January 31, 2005, 8:31 a.m.
Going Steady
Talk of a House GOP-White House split on Social Security are premature.

By Eric Pfeiffer

ocial Security reform is doomed and the president's four-year marriage with House Republicans has ended in bitter separation. That's the story, according to hopeful media outlets like the Washington Post.

The president's adversaries point to House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas's "dead horse" comment and his recent appearance on Meet the Press. However, a look at his actual remarks provides an alternative take: "I really want to compliment the president for getting the discussion of what we do with Social Security on the table. As you well know, it had been the so-called third rail — touch it and you die — of politics for a long time. The president, by proposing a particular approach, putting more money in the money that's available, has led, I think, the society to a great service. We shouldn't be attacking his proposal even before it comes out. We should be complimenting him on discussing it. Now, let's look at solutions." When moderator Tim Russert specifically questioned Thomas about his "dead horse" comment, Thomas responded, "What I said was I hope we didn't have our friends on the other side of the aisle attacking the president's proposal once it's introduced, because once it's introduced, it becomes part of the legislative process. Suggest changes or suggest substitutions, but don't continue the arguments against the president's plan because it's now part of the legislative process. That would be beating a dead horse.... Had I said, 'You're barking up the wrong tree,' they may have accused me of being anti-environmentalist. So I've got to watch the old phrases that used to mean something when you say them."

While reform opponents enjoy their fractured-party fantasy, the president and congressional Republicans are getting down to business. Last week, President Bush met with Senate and House members. On Friday, many House Republicans took part in a retreat at the Greenbrier Hotel in White Sulfer Springs, West Virginia, with Treasury Secretary John Snow and several White House aides.

Still, the White House places a high value on Thomas and his sphere of influence. As Newsweek White House correspondent Holly Bailey tells NRO: "The White House is treating Bill Thomas with kid gloves right now because they know he has the power to make or break the president's Social Security push. This isn't Medicare or intelligence reform, where the president can threaten to cut a deal with democrats to leverage support among his party. He needs the full support of all Republicans, especially Thomas."

Word is that White House officials reached out to Thomas directly, requesting his input on what the president might say in his State of the Union address regarding Social Security. It's a new move for the White House, seeking outside collaboration on perhaps the only single event that is Bush's alone.

The most pressing concern that members of Congress now face is how the president's legacy-fulfilling plan will affect their immediate electoral prospects. During last Wednesday's press conference, President Bush gave a clear indicator, declaring, "What you're hearing a little bit of is whether or not it is worth the political price, and I think it is. I'm looking forward to leading the Congress and I'm looking forward to taking the issue to the American people.... I look forward to traveling the country and discussing this issue, similar to what President Clinton did."

While the comparison to Clinton may not be music to conservative ears, the strategy should be. The White House confirms that after his State of the Union speech, the president plans stops in Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas, and Florida. All are home to Democrat senators who could be swayed to support a reform plan. By taking the battle directly to the Democrats, the president not only increases his only likelihood of victory, but takes the heat off the handful of House Republicans in competitive districts. A visit to North Dakota would be Bush's first since March, 2001. According to the Lincoln Star Journal, Bush plans to visit Nebraska on February 2. The clear intention is to pressure Democratic Senator Ben Nelson. Bush employed a similar strategy in 2001 and 2003 to sway Nelson into supporting the president's tax cuts.

Thomas himself is a proponent of the president's strategy. Writing in The Hill, he noted, "The president's leadership is essential to bring members of Congress of both political parties together."

Liberals have been quick to jump on comments made by Thomas regarding race, gender, and wealth in connection with Social Security benefits. Their hope is to scare voters into believing that Thomas and other Republicans aim to reduce their benefits. If anything, his comments were about spreading the wealth of Social Security. Even Congressional Black Caucus Chair Melvin Watt gave Thomas passing credit in saying, "I do know that the current Social Security system does have African-Americans subsidizing the system because we die sooner than white Americans do and so we pay into the system, we don't get back out of it. I think — I hope that's what Bill Thomas was trying to get at in his comments earlier." Critics point to this as a radical notion out of step with the White House. That's hard to believe, when the president himself has made a similar observation on at least three occasions.

Like tax cuts, No Child Left Behind, and Medicare, Social Security will face many obstacles before real reform is achieved. However, as with those issues, there is less daylight between President Bush and congressional Republicans than their critics would have you believe.

— Eric Pfeiffer is senior writer for the National Journal's "Hotline."