The turnout in today’s Ohio primary is likely to be huge. Predictions are as high as a third of registered voters will vote. Anyone other than McCain would be writing Ohio off as hopeless — but the volatile nature of this primary urges caution. The stakes seem incredibly high, and the average Ohioan feels giddy at the power placed in his hands. Meanwhile, pundits and politicos nervously bite their fingernails. This is fun.
Indeed, Ohio continues to bask in the glow of the media spotlight generated by “Titanic Tuesday.” National and even international media have descended on the state to search for clues to the outcome of a key battle in a day loaded with important primaries. The GOP primary’s intriguing question is still being asked statewide: Can McCain win? If traditional evidence means anything, no. This campaign, however, has been anything but traditional.
McCain has refused to concede Ohio despite polls showing solid Bush leads among likely voters. McCain and his faithful companion Mike Dewine again thundered into Ohio over the weekend drawing strong and excited crowds but still seeking the desperately needed GOP voters. Independents and some Democrats seem to be drawn to his persona and his iconoclastic crusade. People bring their children, friends and coworkers to rallies and stand for hours to get a glimpse of the “Straight Talk Express.” His volunteers seem energized just to be a part of it all.
The core problem for McCain here, as elsewhere, is his inability to convince a majority of Republicans to rally to his banner. His recent foray into attacks against religious conservatives — no matter how nuanced he intended it to be — and his increasingly negative attacks on Bush have had little effect and may in fact backfire. Unlike its rival and neighbor Michigan, Ohio is not known for its rebellious nature (for those of you not familiar with the Midwest, there is something of a rivalry between Ohio and the state to the north). Bush support amongst likely GOP voters is as high as 61%, only a massive independent and Democrat turnout could save McCain.
In Ohio only those voters who have voted in a party primary in the last two years are considered affiliated with a particular party, the rest are considered unaffiliated. Unaffiliated voters who want to vote McCain must choose a Republican ballot and will be considered Republicans from that point on. Democrats wanting to switch parties are supposed to be challenged and asked to sign a card identifying themselves with the
Republican Party and its goals. With a Democratic presidential primary, however competitive, and a host of local officials and issues on the ballot as well, it is unlikely that large numbers of D’s will switch. In fact most voters vote for one party or the other regardless of their official designation. For a variety of reasons only a few will really be true “swing voters.”
Bush has built his solid lead here by campaigning on the issues popular here: tax cuts, local control of education, and personal responsibility. He has also used the party structure to his benefit. On top of building an impressive grassroots organization, Bush has tapped popular statewide officials to campaign directly on his behalf. Gov. Taft and a host of other officials were knocking on doors throughout the state over the weekend. Many of the officials are popular and powerful in their respective regions: Gov. Taft in Cincinnati, former Cleveland mayor and now Senator Voinivich in Cleveland, and U.S. Rep. John Kaisich (a hugely popular figure in Ohio) in Columbus. Again, unlike Michigan these figures are generally popular and lack the polarizing edge of a Governor Engler. Ironically, McCain’s focus on the state and the shock of Michigan continues to energize the Bush camp which has been working tirelessly.
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