Titanic Tuesday turned out to be rather anti-climactic for Ohio. 7:30 PM: Polls close. 7:39: A Bush victory is declared. The victory was comprehensive, with large leads in virtually every county across the state. Does this sizable Bush victory mean the "establishment" won? Yes and no.
The GOP leadership team here certainly deserves a good deal of credit for Bush’s victory, especially its size. The Bush team was energized and organized in a way McCain simply could not match. Despite all the media gloating about Bush being broke, the fact is the money was well spent. The money, spent long before the campaign advertising began, put people on the ground who were able to organize phone banks, literature drops, and e-mail alerts on a massive scale. This trench warfare does not always get headlines, but it means votes. The media will likely report this as the power of entrenched interests, but it is actually just plain hard work. State leaders did not just sign their name to the Bush campaign; they actually went out and fought for it. This is a positive sign. If the GOP can create the same kind of excitement and teamwork in the coming months, it will bode well for Bush and the GOP come November.
Candidate Bush should also take heart from his success here in Ohio. His message of tax cuts, local control of education, and a restoration of personal responsibility play wells in this populous and diverse state. In good times people are not looking for crusades but for solid responsible leadership. Bush can make the claim that his record of success in Texas and his state-oriented perspective are best suited to take us beyond the Clinton-Gore years. Gore will be relentless but his policies are either defensive — laying claim to the "longest economic expansion in history" and promising not to screw it up — or out of touch with most Midwesterners — unlimited abortion on demand, race-based quotas, Washington control of education, universal health care, etc. Bush must convince voters that his approach is stable — not a risk to the good times — and yet dynamic — ready to bring fresh ideas to the nation’s problems. If Bush can do that, I believe, he will have strong support in the crucial Midwest.
Everything is not rosy, however, here in the Buckeye State. There is the potential for an intra-party battle between grassroots conservatives and more moderate statewide officials. Social conservatives, gun owners, and other local groups are looking to make a bigger impact on state policy. With term limits kicking in here, the makeup of the General Assembly could change drastically. As a result, there were a number of hotly contested primary battles at the state level. In fact, three incumbents (legislators that had been appointed to fill a vacancy) lost yesterday. All across the state, the fallout from these various races, from central-committee members to county sheriffs and the General Assembly, is beginning to reverberate. It remains to be seen if these skirmishes will break out into a distracting and potentially destructive war. A term-limited legislature is uncharted territory for Ohio
What this means in the short term is that moderates and conservatives must keep to the common task of defeating Al Gore in November, while debating the direction of their party at the state level. John McCain in many ways pushed conservatives towards Bush; Bush will need to walk a careful line in order to solidify his base while wooing Democrats and Independents. If last night is any indication, Ohio stands ready to help.
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