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Tags: Charles Djou

Thinking Ahead to Hawaii’s Primaries . . .



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A Campaign Spot reader in Hawaii who is tuned in to local political circles checks in on Sen. Daniel Akaka’s retirement:

Lots going on in the state right now that is going to make voters yearn for the days of Lingle’s governorship. No real obvious challenger to her on GOP side — Charles Djou will probably opt to not challenge her, but instead wait to take on Governor Abercrombie, or maybe take a shot at Inouye’s seat when he retires. It will likely be a bloodbath in the primary on the Democrat side — Inouye doesn’t have the political machine he once did to clear the decks for an anointed Democrat to run for the seat.  Several factions of the Democrat establishment are really “feeling their oats” with their successes over the last two or three election cycles on both the state and federal level.  There will also be a generational aspect to the primary on the Democrat side.

I would note that Hawaii’s primaries are some of the last in the cycle; this year it was the last Saturday in September. After complaints about deadlines for overseas absentee ballots, the state’s primary will now be held the second Saturday in August.

Tags: Charles Djou , Daniel Akaka , Linda Lingle

Finally, They Tossed Out That Classy, Polite, Dignified Incumbent!



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I collapsed into bed at roughly 3 a.m. Wednesday morning, and awoke, groggily, some hours later to find that Rep. Charles Djou, Republican of Hawaii elected in a special three-way election earlier this year, had been defeated.

I recognize that this is a heavily Democratic district. But come on, Hawaii. Charles Djou has all of the duplicity, cynicism, venality, and nastiness of a Care Bear. Of all the guys in Congress, you toss out this guy? I know, I know. A Democratic machine runs that state, and Djou only won because it was internally divided during the special . . .

Anyway, one of my regulars shares this observation:

Of all the candidates I contributed to, only one, Charles Djou, sent an email after the election apologising for failing to win and taking responsibility for the loss:

 

Djou for Hawaii

November 3, 2010 

Aloha [Reader's name], 

Words cannot express my sincere gratitude to all of you.  We have been together for over a year now – fighting to restore fiscal responsibility and accountability to government, and ultimately fighting for a two-party democracy in the State of Hawaii.  Unfortunately, we fell short yesterday and the responsibility for that is entirely mine. 

You have been the best supporters and friends a man could ever ask for.  And, I am continually humbled by your faith and confidence in me.  It has been a true honor to serve you as your Congressman, and I look forward to serving you in some other capacity in the future. If there is anything I can ever help you with, please feel free to contact me. 

God bless you, God bless the State of Hawaii and may God bless the United States of America. 

Charles  

Paid for by Djou for Hawaii

Jim Moran returns to Congress, Barney Frank returns to Congress, but they toss out Charles Djou.

Tags: Charles Djou

The Lead Is Buried, Which Seems Appropriate Close to Halloween.



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Odd. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser seems to think the news out of their poll is that both gubernatorial candidates are rated favorably by a majority of voters. Down in the fifth paragraph, they mention Democrat Neil Abercrombie is ahead, 51 percent to 43 percent, over Duke Aiona.

Also:

In a smaller sample of 399 very likely voters in the 1st Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Charles Djou was viewed as favorable by 55 percent, compared with 50 percent for Colleen Hanabusa, the Democratic state Senate president. The margin of error for that sample was 4.9 percentage points.

As in the governor’s race, the poll showed independents favoring the Republican.

Djou was seen as favorable by 68 percent of those who said they usually vote independent, compared with 29 percent for Hanabusa.

Yet I can’t find any head-to-head numbers in the article . . .

UPDATE: Here we go, in a completely separate article . . .

Four hundred six voters in the 1st Congressional District were asked if the election were held today, who would you vote for. Forty-eight percent said Djou, while 46 percent chose Hanabusa. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Tags: Charles Djou , Duke Aiona

Mostly Good News for GOP in 10 New House Race Polls



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The Hill unveils poll results in ten House districts, mostly open seat races:

Tennessee 8: D: Roy Herron, 37 percent; R: Stephen Fincher, 47 percent

Washington 3: D: Denny Heck, 40 percent; R: Jaime Herrera, 42 percent

Arkansas 1: D: Chad Causey, 34 percent; R: Rick Crawford, 46 percent

Wisconsin 7: D: Julie Lassa, 35 percent; R: Sean Duffy, 44 percent

Illinois 10: D: Dan Seals, 49 percent; R: Robert Dold, 37 percent

Hawaii 1: D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41 percent, R: Charles Djou, 45 percent

Pennsylvania 7: D: Bryan Lentz, 39 percent, R: Patrick Meehan, 40 percent

New Hampshire 2: D: Ann Kuster, 42 percent R: Charlie Bass, 45 percent

Michigan 1: D: Gary McDowell, 39 percent R: Dan Benishek, 42 percent

West Virginia 1: D: Mike Oliverio, 42 percent; R: David McKinley, 39 percent

These are all largely good results for the GOP, although I’m sure they wish they had larger leads in several of these.

