One of our Postmodern Conservative commenters asked why we weren’t giving more attention to Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul as potential 2016 presidential nominees. It was a good question. I’ll leave Rand Paul for another day, but here is my thinking for why Santorum and Huckabee are unlikely to get the GOP presidential nomination in 2016:

Santorum deserves a lot more respect than he gets. He is a principled social conservative. He was the only one in the 2012 Republican field who recognized that the Republican message aimed at entrepreneurs and right-leaning professionals had too little appeal. Santorum recognized the weaknesses that Obama exploited in the general election. Jeb Bush would be smart to study what was right with the 2012 Santorum campaign, but he probably won’t. The entire Republican establishment response to the 2012 loss was to double down on the priorities and sensibilities of the business lobbies.

One objection to Santorum is that his 2012 working-class economic message was badly out of day. Santorum was trying to appeal, both culturally and economically, to the working class of 1972 rather than that of 2012. That is a problem, but it is probably remediable. Policy agendas can be rewritten in order to adapt to changing circumstances.

But Santorum’s biggest problems have less to do with his agenda, than with his personality. When under pressure, he can’t avoid getting into self-defeating arguments. There is no reason to expect that this is going to change in his fifties. Santorum also seems to lack some executive skills. Santorum wasn’t able to raise a large amount of money early in his campaign, but fundraising networks can be built. The real problem was that Santorum wasn’t able to manage what should have been under his control. His campaign had trouble organizing the setting for interviews. Most of his primary night speeches were poorly organized and self-indulgent. Santorum is a good man who deserves our respect (more so than just about any Republican who ran for the 2012 nomination), but he is just missing some of the talents it takes to go all the way in a contemporary presidential race.

Talent is one thing that Huckabee has. If presidential campaigns were run on paper, Huckabee would be the frontrunner for the 2016 presidential nomination. Not a frontrunner.  The frontrunner. He has a large, pre-existing base among white evangelical Christians (most of Santorum’s 2012 vote would almost certainly go to Huckabee). Huckabee would enter the 2016 with much higher name recognition and a larger fundraising base than in 2008. He has the kind of winning personality that could appeal to open-minded voters and he could benefit from being underestimated in all the right ways.  

Huckabee was weak on national policy in 2008, but that should be fixable. Santorum can’t make himself less choleric, but Huckabee could hit the briefing books.

But it turns out that Huckabee isn’t all that serious about running a presidential campaign. His speech to this year’s CPAC was a series of conservative Christian identity politics gestures. He is still in favor of the politically suicidal FairTax.

Well, the FairTax is suicidal for a presidential candidate. It is just fine for a political entertainer. Huckabee just seems to occasionally hint that he is running for president as a way of refreshing his entertainment industry brand. It is reasonable (and maybe even admirable) that he is reticent to run for president. But normal people have a limited appetite for politics and for disappointment. Huckabee’s cynical flirting with the presidential campaign is toying with the emotions of real people who are being badly served by our politics

I just wish we could somehow give Huckabee’s talents and executive experience to Santorum.