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The Primary Event

Tracking the 2012 election.


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Paul Files Paperwork for Arizona Primary

Bruce Ash, the Republican national committeeman for Arizona, tells NRO that representatives for Ron Paul filed the necessary paperwork to appear on that state’s primary ballot yesterday. The primary takes place on February 28.

Tags: Ron Paul

Primary Event Web Briefing

May 20, 2011 3:43 PM

David M. Drucker: Is Cain's Campaign Staff Able to Pull Off Win?

Jonathan Martin: Rick Perry's Now-or-Never Debate

Nate Silver: New Hampshire's Contrarian Streak

Maeve Reston: Romney Exudes Confidence in New Hampshire

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Perry to Hit the Road in Iowa

The Perry campaign has often touted retail politics as Perry’s great strength, and now, with just weeks to go to the Iowa caucuses, is planning to one big, last retail effort. Perry will tour the state in a campaign bus for 14 days, stopping in 44 cities, reports the Des Moines Register.

Tags: Rick Perry

‘Leader’

Once again, without directly mentioning Newt Gingrich, the Romney campaign is pushing hard in this new TV ad the message that Mitt Romney has a long marriage:

Transcript of the ad, as provided by the campaign:

I think people understand that I’m a man of steadiness and constancy. I don’t think you’re going to find somebody who has more of those attributes than I do. I’ve been married to the same woman for 25 – excuse me, I’ll get in trouble – for 42 years. I’ve been in the same church my entire life. I worked at one company, Bain, for 25 years. And I left that to go off and help save the Olympic Games. If I’m President of the United States, I will be true to my family, to my faith, and to our country, and I will never apologize for the United States of America. “I’m Mitt Romney, and I approve this message.

Tags: Mitt Romney

Obama Campaign Starts Eyeing Gingrich

Politico’s Mike Allen reports:

Some Obama aides are exultant about running against a candidate with so much baggage and bad history. They generally view Romney as a stronger, more dangerous opponent, even if the former House speaker is likely to shine in debates. The feeling — or hope — among the campaign’s upper echelon is that the Romney-Gingrich fight just might last until June, as long as Obama-Clinton in 2008, with deeply unpredictable results.

But there’s also a wary recognition that Gingrich may be catching a wave that is both powerful and unpredictable.

They worry that Gingrich would be an erratic opponent, and therefore harder to handle than the relatively predictable Romney. Running against him may prove more difficult than it looks at first blush.

“It would be a nastier, more intense campaign,” said the Democrat close to the White House. “Newt has a history of getting people to rise to his bait. The president would have to stay mellow, steady Eddie.”

The Obama campaign has been pretty consistent about viewing Romney as the likely opponent — to the extent that the Romney campaign has started harping on how “obsessed” Obama is with Romney. It’ll be an interesting shift if they start targeting Gingrich.

Tags: Newt Gingrich

McMorris Rodgers Endorses Romney

Washington congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, vice chair of the House GOP conference, announced her endorsement of Mitt Romney today.

Tags: Mitt Romney

Ann Romney Highlights Romneys’ Long Marriage

Last week, Politico reported that one of the Romney campaign’s strategies was to “highlight his stable family while leaving an unspoken impression about [Newt] Gingrich’s two divorces.”

Via The Hill’s Christian Heinze, Ann Romney was on Fox and Friends this morning, pushing that message, talking about how they had been married for 42 years. 

Video:

Tags: Mitt Romney

‘Strong’

Rick Perry is spending $1 million airtime for his TV ads for the three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, reports Politico. The campaign released another ad today, called ‘Strong’:

Text of the ad, as provided by the campaign:

I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m a Christian, but you don’t need to be in the pew every Sunday to know there’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school. As President, I’ll end Obama’s war on religion. And I’ll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage. Faith made America strong. It can make her strong again. I’m Rick Perry and I approve this message. 

It will be interesting to see if the ad gets Perry any traction with evangelicals in Iowa. Perry’s been outspoken about his faith in the past — including his August day of prayer in Houston — but it hasn’t seemed to have translated into any especially high levels of support from evangelicals so far.

Tags: Rick Perry

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Quayle Explains Romney Endorsement

Dan Quayle explains his endorsement of Mitt Romney in an op-ed in the Arizona Republic:

[Romney] has proven over and over again that he is a leader. He has demonstrated he is capable of making tough decisions and turning things around. He is a man of integrity. He understands budgets and financial markets. He balanced budgets and met a bottom line. He is strong on national defense and has a deep love of the principles that make America great.

Mitt Romney has what it takes to be a great president of the United States, and that is why I enthusiastically endorse him for president.

Full piece here

Tags: Mitt Romney

Trump Rates Romney, Perry, Bachmann

From the Washington Post:

Trump writes that Mitt Romney has been “spectacular” in the debates and that the former Massachusetts governor is “a much different guy” in private than he is in public, describing him as “warm and engaging.”

