Michigan Republicans were dazed and confused after the stunning events of
last week's primary. Over in Ohio, the GOP was briefly stoic, and is now
growing more nervous by the day. Bush backers in the state, both positive
and confident only a week ago, are showing the visible signs of nail biting.
Even Ken Blackwell's endorsement of Bush has so far failed to provide much
reinforcement for Bushies in the state as the Super Tuesday deadline nears.
Not that they should relax, but state GOPers backing Bush should show a
little more confidence.
Mr. Blackwell, the popular conservative Secretary of State and former Forbes
front man, announced his support for Bush last Thursday in what the
Columbus Dispatch called a "ringing endorsement." Blackwell is well
known nationally for his support of the flat tax and other conservative
causes. In Ohio, however, he is sometimes seen as a maverick willing to buck
the party establishment much like Sen. McCain. The Blackwell endorsement is
a welcome positive for Bush who has been feeling the heat since his twin
losses in Arizona and Michigan.
However, a few stumbles by Bush in the Buckeye State aren't putting Bush
backers at ease.
First, there was the recent mix up in the handling of a Cuyahoga County
Lincoln Day dinner invite (and uninvite) of McCain. Apparently, McCain had
tentatively been invited to speak at the annual event in Cleveland before
party leaders decided it was unwise to allow the senator such a visible
campaign opportunity given their support for Gov. Bush. The last minute
dropping of McCain's invitation was largely a result of poor communication
and bad timing, but it had the appearance of a heavy-handed nixing of the
event by Gov. Taft. Second, in the continuing saga of the Bob Jones
University visit, the Bush camp released a statement from U.S. senator and
former Gov. George Voinovich, condemning the accusations of Bush
anti-Catholic bias during the Michigan primary. The problem was that in a
rush to get the statement out, they had not cleared it with the Voinovich.
Both incidents were covered in multiple articles in the state's major
papers. Neither of these gaffes involved serious scandal but they took up
media space that otherwise could have been focused on more important issues.
As in many other states, Bush has nailed down the support of the vast
majority of GOP officials in Ohio. In addition to Blackwell, Taft,
Voinovich, and a host of others have promised to work diligently for Bush.
In the wake of a defeat in Michigan despite the support of Gov. John Engler,
this may not be enough. Blackwell, in endorsing Bush, remarked that Michigan
proved that you could punch a whole through an asbestos firewall, but added
that Ohio was going to build an "iron wall."
Ohio Republican's are caught in the same trap as the rest of the country.
Does McCain's success in pulling in Democrats and independents really
signify his "crossover" abilities, or do they simply represent a potential
Trojan horse that will split the party? There has been a lot of discussion
around the Statehouse about the apparent "hijacking" of the primary process
by Michigan Democrats. In addition, a number of conservatives seem highly
suspicious of McCain. Bush is popular with Republicans in here in large part
because of his stance on issues that resonate with them: tax cuts, bringing
power back to the states, school choice, etc. Personality, McCain's
strength, is not necessarily a key to politics in Ohio. Even supporters will
admit that Gov. Taft is a better manager than a campaigner or public
speaker. Ohio likes an orderly process where the party decides who is next
in line and then falls in behind the chosen leader. This is not always
popular with all the various blocks that make up the GOP but outright
rebellion is rare.
Television ads were running throughout the state this weekend with Bush
emphasizing his "Reformer with Results" theme and McCain reaching out to
conservatives as a "proud Reagan Republican." McCain made a sweep through
the state in person as well, with solid but not overwhelming crowds.
Although, many politicos and citizens are excited about the prospect of Ohio
having an impact on the nomination process, momentum is building slowly.
Even so called "rock-ribbed" Republicans from Hamilton county, according to
the Cincinnati Inquirer, are waiting to hear more from the candidates
before deciding. In fact, the only move that might clinch the state for
either candidate would be an endorsement from Ken Griffey Jr. — his
recent signing by the Cincinnati Reds, in contrast to the primary battle,
was headline news for a couple of days.
What may really save Bush here on March 7 is his support among conservatives
and the more moderate GOP establishment. Given the fact that the Democrats
will also be having a primary here next Tuesday, another Michigan result is
an unlikely scenario. Ohio is still Bush country. Perhaps Taft and Blackwell
can deliver what Engler could not — a Bush victory in a populous
Midwestern state. Perhaps, nail biters in the Ohio GOP aren't taking
anything for granted.
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