What a difference a week makes. Just over a week ago, the GOP primary battle was national news, something happening to other people. Some were even worried that moving the primary to March 7 had failed to bring the state to the center of attention as intended. Now, just a week later, Ohio is basking in the glow of candidate visits and the chance to have a significant impact on the race. Bush offers Ohio Republicans a chance to put him over the top; and McCain supporters know that for them, the state is almost a must-win. As a result, Bush and McCain both embarked on whirlwind tours of the "Three C’s" (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati).
What is interesting about their visits here is the contrasting styles and messages. McCain continues to sell himself as a centrist reformer willing to take on special interests and "give the government back to the people." McCain also touts his leadership skills and his ability to beat Al Gore. The people interviewed on the street seem taken with McCain the man. They speak of his honesty, integrity, and his presence on the stump, the way he suffered for his country, and his willingness to buck the system. Ironically, McCain the influential veteran politician is appealing to voters’ growing cynicism about politics as usual. If you think the problem with government is too much money and not enough straight talk, McCain is your man.
Bush, on the other hand, is again running on "compassionate conservatism," with an emphasis on his record in Texas. At a suburban high school outside Columbus, Bush seemed comfortable and recharged for the battle ahead. The Bush camp flexed its establishment muscle with an impressive array of GOP leaders to warm up the crowd. In attendance were US Reps. John Kasich and Deb Pryce, Governor Taft, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the Speaker of the Ohio House and President of the Ohio Senate, and half a dozen other State Representatives and Senators. Kasich gave an impassioned speech calling on young people to seek out their destiny and to never sell themselves short. His strong call for limited government and personal responsibility meshed well with Bush’s themes. Governor Taft made a valiant effort in following Kasich, but was quickly eclipsed by the entry of Bush himself. After the long wait the crowd was pumped to finally glimpse the candidate and they gave him a warm welcome.
Bush was on target and forceful in his call for a compassionate conservatism that blends a belief in limited government and personal responsibility with a government that protects the most vulnerable. Bush started and ended with riffs on compassion — emphasizing the importance of his faith and his family. At times his rhetoric of touching every willing heart seemed overwrought, but he always brought it back to its impact on policy. Lower marginal tax rates mean upward mobility for single mothers; accountability in Federal funding of education means better schools; and medical saving accounts and education IRA’s mean giving families control of their future.
So what’s going to happen? It is still hard to say, but Bush is clearly the confident frontrunner again. According to recent polling done by the University of Cincinnati, Bush’s lead has been cut in half, but still stands at a commanding 17 points. The unknowns remain voter turnout, impulse voting, and crossover. Mike DeWine, the only prominent statewide official backing McCain and his constant companion here in Ohio, claims victory is possible and gushes about all of the excitement the candidate has generated. In an interesting twist, a handful of Ohio’s most conservative state legislators are quietly backing McCain — including the dean of the Ohio House, Rep. Bob Netzley. Given McCain’s claim that Bush lacks strength in states that have a broad cross-section of voters, a solid Bush victory is a potentially devastating possibility.
After wins in Virginia and Washington, the Bushies are confident; but they have no intention of dropping their guard in Ohio. For what it is worth, I think most Republicans here see McCain as a threat to the delicate balance of their success and will resist his crusade to rock the boat. Unlike in Michigan, undecided Independents and Democrats lack the motivation to "crash" the Republican Party and so will have minimal impact. I see a Bush victory but the margin is tough to call.
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