“He gets criticized for changing his opinions, or ‘flip flopping,’ but over a lifetime I’ve seen many people who don’t change and they always get left behind,” Trump writes. “Smart people learn things, so they change their minds. Only stupid people never change their minds.” …

Trump writes that he found Texas Gov. Rick Perry to be “much different from what you see in the debates.. . .so forceful and strong.” …

Trump describes Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) as “a real worker bee.” He notes that she visited his office “more than once” and that “no matter what happens with her run for the White House she’s got a great political future ahead of her.”

Donald Trump, of course, will be moderating a debate sponsored by Newsmax in Iowa December 27.

Tags: Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry

Romney Endorsed by Three Tennessee House Members

Mitt Romney continues to shore up his support among elected Republicans, announcing today that Tennessee Republican Reps. Jimmy Duncan, Diane Black, and Phil Roe have endorsed him. 

Tags: Mitt Romney

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Gingrich, Romney, Paul Top Polls in Iowa and NH

Results from NBC News/Marist poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers: Newt Gingrich (24 percent), Mitt Romney (17 percent), Ron Paul (16 percent), Herman Cain (9 percent), Rick Perry (8 percent), Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum (5 percent), and Jon Huntsman (2 percent).

Results from NBC News/Marist poll of likely voters in New Hampshire primary: Mitt Romney (38 percent), Newt Gingrich (23 percent), Ron Paul (15 percent), Jon Huntsman (9 percent), Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann (3 percent), Herman Cain (2 percent), and Rick Santorum (1 percent).

Tags: Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul

Schlafly Endorses Bachmann

Phyllis Schlafly has endorsed Michele Bachmann, reports the Des Moines Register. “Most important, Michele has the courage to be a leader among her peers,” Schlafly said in a statement. “She is a real champion in speaking up for values we care about. Michele is a woman of faith and the mother of a beautiful family. She has a 100 percent pro-life record and is a strong supporter of traditional marriage.”

Tags: Michele Bachmann

Cain’s Wife Didn’t Know About Ginger White

Herman Cain told the Union Leader today that his wife did not know of his friendship with Ginger White, nor that he had helped her out financially until White came forward to accuse Cain of a 13-year affair. 

UPDATE: Post has been corrected. 

Tags: Herman Cain

Romney Blasts Obama on Israel

Mitt Romney issues this statement on President Obama’s comments about Israel:

President Obama, in New York to raise campaign cash, told a group of prospective donors that ‘We don’t compromise when it comes to Israel’s security.’ That would be great news, if it were true. Unfortunately, under the Obama Administration, U.S.-Israeli relations have hit a low not seen since the Jimmy Carter years. It is not merely the way that President Obama has disparaged Israel’s prime minister in public and private. U.S. policy itself is at issue. Whether the question is peace talks with the Palestinians, or defining Israel’s borders, or keeping Iran from getting nuclear weapons, the administration has repeatedly scanted Israel’s interests. Words uttered behind closed doors in a campaign fundraiser in New York are one thing. Actions that have repeatedly thrown Israel under the bus are another.

Tags: Mitt Romney

‘Energy Jobs’

The Perry campaign released this morning a new TV ad touting his stance on energy, and the job that could be created if some energy-related regulations were slashed:

Tags: Rick Perry

Cain’s Lawyer Asks For White’s Phone Records

Herman Cain’s lawyer, Lin Wood, is asking Ginger White’s lawyer for the phone records that she has cited as proof that she and Cain regularly talked, reports the Associated Press.

Tags: Herman Cain

Romney’s Plan to Halt Gingrich Surge

Politico reports:

Mitt Romney’s campaign advisers insist they’re no more scared of Newt Gingrich than the candidates who’ve surged before — but they’re already rolling out a playbook that shows they know the latest alarm isn’t a drill. …

They’ll point out Gingrich’s past policy shifts which can protect them from attacks against Romney’s own inconsistencies. They’ll highlight Gingrich’s conservative apostasies as a hedge against Romney’s own moderate views. And they’ll highlight his stable family while leaving an unspoken impression about Gingrich’s two divorces.

The plan to increase the attention to Romney’s wife of 42 years and five sons in the hopes of sparking more conversation about Gingrich’s three marriages without raising the topic themselves is one of several subtle offensives. Another is the barrage of surrogate conference calls this week that they meant in part to remind Gingrich of their massive organizational advantage if he decides to lob an attack.

Arguably, Romney got the better of Gingrich the one time the two men sparred directly in a debate — when Romney pointed out that Gingrich had, too, supported an individual mandate at one point in time — and it will be interesting to see if Romney can continue to strike successfully at Gingrich or if a better-prepared Gingrich will be able to play defense formidably. 

Tags: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich

The Trump Primary

Newt Gingrich will meet with Donald Trump Monday at Trump Tower, reports Politico. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain have all previously met with the real estate mogul.

Bachmann went so far last night as to say that she would consider Trump as a potential vice president, reports GOP12.

Tags: Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich

Romney Told Baier Interview Was ‘Overly Aggressive’

And the fallout from Mitt Romney’s interview with Fox News host Bret Baier that aired Tuesday night continues. In an interview with fellow Fox News host Bill O’Reilly last night, Baier said that Romney had complained afterwards that the interview was “overly aggressive.”

