Before the July 4 holiday, former representative Bobby Schilling’s comeback bid looked likely; today, it’s official:
Bobby Schilling announced today that he would seek a rematch against incumbent Congresswoman Cheri Bustos for the 17th Congressional District seat. Schilling said that his campaign would focus on fighting for middle class families and their values.
“As a father, husband, employer and laborer, I can tell you that the middle class is falling further behind,” said Schilling. “The people of Illinois deserve a member of Congress who understands their worries and values, and leads by example. To combat unemployment, stagnant wages and rising prices, the middle class is going to need a lot more than just lip-service and rhetoric. We’re going to need a leader from and for the middle class, who puts people ahead of politics and self-promotion.”
Schilling said Illinois families need a representative who understands the plight of the middle class and that incumbent Congresswoman Bustos has been absent on that front.
“The middle class is getting crushed by rising prices, stagnant wages and a government that has forgotten about them,” said Schilling. “Not only are our groceries and gas prices going up, but our health care premiums in Illinois are estimated to rise at least 61% because of Obamacare. Incumbent Congresswoman Bustos has proven during her time in Washington that she doesn’t understand or feel the pain of middle class families. We need a true representative fighting for us in Washington and incumbent Congresswoman Cheri Bustos has refused to act.”
Schilling said that Congresswoman Bustos has failed even basic duties like supporting a federal budget plan to get our country back on the right path.
“We’ve got such a lack of leadership right now, that our incumbent Congresswoman refused to even support a budget,” said Schilling. “Supporting a budget or presenting your own is your basic duty while being a member of Congress. If you can’t support a budget to get our country back on the right track, then you didn’t go to Washington for anything but self-promotion.”
Schilling will embark on a campaign roll out of his announcement and continue on a 14 county “Middle Class Families” listening tour.
Way back in spring 2010, I declared that Republican Bobby Schilling of Illinois could beat incumbent Democratic representative Phil “I don’t care about the Constitution” Hare. Schilling did beat him, rather handily, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Then Illinois’s state legislators set out to redraw the district lines, and Schilling saw his district shift dramatically: It added parts of Rockford and Peoria and lost Quincy, Decatur, and Springfield. Under the tougher lines, and with home-state President Obama at the top of the ticket, Schilling lost, 53 percent to 47 percent, to Democrat Cheri Bustos.
The Rock Island Republican Party hosted a barbeque in Peterson Park. In addition to burgers and brats, there was music and games.
The barbeque was also a chance for people to meet local elected officials. One of the people at the barbeque was former Congressman Bobby Schilling who says he’s leaning toward running for Congress in Illinois’s 17th Congressional District against Democrat Cheri Bustos.
“There are a lot of promises that were made that aren’t being kept. I’ve had a lot of, of course Republicans and I’ve had a lot of Democrats come to me and say, hey you’ve got to take her out in the off year,” said Bobby Schilling.
Schilling says he plans to make an announcement Monday at 4:30.
His comeback bid will be helped if Cheri Bustos says she doesn’t care about the Constitution.
The GOP keeps Mark Kirk’s seat. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Robert Dold; I underestimated his chances all cycle long.
And yet, this Illinois Campaign Spot reader warns the new Republicans to not get too comfortable:
Greetings from still occupied Illinois. Kirk and the House candidates won, Brady BOTCHES the gov race. Of all the Dems to survive last night………Pat Quinn ?
As you said a feel bad landslide. All those new House Republicans from Illinois better not get too comfy because they will get redistricted to the far side of the moon now. House Speaker Mike Madigan will give Quinn the keys to the red train at Santa’s Village and continue to be the real Governor of Illinois (as he has been since Jim Edgar, the last real Governor Illinois had). So I get a state income tax increase and a whopper of a property tax increase. Yay for me.
