January 26, 2004, 9:39 a.m.
Dean Goes All In
Betting big in New Hampshire.

By Chip Griffin

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE — Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager, must be caught up in the poker craze that seems to be sweeping across America these days. Their activities over the weekend clearly indicate that the Dean campaign has decided to go "all in" with their chips in New Hampshire.

As anyone will know who has watched Celebrity Poker, The World Poker Tour, or any of the other TV shows about the card game that have proliferated in recent months, the popular tournament game of "No Limit Texas Hold'em" allows the player to bet all of the chips he has on one hand. In the terminology of the game, this is called going "all in."

Often, a player must go all in when his chips have dwindled to a precious few and he has no hope of surviving the tournament without a big win. And that's where Dean stands today. Without a strong showing in the Granite State, Howard Dean is as good as done. The former Vermont governor really has no choice but to bet big here.

And betting big he is. The Dean campaign has pulled TV ads in all states except New Hampshire. They are dumping 120,000 videotapes of the Diane Sawyer interview all over the state (enough for about 1 out of every 10 men, women, and children here). The reclusive "Doc Judy" has even begun to pop up almost as much as a whack-a-mole.

Will it pay off? It might. The (admittedly) notoriously unreliable tracking polls seem to indicate that Dean's freefall has abated and some even suggest a little recovery. These same surveys show that Dean's supporters are solid, with roughly three-quarters saying they won't change their mind. Of course, if you're still with Dean today, one has to figure it would take a tsunami to change your vote if the events of the past week haven't softened you. All in all, the Dean campaign has to be feeling better today than they did one week ago.

Now the chips are in and the cards are about to be turned.

— Chip Griffin is a political consultant in New Hampshire.