Video:

Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman’s campaign is out with a web video attacking Romney using footage from the Baier interview:

I’ve written before about Romney’s non-flip-flop on climate change, and as usual, the shortness of these clips makes it hard to tell if there is any context that would be relevant. For instance, if Romney is saying other states should adopt Romneycare, that’s very different than saying the federal government should have adopted Romneycare — but seeing the program as a “national model” could mean either scenario. 

Tags: Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney

Haley to Endorse Before Iowa Caucuses

South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who has been courted extensively by the GOP presidential candidates, said yesterday that she will definitely make an endorsement before the Iowa caucuses are held, reports The Hill.

Tags: The Whole Gang

‘Huntsman’s Back’

Jon Huntsman’s daughters do a parody version of Justin Timberlake’s Sexyback, dismissing the rest of the GOP field as a “circus act” while touting their dad’s candidacy:

Tags: Jon Huntsman

Huntsman to Host Twitter Q & A

Jon Huntsman is trying to a novel approach to reach out to voters: he’ll answer questions on twitter this afternoon. “Trying something new. Will answer your q’s on Twitter tomorrow at 4:45 ET. Ask q’s using #q4jon. Should be fun!” he tweeted yesterday. 

Speaking of Huntsman, Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough made an interesting case in an op-ed published yesterday that Huntsman has been more consistently conservative than Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney. 

Tags: Jon Huntsman

Romney Nabs Key Florida Endorsements

Mitt Romney picked up three significant endorsements in Florida today: House Foreign Relations chair Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and former long-time House member Lincoln Diaz-Balart. In 2008, all three endorsed John McCain.

“The endorsements of the Miami Cuban-American leaders is a leading indicator that Romney is making a big push in Florida for one of its most crucial voting blocs in the state’s Republican primary,” notes the Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo.

Tags: Mitt Romney

Ex–N.H. GOP Chair Slams Perry and Arpaio

In a piece for NHJournal.com, Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican party, slams Rick Perry for campaigning with Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the Granite State:

Memo to Perry (and Romney, for that matter): A hard-line, anti-immigrant position is not especially popular in New Hampshire, even among likely Republican primary voters. In 2008, John McCain won the primary with a Gingrich-like position on immigration reform. A June, 2011 UNH / Boston Globe survey asked New Hampshire primary voters, “Would you support or oppose a program giving illegal immigrants now living in the United States the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements?” 42% of likely Republican primary voters supported a path to legal status, as did 54% of undeclared voters and 72% of likely Democratic primary voters.

Tags: Rick Perry

Social Conservatives Say Bachmann Can Battle On

Despite being generally ignored in the presidential debates and struggling with deflated poll numbers, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) may still have a shot at winning the Republican nomination — at least, that’s what some social conservative leaders think.

Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of the Family Leader, an Iowa group associated with Focus on the Family, said Bachmann retains an advantage in his state.

“I would argue that she probably has the best state-wide organization right now,” he told National Review. “And the people that helped her win the straw poll in many ways are still with her. The issue is that you’re no longer competing in a 17,000-person straw poll, you’re competing in a 125,000-person caucus. And so the pie got bigger. And not only did the pie get bigger, but you had a couple of candidates get a lot of attention, whether that be Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry, so this is varsity competition at minimum. And so, I would not count Michele Bachmann out of this at all.”

Rod Martin, a social conservative leader from Florida, agrees. The founder of TheVanguard.org and president of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies considers that there is “still a pathway for her to emerge.”

“I think it’s a long shot, obviously,” he told National Review. “I don’t think she’s completely over, and I hope her career isn’t — I don’t think people begin to realize how brilliant Michele Bachmann is. The more time I’ve spent around her, the more impressed I’ve been.”

In Martin’s view, her future as a candidate rests entirely on how she does in the Iowa caucus.

“She’s gonna have to pull a rabbit out of a hat right there, there’s no question,” he said. “And likewise, probably, as has been the case all through this selection process, Gingrich will probably stumble, and she’ll need to inherit some of his people.”

Gary Bauer, the president of American Values, said he understands the challenges Bachmann faces as an underdog with poor showing in the polls.

“Gosh, having been a long, long, long, long shot myself, it used to irritate the heck out of me when people were inviting me to leave,” he said. “She has been, I think, outstanding in the debates and so forth, and at one point was doing quite well — now seems to have less of that traction, but I wouldn’t really urge anybody to drop out before Iowa and New Hampshire.”

This presidential primary in particular is open to an upset victory, Bauer said, adding that he doesn’t understand why Santorum hasn’t won more support: “There’s so much in the political election cycle that’s hard to logically understand, and I think in this cycle, the chances for surprise or upsets or new developments is even greater than normal.”

And Tom Minnery, Focus on the Family’s vice president of public policy, said Evangelical Christian voters still love Bachmann.

“She has wonderful positions on issues that are important to social conservatives,” he said, “but it has always been difficult to rise to the presidency from the House of Representatives, and I think she’s experiencing that difficulty. But we’re very proud of the way she espouses strong positions on the issues.”

But does she still have a chance?

“Yea, she has some chance, certainly.”

Tags: Michele Bachmann

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