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July 2, 2002, 12:25 p.m. The Watts Story Why he’s really leaving. By Timothy P. Carney

eneath the headline, "Congress's Only Black Republican Will Quit," on Tuesday's front page, the New York Times reports that "in 1998, Mr. Watts was elected chairman of the House Republican Conference."

It's good the Times reported that today, because in November of '98, when the GOP elected him to that post, the "paper of record" barely mentioned it. Their profile of him ended up on page 31.

The story is similar across the wasteland of the liberal media. When Republicans put a black man in the highest position of House leadership ever, the Times has a blackout on it, and CNN mentions it only three times. Now that he's quit, he's on front pages and took up the entirety of CNN's Monday programming.

If you wondered about the reason for the newfound interest, Inside Politics hostess Judy Woodruff spelled out the agenda in a taped interview with the congressman. "What do you think it says about the Republican party," Woodruff asked, with an agitated voice, "that the only Republican African-American serving in the Congress is choosing to step down?"

We all know what she was implying, and frankly what the day's worth of attention was meant to imply: Blacks are unwelcome in the Republican party, because the party is racist.

Well, that's not why Watts left. Watts gave the mandatory Washington reason: He wanted to spend more time with his family. Coming from Watts, this is actually plausible and probably true to an extent. But something made him like Congress less now than he did two years ago.

It was frustration. Watts sees himself as a policy guy. He made repeated efforts to increase his role in forming Republican policy, and repeatedly he fell short.

After rising like a meteor to the No. 4 spot in the House GOP leadership, Watts hoped he could move up. The conference chairman is in charge of forming the Republicans' message to the press and the public. While Watts has mixed reviews in that regard, the general consensus is that, for a Republican, he did a good job. Certainly, the media has a harder time demonizing congressional Republicans today than they did in 1998. Watts is partly to thank for that.

But he wanted more. When Majority Leader Dick Armey (Tex.) announced he was retiring, Watts made an almost spastic run for his post and the whip spot being vacated by Tom DeLay (Tex.). Neither of those efforts went anywhere. Soon afterwards, he tried to reshape the conference role so that he would have more say in policy issues.

Watts was stuck at No. 4, and so time with the family seemed a lot more appealing. Watts has a new book coming out, called What Color is a Conservative? He hopes this is the beginning of a career as an idea guy on the right — the "Black Bill Bennett" is the expression some Oklahoma Republicans use to describe his ambitions.

Like an apartment opening up in Manhattan, or Packers's season tickets freeing up in Green Bay, Watts's pending vacancy created a swarm of contenders. Before Watts had even finished his announcement yesterday, Rep. Deborah Pryce (Ohio) sent out a press release announcing her candidacy.

The race began not only while Watts's body was still warm, but while he still had a pulse.

Last week, conservative Rep. J. D. Hayworth (Ariz.) called together a hundred Republican congressmen to talk about his run, and assembled a ten-man steering committee for his candidacy. Rep. Jim Ryun (Kan.) is also running for the spot.

Whispers on the Hill say that DeLay is secretly behind Pryce. While House Republicans would benefit from not having four white males at the top of their leadership, Pryce worries many in the GOP. She, unlike Watts, Armey, and DeLay, is not a conservative. Her National Right to Life rating last year was only 40 percent .

Going by the American Conservative Union's (ACU) ratings, Pryce has a lifetime score of 78 percent , compared to Watts's 93 percent and Hayworth and Ryun at 99 percent (those last two have each voted wrong once in their tenures). Hayworth is also very well liked and ebullient.

The other vacancy Watts leaves is in the 4th district of Oklahoma. While Watts consistently won that seat easily, and Bush pulled in over 60 percent there in 2000, GOP retention here is not a sure bet.

About 68 percent of registered voters in the Norman-based district are Democrats. They are Dixie Democrats, but Democrats nonetheless. Former state house speaker Loyd Benson (D) is one of the logical choices to seek the seat, and he would be formidable. Benson, who had already announced his retirement from the state legislature, may not run in which case the Democrats' man could likely be attorney Keith Butler, who has been itching for a chance to run for Congress.

On the Republican side, the leading man is former Secretary of State Tom Cole. Cole was the state party chairman and is still Oklahoma's most influential political power broker. Eight years ago, he considered running, but instead talked Watts into doing it. Now, with his political chits around the state, he is in strong position to earn the GOP nod.

However, Cole's winning record suffered a blow recently when his anointed candidate to replace Rep. Steve Largent — Oklahoma's first lady Kathy Keating — lost in the primary for the special election. Looking to upset Cole are longtime political operative Marc Nuttle — who spearheaded Oklahoma's right-to-work campaign — and State Sen. Kathleen Wilcoxson.

There is one way in which Watts will not be replaced: Congressional Republicans in the 108th Congress will be whiter than a Ralph Nader rally. Republicans tout Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs-McDonald (R) running against Rep. Shelley Berkeley (D) and former N.J. Sec. of State Buster Soaries challenging Rep. Rush Holt (D). A victory by either of these Black Republicans, however, would be a major upset.

Watts is not done with politics. If he does not take an appointment, he will run again for something. Perhaps Oklahoma Sen. Don Nickles (R), who was practically born in the Senate, will get tired of his job if he can't win the majority-leader spot. Perhaps Dick Cheney will elect to move permanently to an undisclosed location.

But now the media doesn't have to struggle anymore to ignore the uncomfortable fact that some Republicans are black.

— Timothy P. Carney is a reporter for the Evans-Novak Political Report.