Take a look at the vote %s from the Gov and Senate races, might explain why the House results were so better than the Senate. House races are in their little districts, Senate…………everybody in the state gets a shot at you. The % of the vote out of Cook County…………..most of that is African American from Chicago, plus heavy city union vote. Quinn came out of Chicago alone up 4 to 1, lot of ground to make up around the state. Statewide, not just in Illinois, monolithic African American vote is HARD to beat, even in a wave. GOP needs a message or candidate to strip some of that off. Any state with large African American vote is going to be a tough go in 2012 for whoever the GOP candidate vs Dear Leader.
I would throw in one point about redistricting: People move, demographics change, and after a while, even safe seats don’t seem so safe anymore. Phil Hare’s awkwardly drawn district lines were meant to create a safe Democratic seat, and Congressman-elect Bobby Schilling laid that notion to rest.
None of the new House polls released by The Hill are all that surprising; for Republicans, a few results are reassuring, a few are disappointing.
Ranking the news from good to bad . . .
IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 45, Phil Hare (D) 38
MS-1: Alan Nunnelee (R) 44, Travis Childers (D) 39
NH-1: Frank Guinta (R) 47, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 42
AZ-5: David Schweikart (R) 45, Harry Mitchell (D) 42
WI-8: Reid Ribble (R) 45, Steve Kagen (D) 44
IL-14: Randy Hultgren (R) 43, Bill Foster (D) 42
NY-19: Nan Hayworth (R) 43, John Hall (D) 43
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 41, Chris Carney (D) 41
PA-8: Patrick Murphy (D) 46, Michael Fitzpatrick (R) 43
NY-24: Michael Arcuri (D) 47, Richard Hanna (R) 37
Having said that, none of these incumbents have particularly healthy numbers, other than maybe Arcuri. (Once again, I find myself wondering if these New York state House races would look different if any one of the big three statewide races were even remotely competitive.)
Also, this morning Survey USA is out with a poll of Oregon’s 1st district, putting incumbent Democrat David Wu up 9 over Rob Cornilles. Wu will probably win by a much narrower margin than usual, but in a D+8 district where Wu’s share of the vote is usually in the high 50s or 60s, he’s got some cushion.
Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:
FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
(* = denotes incumbent)
All of these results sound pretty plausible, but if you want to take some salt with an NRCC-commissioned poll, that’s fine. I would note that any Democratic incumbent who’s polling in the high 30s or low 40s in a cycle like this is probably doomed or close to doomed.
Remember when nobody had heard of Bobby Schilling?
EAST MOLINE, IL–In a sign of great momentum with only 15 days until Election Day, Bobby Schilling announced he outraised incumbent Congressman Phil Hare $375,262.38 to $324,909.96 in the third quarter . . .
According to third quarter FEC reports, Phil Hare reported raising $130,708.75 from individuals while the majority of his support came from special interest PACs.
Schilling raised $276,952.38 from individuals, totaling 74% of his total third quarter contributions. Schilling has received donations from more than 2,500 individuals.
Schilling now leads in cash on hand $420,962.69 to Phil Hare’s $327,227.04.
Communications Director Bobby Frederick highlighted the fact that Hare spent more than five times the amount Schilling did in the third quarter.
Adam Kinzinger is 32. He was elected at age 20 to the McLean County Board and served for five years. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, he signed up for the Air Force. He was deployed twice to Iraq and flew missions into Afghanistan. (Just as an aside, he once disarmed a man who had attacked a woman with a knife in Madison, Wis.)
The young man has accomplished a great deal.
And yet Halvorson’s ads derisively dismiss him as a “politician.” Halvorson, take note, spent 12 years in the Illinois Senate and the last two years in the U.S. House. Red ink, meet red ink.
Kinzinger is one of the most impressive new candidates we have seen this year. He puts a premium on energy independence, on creating a climate that encourages business to create jobs, on finding new markets for the employers who put people to work in the 11th District. He makes a sure-footed defense of his conservative views. Kinzinger is endorsed.
. . . Republican Robert Dold and Democrat Dan Seals continue that tradition of strong debate. Dold is a Kenilworth businessman. He’s making his first run for office, but has been active in Republican Partypolitics for years and was an investigative counsel for the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee. Seals is a Wilmette business consultant. He’s making his third run for this office. Call this the battle of the MBAs, Seals (University of Chicago) vs. Dold (Northwestern.)
