Author Archive E-mail Author Send to a Friend <% dim printurl printurl = Request.ServerVariables("URL")%> Version

August 14, 2002 9:10 a.m. Bush Falls (Halfway) To Earth The president fights a downward trend in the polls.

n a July 2001 interview with National Review Online, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd explained the president's job-approval ratings, which at that time were in the mid-50 percent range. "We're not in an era where a president can get a 70 percent job-approval rating," Dowd said confidently. Then he added a quick afterthought: "absent a major crisis."

At the same time, the president's job dis-approval rating has been slowly rising. Last September, when Bush hit 90 percent, his job-disapproval rating was an astonishingly low six percent. It stayed in single digits until early December. It did not hit 20 percent until early April 2002, and it did not rise consistently into the 20s until early July. In the newest poll, it is 26 percent.

The trend — from an examination of 38 Gallup surveys taken since September 11 — is clear. The president's job-approval rating has been slowly falling toward a normal range, while his job-disapproval rating has been slowing rising toward a normal range. A 68 percent job-approval rating is still extraordinarily high, but a look at the surveys suggests there is no reason to believe it will not fall to the mid-50 percent range in the next two or three months. Similarly, there is no reason to believe his disapproval rating will not rise to the mid-30 percent range in the same time period — absent, as Matthew Dowd would say, a major crisis.

If the trends continue, Bush will ultimately return to his pre-September 11 standing in the polls. In four surveys taken by Gallup in August 2001, the president's job-approval rating was 55, 57, 57, and 55 percent. In the same polls, his disapproval rating was 35, 35, 34, and 36 percent.

There are probably several factors, some of them related to each other, that are driving the trend. One is the law of political gravity. Another is the gradual return of post-September 11 normalcy and a feeling that the war on terrorism has leveled out. Yet another is growing public concern about the economy. And the last is a concerted campaign by Democrats, often helped by Bush's foes in the media, to tie him to today's corporate scandals and portray him as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans.

The first needs no explanation. On the second, the new Gallup poll asked, "Who do you think is currently winning the war against terrorism — the U.S. and its allies, neither side, or the terrorists?" Thirty-seven percent said the U.S. and its allies, while 14 percent said the terrorists. The largest segment, 46 percent, said neither side. That is a significant change from last January, when 66 percent said the U.S. and its allies were winning, seven percent said the terrorists, and 25 percent said neither side.

In addition, the threat of terrorism appears to be receding in the minds of Americans. When Gallup researchers asked, "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" 23 percent of those surveyed named terrorism, while 36 percent said economic issues.

On the economy, the poll found widespread worries. When asked, "How would you rate economic conditions in this country today — excellent, good, only fair, or poor?" 71 percent said fair or poor, while just 27 percent said good (one percent said excellent, and one percent had no opinion). When asked, "Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?" 55 percent said getting worse, while 32 percent said getting better (nine percent said staying the same, while 4 percent had no opinion). Those numbers are an almost complete reversal from March, when 54 percent of respondents told Gallup the economy was getting better, while 37 percent said it was getting worse, and seven percent said it was staying the same.

When Gallup combined the responses from the latest poll to create an economic-outlook index, it found that 50 percent of those polled had a negative economic outlook. Thirty percent had a mixed outlook, while just 16 percent had a positive outlook. Those numbers are significantly different from March, when 35 percent had a negative outlook, 36 percent had a mixed outlook, and 26 percent had a positive outlook.

All that undoubtedly plays a role in the poll's finding of overall satisfaction with the direction the country is taking. When asked, "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" 47 percent said they are satisfied, while 50 percent said they are dissatisfied (three percent had no opinion). It was the first time the dissatisfaction figure has been above 50 percent since the week before the terrorist attacks. With the exception of one other week, in May 2001, it was the first time it has been above 50 percent since late 1996.

Bush supporters can argue that the poll numbers mean little in a presidential term that has more than two years to go before the 2004 election. In one sense, that's true; indeed, the president's 68 percent job-approval rating is impressively high for a time in which Democrats have been pounding him daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 2,000 points. But in a daily political sense, poll results help define the president's powers of persuasion, particularly his ability to intimidate Congress into doing what he wants. And the numbers show that Bush is heading down, which will only encourage his opponents to step up their attacks. In the absence of a major crisis, George W. Bush is gradually returning to the political place he occupied before September 11.