Illinois 10 is Mark Kirk’s old seat; that one was always Democrat-heavy and going to be tough to keep in an open seat race. Similar deal for West Virginia’s 1st District. Djou’s lead is perhaps the most substantial surprise.

My guess is that Ace’s Ewok will write another love letter to Sean Duffy before the day is through.

Tags: Charles Djou , Charlie Bass , Dan Benishek , Jaime Herrera , Patrick Meehan , Rick Crawford , Sean Duffy , Stephen Fincher

Djou Not Underestimate the Newest House Republican



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This fits in with a recent pattern that has mostly featured GOP challengers to incumbent House Democrats.

Just two-and-a-half months after winning his special election in HI-01, a new poll from Rep. Charles Djou’s (R) camp shows he starts the general election in a rather strong position. In the survey, Djou led state Senate Pres. Colleen Hanabusa (D) 50-42%.

The poll, which surveyed 400 LVs and was conducted by the Tarrance Group from 7/26-27, had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. 

Let’s make this easier: Does any Republican running for the House this year not have internal polls that look great? Anybody at all? No? Okay, glad that’s settled.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa

House Democrats, Whistling Past the Graveyard



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I chuckled when I read this by Moe Lane, because I’ve had similar thoughts:

At the end of July 2006, I remember being . . . fairly optimistic about the Congressional elections. Oh, I knew that there were going to be problems. It was year Six of a Presidential administration, and the Other Side was kind of fired up. And, sure, the economy was slowing down a bit — we were all the way down to 5% growth that quarter! — but at least unemployment was ticking along at less than 5%. It would have been better if it had been at 4%, but we were still dealing with the remains of the 9/11 disruption. And, yes, the problems down in the Gulf were going to have an impact, and there were scandals in Congress. You had to expect losses in an off year. Still, the idea that we were going to lose both Houses? Maybe we’d come close to losing one — but the national election committees were flush with cash, they were on top of the situation, and it was their jobs on the line. Surely we wouldn’t lose either branch of Congress; no way we could lose both.

Does all of this sound familiar?

I’m looking at the latest, “Hey, things won’t be so bad” argument offered by senior Democrats over at Greg Sargent’s blog. Breaking down some of the arguments:

Republicans will need to win 39 seats to take back the House. Democrats will win at least four Republican seats (the best opportunities include: LA-02, HI-01, IL-10, DE-AL, FL-25).

I would have put Joseph Cao, that Republican representing that New Orleans district, on the extremely endangered list, but “Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy.” That poll doesn’t guarantee Cao survives, but it suggests the race is not the slam dunk the DCCC thinks it is. Obviously, Hawaii’s Charles Djou won’t have an easy campaign, but observers aren’t putting his seat in even the top ten seats most likely to switch. In Illinois’s 10th district, Republican Bob Dold and Democrat Dan Seals are even in fundraising and a poll back in March put Seals up by only 3. It’s a similar story in the open-seat race in Florida, which is an R+5 district, by the way.

Holding Delaware’s lone House seat will indeed be tough for the GOP, but none of these races are the gimmees for the Democrats that this memo pretends.

This cycle, there are only 20 Democratic open seats, including several that are in safe districts. If Republicans have a great election night, they would still only win 50 percent of the Democratic open seats.

Er, no. Right now there are 10 open-seat races on friendly territory for the GOP: NH-2, NY-29, TN-6, TN-8, IN-8, PA-7, AR-1, AR-2, KS-3, LA-3. I’d say if this is any kind of a wave, Republicans can win in MA-10, WA-3, MI-1 and WI-7, and if there’s a really big GOP wave they can win RI-1.

As a result, the real number of seats Republicans will have to pick up to win a majority is at least 43. To win 43 seats, the NRCC would need to put 70 to 80 seats in play. The NRCC have simply not put that many Republicans seats in play and do not have the resources or caliber of candidates to do so.

Really? Where does it say you only win roughly half the seats in play? If this is indeed a nationalized wave election, the competitive races won’t be breaking down 50-50. (Besides that, I found 99 House races that I would classify as potentially competitive. Even if you think my bar is too low, you can take out one quarter of those races and still be in the DCCC’s danger zone.)

Put another way, if 13 House Democrats — many members of the classes of 2006 and 2008, with no major scandal or personality defect — trail their challengers at this moment, then where will most Democratic incumbents in swing districts be after another few months of high unemployment? Michael Barone, in a piece that generously mentions me, wonders how many House Democrats know they currently trail and are keeping the evidence hidden:

Today, a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the last seven weeks.

They’re from all over the country: one each from Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota; two from Virginia; three from Pennsylvania. Most if not all of these incumbents are personally attractive, hardworking and ethically unsullied.

Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling. Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 percent to 35 percent.

In industrial Ohio 13, which Barack Obama carried 57 to 42, a poll shows incumbent Betty Sutton trailing free-spending Republican Tom Ganley 44 percent to 31 percent.

