get their story straight. Is civilization over and humanity heading for extinction? Or is this a problem that can be solved by changing a light-bulb or two?

This isn’t so much “climate porn” as climate sado-masochism.

Dyson speaks


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No, not the inventive chap who revolutionized the vacuum cleaner, but Freeman Dyson, quite possibly the world’s most eminent physicist. In an interview with CC-Net’s Benny Peiser, he answers several searching questions about the state of science today insightfully. This exchange over the gloom surrounding British science strikes me as eminently sensible:

Benny Peiser: Britain’s leading cosmologists seem to be particularly gloomy about the future of civilisation and humankind. The so-called Doomsday Argument seems to have had a significant influence on many Cambridge-based scientists. It has induced among them a conviction that global catastrophe is almost imminent. Martin Rees, for instance, estimates that there is a 50% chance of human extinction during the next 100 years. How do you explain this apocalyptic mood among leading cosmologists in Britain and the almost desperate tone of their pronouncements?

Freeman Dyson: My view of the prevalence of doom-and-gloom in Cambridge is that it is a result of the English class system. In England there were always two sharply opposed middle classes, the academic middle class and the commercial middle class. In the nineteenth century, the academic middle class won the battle for power and status. As a child of the academic middle class, I learned to look on the commercial middle class with loathing and contempt. Then came the triumph of Margaret Thatcher, which was also the revenge of the commercial middle class. The academics lost their power and prestige and the business people took over. The academics never forgave Thatcher and have been gloomy ever since.

Lots more there, including Dyson’s reasons for distrusting global climate models. Read the whole thing, as they say.

Decerify the “Old Me”?


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So, does the Weather Channel’s Heidi Cullen, who recently called for decertifying skeptics of the theory that man drives climatic change, seek to decertify her old self?

 

 

For example, see this piece in Science Daily:

 

Earth’s climate cools significantly and abruptly every 1,500 years or so in a persistent, regular rhythm, a team led by scientists at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory reports in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science.

 

[snip]

 

Reporting the finding with Dr. Bond, the lead author, were: Maziet Cheseby, Rusty Lotti, Peter Almasi, Peter deMenocal, Paul Priorie and Heidi Cullen, all of Lamont-Doherty; William Showers of North Carolina State University; and Irka Hadjas and Georges Bonani of ITP ETH in Zurich, Switzerland.

 

 

 

As we now know, even expressing that Man must have some role but that history certainly suggests that natural variations largely determine climate is cause to bring down the weight of the global warming industry upon one’s self (as the New York Times’ William Broad has discovered more than once).

 

 

So we are confronted with the irony that, if the anti-skeptic speech code that skeptic-cum-activist for warming alarmism Heidi Cullen clearly supports be put in place now were in place back when she was actually engaged in academic work, one is tempted to think that she might be forced to find some other line of work now.

The Pious Loses its Halo


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Enviros are also starting to turn on the Toyota Prius.

Good for them!

Carbon offsets or indulgences?


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A couple of weeks ago I argued that certain types of carbon offsets could represent a Coasean bargain over the external costs (if any) involved in fossil fuel use imposed on other people. Paying someone else not to use fossil fuels does not rise to this level. The only sort of scheme I would invest in is one that, for instance, funded sea defenses in Bangladesh or something concrete of that ilk that mitigated damages. Most of the current schemes out there are simply peddling indulgences and enriching mostly the people who arrange the trades (green versions of Nathan Detroit, of you will).

I’m glad to say that some groups on the left also see through this charade. Here’s an AlertNet essay, for instance. RisingTide, a group of environmental activists in the UK, recently occupied the offices of the Carbon Neutral Company in London. And Carbon Trade Watch has issued an 80 page report entitled “(PDF) The Carbon Neutral Myth: Offset Indulgences for your Carbon Sins.”

But perhaps the best commentary of all is the website CheatNeutral:

What is Cheat Offsetting?

When you cheat on your partner you add to the heartbreak, pain and jealousy in the atmosphere.

Cheatneutral offsets your cheating by funding someone else to be faithful and NOT cheat. This neutralises the pain and unhappy emotion and leaves you with a clear conscience.

Can I offset all my cheating?

First you should look at ways of reducing your cheating. Once you’ve done this you can use Cheatneutral to offset the remaining, unavoidable cheating

Now, if Gore uses Carbon Offsets, I wonder if his former running mate…

Naaah.

This Could Get Sticky


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Of all of the catastrophes that global warming threatens, surely this is the worst. First our pizza , now our pancakes–what will global warming decimate next?

Catastrophists


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I included a link to the Gallup poll on American attitudes to global warming below, but here’s one interesting tidbit. Fully 55 percent of Democrats polled worry that global warming will cause human life to cease to exist on Earth.

If you thought hunger was a problem...


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Think again! According to Australian experts, obesity is “as big a threat as climate change.”

Which either means it is The Greatest Threat Facing Manking (TM) or no threat at all, depending on where you sit.

Round-up


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A few days to catch up on, so here are quite a lot of global warming-related stories you may have missed:

Lots of stuff to while away the hours with there…

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