It’s tempting to endorse Seals. We liked him each time we endorsed Mark Kirk over him. Our support this time goes to Dold. Though Democrats want to portray him as an arch-conservative, we’re convinced he will be in the moderate, pro-choice, independent mold of Kirk. And Dold will take a much firmer line on out-of-control federal spending than Seals. Dold is endorsed.
. . . Democratic Rep. Phil Hare, of Rock Island, is one of the most ardent trade protectionists in the House, much like his mentor, former Rep. Lane Evans. Common wisdom was that stance fit his district. (That’s by design. Democrats drew the 17th District boundaries that look like a crab’s claw, weaving around and about Illinois to snare enough pockets of Democrats to keep Republicans out of power.) But Republican Bobby Schilling, of Colona, is waging a heck of a campaign and has a real chance of winning. Schilling has been a union official, worked in financial services and now owns a pizzeria in Moline.
Schilling knows that farmers and manufacturers in western Illinois benefit from finding more markets, and that business and labor have to work together to establish those markets. Hare has tried to paint Schilling as an extremist. Our impression from talking to Schilling is that he’s a smart, independent conservative. Hare votes the Democratic Party line more than any other member of the Illinois delegation. Schilling is endorsed over Hare and Green Party candidate Roger Davis, of Quincy.
If I liked this ad for Bobby Schilling any more, I’d probably have one of those inappropriate and creepy Ace of Spades reactions.
Meanwhile, his opponent, Democrat incumbent Phil Hare, declares, “Every minute that I have here is going to be spent debunking the myth that this country’s in debt and we just can’t spend.”
Remember, Bobby Schilling. When you’re a big-shot Illinois congressman, remember who was writing stuff like this in May:
In yesterday’s rankings, the one that has generated the most skepticism is putting Rep. Phil Hare of Illinois in the “Blue/As Difficult as Beating the St. Louis Rams” category. As one media guy who watches Congress closely put it:
You have Phil Hare in the easiest to beat bunch. He seems more like Leans Democrat to me — equivalent to your Orange/Eagles group. This is a district that was carried not just by Obama, but by Kerry and Gore. In 2008, Republicans couldn’t even be bothered to contest Hare, and he got 57 percent the last time they did. He’s done a couple stupid things lately — ‘I don’t care about the constitution’ and not releasing an internal poll — but this one seems to be a much harder take-away than some others.
All true, but I figure the “I don’t care about the Constitution” makes for one wicked attack ad, and that internal poll must have shown something pretty ominous, or else he would have released it. (Think about it, even a 55-45 split in his favor would be acceptable to release.)
Now everybody has the race a toss-up, and the DCCC is putting funding into this district, and now this:
Today the Bobby Schilling for Congress campaign released two key indicators proving their campaign is gaining momentum against liberal incumbent Phil Hare.
Since June 30, Bobby Schilling’s has raised $375,262 and has over $420,962 cash on hand to fight back against Phil Hare’s negative attacks and misleading TV advertisements.This was the best fundraising quarter that the Schilling campaign has had to date.
3rd Quarter Total Raised: $375,262
Cash On Hand: $420,962
Total Raised To Date: $675,899
A recent poll by Public Opinion Strategies of 400 likely voters, conducted on September 26 and 27, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent shows Schilling and Hare tied at 37-38 percent. Schilling leads Hare by 18 points among voters who have heard of both candidates, and by 29 points among voters who have an opinion of both candidates. Pollster Glen Bolger said of this poll “Incumbent Phil Hare has real problems with the electorate in this district. Voters are upset at the direction of the country. Hare’s image is underwhelming. Incumbents at 38% on the ballot test don’t win unless they are successful at burning down their opponent.”
Oh, sure, there’s still an election to be won. But right now I think the St. Louis Rams would be more offended by the comparison to Phil Hare.
