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August 07, 2002, 9:00 a.m. Dead Even in Maryland A Democratic stronghold could fall to the GOP this fall. By Bryan Preston

ead even. That's the latest poll result in Maryland's gubernatorial race. This is a bombshell, pure and simple. The contestants are current Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of Bobby Kennedy, and Republican Congressman Bob Ehrlich, and they're running neck-in-neck in a state that any Democrat, let alone a Kennedy, should easily win. But KKT is in trouble — she has the party machine behind her in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1, and in a state that's been a one-party affair for a generation, yet she's frittered away a double-digit margin in the past couple of months.

What's going on? First, Ehrlich has come out strong, not afraid to take her on and use her record to do it. In two terms in office, Townsend simply has nothing to show or brag about. A few years ago, she was given control of the state's juvenile justice system, and made a high-profile project out of its boot-camp rehab system. It quickly turned into a disaster, so much so that the governor had to take it away from her. Since then, she's been given no big projects, nothing cutting-edge to brag about. Ehrlich hasn't been overly aggressive, but thus far he hasn't run away from Townsend's record. He's used it nearly every chance he's had, and it's working — voters are starting to view Townsend as a mediocre talent.

Ehrlich also hasn't run away from nontraditional Republican voters. Recently the state's NAACP held a forum for the two leading candidates (who, incidentally have yet to win their primaries, but will). Ehrlich eagerly showed up full of confidence and articulated his campaign points well. Townsend at first said she had a schedule conflict, then said she'd appear but leave early; her campaign ended up orchestrating the event so that she would arrive, say her bit, and leave, never sharing the stage with Ehrlich. She looked like a coward, and as the voters listen to her speeches and public interviews, the reason for her reticence is clear: She's a bad public speaker. She gets flustered at the simplest press questions. She mangles sentences in ways that make President Bush sound like Sir Laurence Olivier. It's a problem, especially when your opponent is an especially able speaker, and Ehrlich is that. Ehrlich also favors legalizing slot machines at Maryland's racetracks, a move that many here believe will save the horse racing industry here. Townsend opposes slots, which will become a liability down the stretch.

But Ehrlich has a problem, which is the Maryland press. Baltimore Sun columnist Mike Olesker is leading the charge, offering up this racial smear in a recent column summing up the candidates' chances:

On some things, Robert Ehrlich is dead on the money.
He's on the money when he acknowledges that "my party" has not paid much attention to African-American voters for the last, oh, 40 years. And he's on the money when he says the Democratic Party instinctively takes black voters for granted. And he's on the money when he said, three nights ago at the NAACP gathering at the War Memorial, "This is a campaign that African-Americans should at least take a look at."

But he should hope they don't look too closely.

Olesker never justifies this statement. After a little obligatory beating up on Townsend's performance in the NAACP "debate," Olesker offers this gem:

The NAACP issues legislative report cards on all members of Congress. It is a fact that, in the eight years Ehrlich served in Washington, his score was always lowest, or second-lowest, among all Maryland representatives. It never exceeded 30 percent. In the last session, Connie Morella scored a 61. Wayne Gilchrest, 33. Roscoe Bartlett, 28.

Ehrlich scored 22 percent.

It's also a fact that, other than Morella, all the high scorers are Democrats, and the reason is of a piece with the NAACP's own behavior in recent years: While claiming to be a nonpartisan group, it's been obvious that the NAACP is actually a solid member of the Democrat coalition. Using its voting report card as a fair criterion is highly circular logic — they favor Democrats and don't like conservative Republicans (whom the NAACP has infamously linked to racially motivated murder in political ads), Ehrlich is a moderate-to-conservative Republican, the NAACP gives him a bad grade, and that's a reason to oppose him. It's nutty and obvious, but it works for a hack like Olesker.

His closing paragraph is a kicker:

In the matter of the American racial divide, we now have Ehrlich attempting to go where few Republicans have bothered to go. That's a healthy thing. But he has a history, and his party has a history. And beyond extending a hand, Ehrlich now has to explain why he would actually make a difference on race.

What is that history? Olesker never says, assuming that his readers know them by heart. So to what history is Olesker referring? That the GOP was founded on the issue of ending slavery, while Democrats north and south sought to preserve it? Or is it the GOP's history of favoring equality of opportunity for all while the Democrats favor opportunity for preferred groups? It's not Ehrlich's or the GOP's history that needs overcoming, just press bias against both.

Still, there is reason to hope Ehrlich will keep up the fight and win in November. He's chosen Michael Steele as his running mate, making Steele the first black to run for Maryland's #2 slot. Steele's presence on the ticket may make a significant difference with the voters, especially in majority-black Baltimore City. Ehrlich's literally taking the fight to the streets, dispatching teams of black supporters to city street corners to show that voters in Maryland do have a real choice.

It could happen — a fairly conservative Republican could win this fall in Maryland. He has the energy, the personality, and the momentum. Right now, the wind is at Bob Ehrlich's back. The question is, will the press let it stay there? If Ehrlich wins in Democrat-stronghold Maryland this fall, it will have seismic effects on the nation's political landscape.

— Bryan Preston is a writer and television producer. He is also the author of JunkYardBlog and lives with his wife and son in Towson, Md.