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Tags: Bill Flores

A GOP Retreat in Texas’ 17th District? Er, Not Quite.



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Down in Dallas . . .

The Republican Party has scrapped plans for a costly last-minute TV blitz on behalf of congressional nominee Bill Flores.

Democrats said the move signals that Republicans are giving up hope of unseating Rep. Chet Edwards. But Flores disagreed, saying that it means he’s in such good shape, the national party can devote its resources elsewhere.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said today that the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled all of the advertising time it had reserved with stations in the Dallas, Waco and Bryan media markets.

The DCCC shouldn’t laugh too loudly. From all of five days ago: “Democrats are only spending $42,000 on behalf of Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), who trails businessman Bill Flores (R) in most polling.”

And way back on October 7:

Endangered U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, took the unusual step of releasing internal polling Thursday that shows him running 4 percentage points behind Republican challenger Bill Flores, a significant improvement from another internal poll three weeks ago that had him trailing by 10 points.

The 20-year congressional veteran, a powerful chairman of a House appropriations subcommittee, described himself as “the underdog” against political newcomer Flores, who recently released a poll that had him with a 19-point lead over Edwards.

The Democrat’s internal poll shows Flores leading 46 percent to 42 percent, with 1 percent favoring Libertarian Richard Kelly, according to the survey of 400 likely voters conducted Monday and Tuesday by Bennett, Petts & Normington. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

A ten-term incumbent releases an internal putting himself at 42 percent and touts it as good news, while the top-of-the-ticket race that’s been touted as competitive remains a solid GOP lead. And we’re to believe that of all places for a big Democratic comeback, it’s occurring in an R+28 district? Really?

I’m told that NRCC polling shows a consistent, solid lead for Flores.

“Someone has to get the DCCC Dramamine, because they’re spinning way too much,” quips a GOP operative.

Tags: Bill Flores , Chet Edwards

In Texas, GOP’s Flores Leads Chet Edwards, 55-36!



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These House polls have me gasping, “Whoa!” more often than Keanu Reeves: 

A new OnMessage Inc. poll conducted for Republican Bill Flores’ campaign shows him ahead of Rep. Chet Edwards (D), 55 percent to 36 percent. The poll of 400 likely voters was taken Sept. 19-20 and had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Presume, for the sake of argument, that because it’s a GOP poll, it’s heavily favored for Flores. You can take seven points off his total, add seven points to Edwards’s total, and it’s still a 48-43 GOP lead.

Tags: Bill Flores , Chet Edwards

Bill Flores: Do You Agree With Your Congressman About Obama’s ‘Solid Judgment’?



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A lot of House Republicans are running against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Bill Flores, the Republican running against Chet Edwards in Texas’s 17th congressional district, has no problem invoking the president directly, as seen in this billboard:

A Bill Flores billboard, spotlighting Chet Edwards' praise for Obama.

No doubt that will irritate the 32 percent of district voters who backed Obama in 2008.

Tags: Bill Flores , Chet Edwards

Texas Democrat Chet Edwards Trails GOP Challenger, 53%–41%



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My assessment of Chet Edwards in my list of 99:

Chet Edwards, Texas: Edwards, one of the first politicians to encounter angry crowds at his town-hall meetings, voted against the health-care bill. Edwards is a survivor, but this is the most Republican district in the country represented by a Democrat; he won with only 53 percent in 2008. Money should not be an issue for GOP challenger Bill Flores.

Stu Rothenberg reveals some news about Edwards today:

A new Republican poll obtained by the Rothenberg Political Report shows ten-term Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards (Texas 17) trailing challenger Bill Flores (R) by a dozen points. But Edwards, who isn’t releasing his own survey, remains confident that he can turn the contest from a referendum on President Barack Obama and national atmospherics into a choice between the two candidates.

The new survey of 400 likely voters, conducted May 2-3 by OnMessage Inc, a GOP firm, shows Edwards remains popular in the Republican-leaning district, with a name I.D. of 53% favorable/38% unfavorable.

But when matched against challenger Bill Flores, who recently won a run-off to become the Republican nominee, Flores holds a 53%-41% lead over Edwards. Flores’s name identification is just 37% favorable/10% unfavorable.

Because Chet Edwards has held that seat in that heavily Republican district year in, year out in the past, it will be easily for analysts and prognosticators to conclude, “Eh, Edwards always survives, he’ll be fine.” This year, probably not.

Yet as of this morning, Cook Political Report scores the race “leans Democrat”, Rothenberg had it “Democrat favored,” CQ Politics scores it “likely Democrat,” Larry Sabato scores it “leans Democrat,” and only RealClearPolitics scores it “leans Republican.”

Tags: Bill Flores , Chet Edwards

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