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Pete Du Pont, former governor of Delaware, is policy chairman of the Dallas-based National Center for Policy Analysis President Bush wasn't on the ballot yesterday, but he won a substantial victory anyway. A new president's first midterm election traditionally results in a substantial loss; the last six presidents — going back to LBJ — have lost an average of 27 House and two Senate seats in the first election after their own. But President Bush held the House and gained perhaps three Senate seats. That is an extraordinary political achievement that bodes well for Bush's reelection effort and the remainder of his term.
In high-profile races, as we go to press former veep Mondale is losing in Minnesota, Governor Jeb Bush won in Florida; Kathleen Kennedy Townsend lost in the governorship in the Democratic heaven of Maryland, and Republican Mitt Romney won in another Democratic heaven in Massachusetts. Now the Democratic party will be driven further left by its angry teachers' union, minority, feminist, and antiwar base, and that will help the Republicans too. That's the ebullient news. The sobering fact is that the Bush administration has to put together a domestic agenda. His economic team needs strengthening, and tax reductions are needed to stimulate growth. The president, to borrow a phrase, needs to get the economy moving again. ` And of course there is a war to win in Iraq. The United Nations will act this week, and regardless of whether the French use their veto or the anti-terrorist majority carries the day, an enormous regime-changing effort awaits. But one thing at a time; yesterday was an extraordinary historical triumph for an increasingly successful president. David Horowitz, is editor of Frontpage.com and author, most recently, of How to Beat the Democrats It was a big night for Republicans; much bigger than the media is admitting. The first Republican governor in Georgia in more than 100 years; the first Republican governor in Maryland in 38 years (against a Kennedy); a decisive shift in Florida to the Bush camp; only the fourth time in history a triumphant presidential party has gained House seats in the first midterm elections, and possibly the first time in history a presidential party has gained seats in the Senate (it's too early at this writing to be certain). And all this in a bad economic year. It's the war, stupid; and the leader. No one should underestimate the transformation that George Bush is working on the American electorate and on the fortunes of Republicans. This is a leader who has opened up new electoral horizons for his party. On the caution side, low voter turnout always works for Republicans, which is a factor that won't be with them in 2004. What that means is Republicans will have to wage a far-more-aggressive campaign to extend this victory. The consequence of the defeat for Democrats is likely to be an internal battle royal, a lurch to the left, and a push for the presidential candidacy of "populist," antiwar Gore. This could provide an historic opportunity for the Republican party to become the party of an American majority. Given the dangers of the looming war on terror, and the appeasement mentality of the Democratic Left, the opportunity couldn't come at a better time.
At least Jim Carville had an honest moment. As we approached midnight on Tuesday, perhaps the most famous FOB put a garbage can on his head and mugged for the CNN cameras. That freeze frame was worth a thousand words — this was a day more embarrassing for Democrats beyond what most Republicans could have ever imagined. There are so many reasons the Democrats got trounced. But some of the most-vivid campaign moments of the past week reveal volumes. Bill Clinton glowing and backslapping on the big video screens at the Wellstone "memorial" service/rally. Bill Clinton doing his best preacher improv to get out the black vote in Florida, Maryland, and New York. Bill Clinton in Harlem Monday night bemoaning the way the media covers elections ("First it's the politics, then personality, and the issues come last!"). Bill Clinton throwing up one last hail-Mary pass for New York gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall. None of this worked. The Master Communicator has lost his groove. The Clinton Era is officially dead. You know what's bothering Clinton most? That this Texas cowboy who mangles his words has managed to rally the country in a way that the Comeback Kid/Rhodes Scholar never could. "How can the Americans be fooled so easily?!" Clinton must be muttering to himself. For a fellow who is supposed to be so smart, Bill just doesn't get it. When will the Dems understand that character matters? The voters believe that President Bush is out there fighting for America first — not the U.N. Second, the Democrats rolled over on the war, and offered no real economic agenda. What defines today's Democrats? Mondale? Lautenberg? Failed FOB McAuliffe? It's a good thing that Terry made all that money on Global Crossing.