Observations from the latest NRCC Young Guns event:
Jon Runyan, GOP candidate in New Jersey’s 3rd district and a former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman, stands out in a crowd. I think he could hold my head in the palm of one hand. He notices that his rival, Democrat John Adler, is trying to hold up his vote against Obamacare as proof that he’s a moderate or independent, but Runyan says that argument isn’t plausible when you vote with Nancy Pelosi 90 percent of the time, and points to Adler’s 16 years of reliably liberal voting in the state senate as further evidence. “Look at the mess in Trenton he helped leave for our governor,” he said. Speaking of the governor, Chris Christie has campaigned for Runyan and the candidate hopes to be joined by him again; at first glance, there may not be a stage in the state big enough for Runyan and Christie.
I liked this observation from Mike Kelly, running against Kathy Dahlkemper in Pennsylvania’s 3rd district: “The only difference between the voters in this district and me is that my name is on the ballot.”
Mo Brooks aims to be the first Republican elected in his Alabama district since 1868. The district is currently represented by Parker Griffith, a Democrat until he switched parties earlier this cycle; Brooks won the three-way GOP primary over Griffith and another Republican easily. He says Democrats in the district were depressed when one of their own left them, then were fired up about the chance to run against him, and now that Brooks is the nominee and leading healthily in this conservative district, “they’re depressed again.”
Nan Hayworth, who just won her primary in New York’s 19th district, apologizes when she cites the Public Policy Polling survey of her district commissioned by Daily Kos. I figure no apology is needed when citing a poll showing her narrowly leading the Democrat incumbent, John Hall. She describes the mood in her district as “anger, tinged with desperation . . . But now there’s some excitement that there is a chance to change it.”
Sandy Adams has a lot of factors going in her favor in her race against Suzanne Kosmas in Florida’s 24th district, but probably none more powerful than the district’s sense of betrayal. Kosmas ran as a fiscal moderate and was helped by an Obama wave; in 2008, the Democratic presidential candidate was pledging to save manned spaceflight. Kosmas defied her district by voting for health-care reform, and many figured she had traded her vote to the Obama administration for some sort of deal to save Space Coast jobs. Instead, President Obama’s space-policy changes are effectively ending manned spaceflight*, disastrous news for workers in her district.
I ran into Bobby Schilling, the once-longshot Illinois Republican whom I mentioned as a potential upset early in this cycle. He thanked me for that early expression of confidence in his chances, and I told him no thanks were necessary; 50 percent of that assessment stemmed from the opportunistic, pugnacious style of his campaign and the other 50 percent reflected the fact that his rival, incumbent Democrat Phil Hare, is such a [coarse term that would make Andrew Dice Clay blush]. Schilling laughed and noted that Hare’s personality is not wearing well in the district. He said that the two key counties in the state’s 17th district are Rock Island and Macon; Schilling feels he has a bit of an advantage compared to other recent GOP House candidates in this district because of his roots in Rock Island. He added his campaign has made 120,000 live calls to voters in the district so far.
The NRCC now has 75 candidates at the “Young Gun” level, which is a threshold that varies by district. In short, this is the NRCC saying, “These folks have promise and are running good campaigns.”
Public Opinion Strategies began the month by surveying Illinois’s 17th district again. They found incumbent Democrat Phil Hare with some seriously weak numbers:
Congressman Hare’s upside down re-elect score is a serious problem for him.
Just 25% of voters say Hare deserves to be re-elected, while 46% say it is time to give a new person a chance to do a better job. While these numbers are grim, the news only gets worse for Hare among key subgroups such as Independents (20% re-elect/52% new person), soft Dems (30% re-elect/40% new person) and voters most interested in the election (30% re-elect/53% new person among voters who rate their interest as a 10).
Hare fails to break 35% on the Congressional ballot.
Hare receives just 33% of the vote on the ballot test and leads Republican Bobby Schilling by just two points (33% Hare/31% Schilling). Green party candidate Roger Davis receives 7% of the vote, and 30% of voters are currently undecided. It is very difficult for any incumbent to win an election where he starts out with just 33% of the vote, and there are no signs in the data that Phil Hare will be any different.
