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In previous weeks, the press had reported various Independence Day threats, for example to U.S. nuclear-power plants, and in late June a secret FBI alert to law-enforcement agencies was made public. The level of intercepted "chatter" between terrorists was reportedly up to levels approaching that before September 11. There was no credible threat, no specific targets, just a need for heightened alertness on an important and symbolic holiday. Abu Gaith raised public concerns when he threatened renewed "martyrdom-seeking operations" and said "America has to get ready and be prepared and put on the safety belts as we will come to them from quarters which they little expect." Incidentally, for those who just can't get enough of Abu Gaith, an Arab satellite channel is preparing a documentary on his life, featuring, among other things, video of him playing volleyball in happier times. He had introduced the bin Laden tape from last April in which al Qaeda finally admitted credit for Sept. 11, a claim he repeated in his most recent posting. Americans may best remember him from his television performance last Oct. 14, when he said that "the storm of airplanes will not be calmed ... We tell and recommend Muslims in the United States and Britain, and those who reject the American policies, not to take airplanes and not to live in towers and high buildings. ... When al Qaeda promises, it delivers." But if major attacks on the United States were planned for July 4 they were not executed successfully (the LAX incident seems deliberate but ad hoc) and the promised bin Laden video never surfaced. If al Qaeda delivers, I'll bet a lot of the pizzas are free. All of this has fueled the debate over whether Osama bin Laden is still alive. It is an intriguing question, but difficult to address beyond the level of speculation and of limited practical utility. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld stated recently that "trying to personify the problem is catchy for headlines, but it's not terribly useful in the global war on terrorism." He notes that al Qaeda is bigger than bin Laden, and the terrorist threat is bigger than al Qaeda. Focusing only on bin Laden could divert attention from U.S. strategic objectives in the war as a whole. Yet the terrorists are trying to keep bin Laden the center of attention, whether he is alive or dead. Al-Sahab ("the clouds") productions is making something of a cottage industry of releasing al Qaeda videos. They produced the recently released suicide hijacker Ahmad al-Ghamidi's will, and promise to release footage shot last fall of bin Laden under fire in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, every time they release the old material, they implicitly raise the question, don't they have anything new, and if not, why? Bin Laden has not made a verifiable statement since December, when he looked definitely the worse for wear. If he is alive he is under extraordinary pressure from Allied forces hunting him, and the reward money is still there for anyone clever enough to figure out a way to collect it. He could just be lying low. He has done it before. He disappeared for a time in 1999 when he temporarily lost confidence in his Taliban protectors. He might be holed up in a house somewhere in the mountains on the Afghan/Pakistan border, immobile, taking few visitors, recuperating, and planning his next attacks. But the problem with staying publicly silent this long — assuming it is voluntary — is that it is hard to keep a highly decentralized global terrorist network up and running without its charismatic leader. Command, control, and coordination become difficult, though certainly not impossible. Al Qaeda seems adept at using the Internet, which is ironic since the network was invented was to facilitate communications between U.S. command nodes in the event of nuclear war or some other catastrophe. In this sense al Qaeda is using the system in the manner it was intended. Of course you can never know who is listening, so they probably also utilize the same halawa networks that allowed them to make invisible money transactions the old fashioned way — big wads of cash or bags of diamonds handled by trusted couriers going door to door. Controlling the money must be another important concern. This is an organization composed of criminals with vast amounts of untraceable funds, and no accountability. A multimillion-dollar enterprise like this would have a natural propensity to loot itself. The Wall Street Journal's recent revelations of infighting in al Qaeda number-two man Ayman al-Zawahri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad is illustrative. He chastised an underling for buying a $470 fax machine, and the junior terrorist basically responded, "Take this jihad and shove it." My guess is the fax machine went with him. It is reasonable to suspect that some intermediaries in the al Qaeda network who have access to much larger sums of money would abscond with them the moment they knew the CEO had been forced into early retirement. Finally, al Qaeda has to figure out how to inspire and motivate the troops. Maybe the terrorists expected a few reverses on the pathway to paradise, but they could not have thought they would be losing this badly. The Taliban overthrown; Afghanistan no longer a safe haven; follow-on attacks preempted; affiliated terror organizations on the run; important leaders captured or killed; thousands of their foot soldiers in custody; no sign of the U.S. being deterred or losing momentum. It cannot be easy for their side to go to work in the morning. In his most recent statement, Abu Gaith gamely noted that "war has ups and downs.... One day, the Muslims defeat the infidels, and another day the infidels defeat the Muslims.... Anyone who thinks that this road is easy and strewn with roses is mistaken." He sounds like the manager of a losing ball team trying to explain why they are 20 back at the All-Star break. Bin Laden's response — he blames the team. After all, it can't be his fault. He sees himself as a messianic figure, a true holy warrior, an exemplar to his people, waiting for the Muslim ummah to unite behind him in his global jihad. But they just aren't cutting the muster. In a recently posted (though undated) exchange of poems with his 14-year-old son Hamzah, his feeling of disappointment in his followers is explicit. His son asks about the dangers they face, the bombs falling, people dying; he seems bewildered that the golden future he had expected had not materialized. "What has happened for us to be chased by danger?" he asks. "Immortality is our destiny should God Almighty desire victory for us. Tell me father something useful and brief about what I see." His father, exasperated, responds, "Suffice it that I am full of grief and sighs. What can I say if we are living in a world of laziness and discontent? What can I say to a world that is blind in both sight and perception?" He goes on to wonder how long "real men will be in short supply." It would be helpful if bin Laden made his presence among the living unambiguous — for example made a videotape holding a recent newspaper front page, or said something time-dependent like, "I am most gladdened that Allah willed that Germany shut out the United States in the World Cup quarterfinal." Better yet, he could hold a live press conference in a predetermined open-air location surrounded by his closest advisers. That would be a video worth watching, especially the feed from Predator-cam. — James S. Robbins is a national-security analyst & NRO contributor. |
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June 23, Sulyman Abu Ghaith, a Kuwaiti expatriate, former teacher and
official spokesman of al Qaeda, posted an audio file on the terrorist
website 
