January 19, 2006, 8:20 a.m.
A Dem Golden Boy.
If not Hillary — why not Virginia’s Mark Warner?

EDITOR'S NOTE: This piece appears in the January 30, 2006, issue of National Review.

In the days following the September 11 terrorist attacks, the two men who were then running for governor of Virginia suspended their campaigns. The election was less than two months away, but calling off million-dollar fundraisers and canceling political commercials seemed like the right response to a national tragedy that included a disturbing local angle: The Pentagon, after all, is on Virginia soil.

The race resumed gingerly, as neither Democrat Mark Warner nor Republican Mark Earley knew how a shell-shocked public would react to the partisan jabs that had previously occupied so much of their time. For a short spell, they stuck to positive messages. Yet Earley was behind in the polls, and before long he did what trailing candidates often do: He hit the airwaves with negative ads. Earley accused Warner of planning to raise taxes.

Aiming to protect his lead, Warner shot back with earnest dudgeon. "During this challenging time, the last thing Virginia needs is negative attacks," said one commercial, as if criticism of an opponent somehow violated the "United We Stand" ethic of post-9/11 patriotism. "With Virginia facing a budget crisis and real economic uncertainty, all Mark Earley can offer is more negative attacks," complained another ad. Warner himself was blunt. "I will not raise taxes! I will not raise taxes! I will not raise taxes!" he insisted. In the end, Warner won with 52 percent of the vote.

Breaking crystal-clear tax promises usually doesn't provide a shortcut to political fame and fortune, but Warner broke his anyway: Two years after swearing off tax hikes so unambiguously, he proposed and obtained the heftiest tax increase in Virginia's history, from a Republican-controlled legislature. Largely on the basis of this success, he is suddenly the most talked-about contender for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination — or at least the most talked-about contender whose name isn't Hillary...

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