Looking at the undecided voters Hare would need to win over to make a comeback, the Congressman’s re-elect score is 11% re-elect/41% new person. The party breakdown of the undecided voters also offers little hope for Hare, as 65% are either GOPers (21%) or Independents (44%), so it is not simply a matter of hoping Democrats come home to Hare.The news is no better for Hare among the 38% of voters who have heard of both candidates, as Schilling leads by nineteen points (49% Schilling/30% Hare/5% Davis) with these most informed voters.
You won’t see it anywhere before here, folks: Public Opinion Strategies has completed another poll in Illinois’s 17th congressional district, matching up incumbent Democrat Phil Hare against Republican Bobby Schilling. This race has been one that I’ve been shouting has enormous upset potential, to a bit of earl mockery.
Schilling Image
42% Name ID
17% Favorable
4% Unfavorable
Hare Image
78% Name ID
33% Favorable
21% Unfavorable
Hare Re-Elect
25% Total Re-Elect
46% Total New Person
26% Depends
Congressional Ballot
31% Total Schilling
33% Total Hare
7% Total Davis
30% Undecided
“Davis” is Roger K. Davis, the Green-party candidate. Some Schilling folks suspect his relatively high number in the poll indicates there are a significant number of liberals and left-of-center voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for Hare.
When only 25 percent say they definitely want to reelect you . . . well, this Hare might be cooked.
People thought I was crazy for saying that Republican Bobby Schilling would beat Rep. Phil Hare, an Illinois Democrat, in November. I was so wildly confident of this scenario that there were calls for drug testing among campaign-correspondent bloggers.
Well, the Cook Political Report just offered one of the early signs of trouble for a guy who’s supposed to be among the safest, moving the race from “safe Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”
Few of my assessments in this cycle have met with more derision than my argument that Phil Hare, an Illinois Democrat, is supremely vulnerable.
His GOP opponent, Bobby Schilling, hired Magellan Strategies to conduct a poll of the district. Magellan conducted an automated survey of 715 likely voters in the 17th congressional district of Illinois: “The interviews were conducted on July 12th of 2010. This [poll has] a margin of error of +/‐ 3.6% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey results are weighted to reflect past turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.”
If you’re a skeptic of campaign-commissioned polls, fine. But note that the unemployment rate in Illinois is 10.4 percent (it was 10.8 percent last month), the state is sick of the machine politics that put Rod Blagojevich in place, and the national mood is frustrated and angry. Just how unlikely is it that Phil Hare would be in trouble?
“If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican, and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?” Among all voters, 44% support the generic Republican candidate for Congress and 35% support the generic Democrat candidate.
Phil Hare’s image rating is “upside down,” with 27% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, and 41% having an unfavorable opinion of him.
Among all voters, 27% approve of the job Phil Hare is doing and 43% disapprove.
Among all voters, only 24% responded they would reelect Phil Hare, 50% think it is time to give someone else a chance to do a better job and 26% are undecided on the question.
“If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bobby Schilling, Republican, or Phil Hare, Democrat?” Among all voters, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare, 45% to 32%, and 23% are undecided. The bulk of Bobby Schilling’s support is being driven by male voters. Among men, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare by 28 points, 54% to 26%. Among women, it is a much closer race, with Bobby Schilling leading by 1 point, 37% to 36%, and 27% are undecided.
Bobby Schilling’s website can be found here. Keep an eye on this race. Either I’m way ahead of the pack in finding one of 2010′s most unlikely upsets, or this poll is completely wrong.
Few predictions have generated more “Jim, you must be gargling with Maker’s Mark again” responses than my assessment that defeating Illinois Democrat Phil Hare is roughly as difficult as beating the St. Louis Rams. (Actually, the discussion here is whether I’m “on amphetamines” or whether I’m “retarded.”)
If someone wants to argue that Hare doesn’t belong among the most absolutely vulnerable Democrats, fine, but anyone who thinks he’s a safe Democrat is, I suspect, extraordinarily mistaken.
For starters, let’s take a look at the jobless rate in some of the cities in Hare’s district.
Sterling: 12.5 percent in March 2010, 13.7 percent in February; it was only 7 percent in November 2008, the last time Hare went before the voters (and with no Republican opponent).
