Here is his take:
(1) KC has played 2/3 of their games at home and hasn’t shown an ability to win on the road; 15-7 [now 15-8] at home; 3-8 on the road.
(2) Even that [15-8] home record is built on SIX walk-off wins. Absurd. One-third of KC’s total wins on the year have come in games where they were tied or behind going into the ninth inning at home. Even if they win only half of those games, still a great pace, they’re 15-18 and 7.5 games out of first. Is anybody talking about “contending this year” under that scenario?
(3) Jeff Francoeur is 15th in all of Major League Baseball in Runs Created, 6th in Home Runs, 11th in RBI, 3rd in XBH and 13th in OPS. Regression, meet mean. So calling up Hosmer now instead of waiting five weeks when he would have been denied Super-2 status only makes sense if you believe they can keep this up.
There are two rejoinders to that:
(1) Improved fan interest and morale will generate some extra revenue. Not crazy. Last two home crowds have been two of the four biggest since Opening Day. But again, it’s only the delta in revenue you get over the next five weeks that counts and under favorable assumptions that’s maybe half a million bucks. Factor in also the time value of money as you get that revenue now and the costs are back-loaded.
(2) If the Indians come back to Earth and if the Tigers continue to struggle, then the Royals could dance between the raindrops until July 3rd.
A couple more stolen wins [before then] and these guys really could be around .500 and in it at the halfway mark in a battered division. Maybe the earlier start for Hosmer helps him to contribute more down the stretch this year. In June we could see [Mike] Montgomery, [Everett] Teaford and [Danny] Duffy arrive. It’s not mathematically impossible that this stays interesting. . . .
The Royals are in the Bronx this evening to start a three-game set against the Yankees. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. EDT.