The Republicans won big yesterday because: 1) The Democrats are weak on national security. 2. They're weak on economic prosperity. 3. They're weak on leadership and statesmanship (Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt & co.). 4. They can't rid themselves of the detestable Clintonoids (Bill, Hillary, Terry McAuliffe, James Carville & co.). 5. Many Republicans actually ran on conservative principles (e.g., tax cuts, limited government, and a strong defense). 6. George W. Bush is a very popular wartime president. The Democrats just blew the best chance they had to keep control of the Senate for the next six years. The reason is that there were 34 Senate seats in play yesterday — 20 held by the GOP and 14 by the Democrats. The Republicans not only protected 20 seats, but now control the Senate. In 2004, the Republicans will only need to defend 15 seats, while the Democrats will have 19 seats in play. In 2006, the Republicans will defend 16 seats, the Democrats 17 (18 if you include Jim Jeffords). The Republicans also won some House seats and won more governorships than predicted. Ahhh ... It's morning in America once again.
The Democrats had all kinds of ostensible ammunition and couldn't fire a shot — because they have nothing positive to offer. So I predict they'll get even shriller, making all kinds of excuses and allegations trying to explain away their inability to ride historical trends even in the midst of a lethargic economy. (And don't forget this would have been an even-bigger rout had the New Jersey supreme court not thwarted the rule of law to allow Frank Lautenberg in the race.) Among their excuses will be: 1) Republican special-interest money thwarted the will of the little people (Dick Gephardt). 2) Minority voters were intimidated (Tom Daschle). And, most amazing: 3) Voter apathy (New York Times, R. W. Apple). They'll also say, of course, that Iraq played a major roll in their defeat, and they will be correct. But isn't it interesting that George Bush didn't really wag that dog in an overt way, despite charges that he did? Whatever else these results show, they tell us clearly that the Democrats' negativity is wearing thin. It didn't work nationally and it especially didn't work where it was directly tested, in the Florida gubernatorial race. To that venue, the Democrats brought all their heavy hitters (Clinton & Gore) and hit man (Terry McAuliffe) in a concerted effort to humiliate George Bush and vindicate Al Gore. They're going to have a hard time blaming this loss on the United States Supreme Court. Whereas two years ago they relied on the Florida courts to rescue them, this year the only courting they may try is with Lincoln Chafee. But if Talent and Coleman hold on to their leads or Thune goes ahead that will be a moot court.
Attention all 2004 Democratic presidential candidates: Election Night 2002 proved New Hampshire remains a rock-solid conservative state, despite the recent influx of Taxachusetts natives. You may want to bear that fact in mind before committing to a liberal platform and renting Manchester headquarters for the Granite State's first in the nation primary. Three-term Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen was her party's greatest hope for picking up a Senate seat. She had never lost a statewide race until last night, when Rep. John Sununu defeated her 51-47. Shaheen attacked Sununu for supporting personal Social Security accounts, the flat tax and "corporate America." She blasted him for being pro-life and anti-environment. She campaigned as an independent and criticized Sununu for being a conservative Republican. And Granite Staters, God bless them, asked, "What's your point, Guvna?" Two major races in New Hampshire were won on the issue of tax cuts: Republican Craig Benson won the governorship 59-38 against Democrat Mark Fernald, in what was a referendum on a statewide income tax. (Fernald wants to create one; 59 percent of Granite Staters want Fernald to move to Massachusetts.) Democrats's top-tier candidate Martha Fuller Clark went down in flames 58 to 39 in large part because she supported a statewide income tax as a state house member, and her opponent Jeb Bradley did not. The other major race in New Hampshire was Rep. Charlie Bass's, the moderate Republican who wasn't much different on the issues than his moderate Democrat opponent, Katrina Lantos Swett. But Swett's campaign was orchestrated and paid for by her father, California liberal Rep. Tom Lantos. She lost, 57 to 41. Granite Staters don't like out-of-state liberals like Lantos fiddling with the very pleasant conservative status quo in New Hampshire. Let that be last night's lesson to John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Al Gore.
While some of the
results are still being counted, here's what I think we learned from 2002
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