Rock Island: 10.2 percent March 2010, 10.8 percent the previous month; 5.5 percent in November 2008.
Quincy: 8.9 percent in March 2010, 9.7 percent in February; 5 percent in November 2008.
Springfield: 9.3 percent March 2010, 10.1 the previous month; 5.9 percent in November 2008.
Decatur: 13.8 percent March 2010, 14.6 percent the previous month; 7 percent in November 2008.
While March saw a bit of improvement, in most cities in Hare’s district, unemployment is close to double what it was the last time he faced the voters. This is not a circumstance where an incumbent can use the old Ed Koch slogan, “How am I doing?” Yes, this is a district gerrymandered to include a lot of Democrats. But even partisan Democrats who are out of work for long stretches can get dissatisfied with their incumbents and think about staying home or voting for the other guy.
Then there’s the matter of those polls conducted by Hare’s campaign but never released. What could they have shown? How good could they possibly have been for Hare if he’s decided to keep them under wraps, even after needling from GOP challenger Bobby Schilling? 55–45? If it were, say, 57–43, wouldn’t Hare have released them to show he’s still in fine shape?
Of course, Hare can always rely on his raw charisma, charm, and dashing good looks to carry him to victory:
Then there’s the listing of Rep. Shelley Berkley, Democrat of Nevada, where one commenter objects, “This list actually had Shelley Berkley listed as vulnerable in the inner city Las Vegas district. Does this guy realize that the current NV-01 isnt even close to being like the district that she won in 1998 and John Ensign represented for four years in the 1990′s?”
Yes, Berkley’s district is most of Las Vegas – where the unemployment rate is 13.8 percent, was 13.9 percent last month, and was only 7.9 percent in November 2008. (Las Vegas unemployment has been 13 percent or higher for 8 of the last 9 months.) And then there are the epic troubles of Las Vegas homeowners: “highest foreclosure rate in the nation, 80 percent of homeowners ‘underwater’ on their mortgage, half of homes with 25 percent or more negative equity, 16 percent of homeowners delinquent on their mortgage.”
The Republican challenger to Shelley Berkley will have the simplest and most compelling of messages: “It’s time for a change.” Berkley will have to offer some argument that no one could possibly do her job better than she has so far, and that better times are just around the corner.
And this isn’t even getting into the top-of-the-ticket effects, from Harry Reid and Rory Reid in Nevada and Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn in Illinois.
In yesterday’s rankings, the one that has generated the most skepticism is putting Rep. Phil Hare of Illinois in the “Blue/As Difficult as Beating the St. Louis Rams” category. As one media guy who watches Congress closely put it:
You have Phil Hare in the easiest to beat bunch. He seems more like Leans Democrat to me — equivalent to your Orange/Eagles group. This is a district that was carried not just by Obama, but by Kerry and Gore. In 2008, Republicans couldn’t even be bothered to contest Hare, and he got 57 percent the last time they did. He’s done a couple stupid things lately — ‘I don’t care about the constitution’ and not releasing an internal poll — but this one seems to be a much harder take-away than some others.
All true, but I figure the “I don’t care about the Constitution” makes for one wicked attack ad, and that internal poll must have shown something pretty ominous, or else he would have released it. (Think about it, even a 55-45 split in his favor would be acceptable to release.)
Here’s Hare to the Wall Street Journal at the end of last month, right before President Obama visited the district:
In Illinois, Rep. Phil Hare, the Democrat who represents Quincy, said he needed the president to make the case that the economy was improving, and that his programs, especially the economic stimulus, have worked. “I’ve had a death threat. I had a rock thrown through the window of a leased vehicle. It’s tough out there,” Mr. Hare said.
I’m also wondering about coattails in Illinois; it looks like the Democrats have two awful top-of-the-ticket names in Illinois. Neither Alexi Giannoulias nor Pat Quinn are leading the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, and neither Democrat has led a poll since March. The last five percentage totals for Quinn, the incumbent: 36, 38, 38, 33, 37. Those are Corzine-esque numbers.
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