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 epublicans
are knee-deep in recriminations today over James Jeffords's defection.
Here's where the fingers are
pointing, in
descending order:
1. Nick Calio,
head of the White House legislative-affairs shop. After Jeffords
voted against the president on taxes, the White House didn't invite
him to a ceremony and hinted that it might eliminate the dairy-compact
program that benefits Vermont farmers. These reprisals are being
widely blamed for driving Jeffords away — not a bright idea in a
50-50 Senate. House Republicans are especially fond of the Calio
theory, since they consider him arrogant and want the administration
to work with them more closely. (Which it probably will now, as
a matter of necessity.) Of course, to blame Calio is indirectly
to blame Bush.
2. Trent Lott.
Plenty of Senate Republicans think that Jeffords is less annoyed
with Bush than with Lott's management of the Senate. They're blaming
Lott for not keeping Jeffords in the fold. They're also blaming
him for the deal he made with Tom Daschle on organizing the Senate.
That deal obviously bought no goodwill from the Democrats, and it
included no provisions to get better treatment from the Democrats
if they took the majority before 2002. As they appear to be doing.
Watch for hostility to Lott to rise as Republican senators lose
their committee chairmanships and begin laying off staff.
3. Mitch McConnell,
head of the Republicans' Senate campaign committee. Some Republicans
are asking the question: Why were we at 50-50 in the first place?
Because the 2000 elections were a disaster. Republicans are pointing
to two races they think that McConnell flubbed: the ones in New
Jersey and Nebraska. The Republican candidate came very close in
each, but didn't get enough money from the national party in the
closing days of the election. It's true that those races tightened
toward the end-but it was predictable that they would.
4. Strom Thurmond.
John Fund of the Wall Street Journal advances
a theory on NRO today: Jeffords left the GOP figuring that Thurmond
might die and deliver control of the Senate to the Democrats at
any moment. Rather than go into the minority, why not cut himself
a nice deal? Fund points out that Thurmond could have resigned after
the Republican governor of South Carolina lost his reelection bid
in 1998. The seat would have stayed Republican, and Washington wouldn't
have been watching his health so closely.
5. Libertarians.
In the last two elections, Republicans have lost two Senate seats
by a margin much smaller than a Libertarian Party candidate received:
a Nevada seat in 1998, and a Washington state seat in 2000. Most
Libertarian voters probably preferred the Republican to the Democrat.
By making the perfect the enemy of the good — or at least the okay
— these libertarians may have made Tom Daschle majority leader.
We'll all get to enjoy the rewards.
6. Fate. Two
deaths last year — those of Georgia Republican Paul Coverdell and
Missouri Democrat Mel Carnahan — delivered seats to the Democrats.
When Coverdell died, a Democratic governor was able to name his
replacement. If Carnahan had lived, Ashcroft would probably have
beat him. But his death generated a wave of sympathy. And the revulsion
at the nastiness of the race, which had previously hurt both men,
now hurt only Ashcroft. Another pick-up for the Democrats.
So far, there's
more talk about who's to blame than what to do. That fact may yield
us a seventh culprit: Republicans generally.
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