As Geraghty notes, we haven’t seen polls released by many other Democrats on Republican target lists. Most are conducting polls; many have reason to release favorable results if they’re available. This looks like a case where the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

I find myself in agreement with Nate Silver.

Tags: Bob Dold , Charles Djou , Joseph Cao

Who’s the Most Vulnerable House Incumbent?



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Democrats currently hold 35 of the 40 seats deemed most likely to flip on this list assembled by the good folks at National Journal.

Charles Djou, the newest House Republican, is ranked 13th, which is farther from the top than I expected. Put another way, he’s one spot “safer” than Betsy Markey of Colorado, who’s getting a ton of outside help from liberal groups.

Also lower than I expected: Paul Kanjorski’s got money, but that’s about it, and he’s ranked 14; Carol Shea Porter, Democrat of New Hampshire, at 34. Higher than I expected: Ohio Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy jumped from 17 to 7; Democrat Harry Teague of New Mexico is now at 11.

The most vulnerable incumbent on their list is Anh Joseph Cao, Louisiana Republican. Interestingly, his campaign released a poll showing Cao up 51 percent to 26 percent on his nearest challenger in this heavily Democratic New Orleans district.

Of course, this is the National Journal ranking; you’ll find a different order of vulnerability from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Clearly, we need some sort of national playoff system to determine the true champion.

Tags: Betsy Markey , Carol Shea Porter , Charles Djou , Harry Teague , Mary Jo Kilroy , Paul Kanjorski

Case Closed: Ed Takes a Pass on Another Run in Hawaii



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The “civil war” among Hawaii Democrats ends later than the party would have liked, but earlier than many expected:

By slipping out of a fight between state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former U.S. Rep. Ed Case, Hawaii’s Democrats are hoping for a November knockout against Republican U.S. Rep. Charles Djou.

Case stunned supporters and opponents alike yesterday by pulling out of the race for the 1st Congressional District. . . .

In Washington, Djou said that Case’s departure would not change his work in Congress, but he said the political picture is “a little clearer.”

“It helps with the strategic thinking in the campaign,” Djou said, noting that now he knows who he will be running against in the November general election.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case

Doubts About Whether the Hawaiian Democrats’ Civil War Will End



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Democrats reassure themselves, “Sure, Charles Djou took 40 percent in a three-way race in a special election for Hawaii’s 1st congressional district, but we’ve got that seat in our back pocket come November.”

Charlie Cook isn’t so sure:

By the time Democrats decided to abandon ship and “save resources for November” rather than wade into a messy intra-party special election fight, more than half of ballots had been cast by mail and the election had already been lost. But their smart sacrifice allowed Republican Charles Djou to cruise into HI-01 with nearly 40 percent of the free-for-all vote, with state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa taking 31 percent and Democratic former Rep. Ed Case taking 28 percent. Contrary to what some on the Democratic side are saying, Democrats’ combined 60 percent share of the vote doesn’t make Djou a dead man walking in November. While he joins Louisiana GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in the Toss Up column, Djou begins his time in the House with a much stronger chance of winning a full term . . .

Hawaii will hold the latest primary in the nation on September 18th. And just because only one Democrat will emerge to face Djou on that date doesn’t mean Hawaii Democrats’ civil war will end. In fact, the finger-pointing taking place in local Democratic circles could produce an even larger, more fractured field of candidates in the primary, leaving Democrats with little time to repair bruised egos and allowing Djou to stay far above the fray as the fall campaign season begins. Only one Republican holds a more Democratic seat than Djou, and Djou will be a top target, but Democrats have their work cut out for them. President Bush’s 47 percent share here in 2004 and GOP Gov. Linda Lingle’s big majorities in 2002 and 2006 show that HI-01 is open to voting for the right kind of Republican, especially when Democrats are a mess.

At this point, all that Republicans can ask for is a fair shot.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case

I Said He Could Djou This, and He Did It!



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In a unique set of circumstances — two major Democrats on the ballot, and only one Republican — the GOP’s Charles Djou wins the special House election in Hawaii’s 1st congressional district. It is not a surprise, but I am sure, to many Republicans, it is a relief and a welcome bit of good news.

(R) Charles Djou: 67,610 votes, 39.4 percent

(D) Colleen Hanabusa, 52,802 votes, 30.8 percent

(D) Ed Case 47,391 votes, 27.6 percent

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) chairman Pete Sessions (R., Tex.) issued the following statement:

I congratulate Charles Djou for his victory and a successful campaign based on the widely-shared values of cutting spending, shrinking government and creating real, permanent American jobs. I have no doubt that Hawaii families will be well-represented in Congress as he joins our fight to return common sense economic policies and fiscal sanity to Washington.

Eighteen months ago, President Obama carried this district with seventy percent of the vote, which makes Charles Djou’s victory an impressive one. Tonight, the voters of Hawaii reaffirmed that middle class families are looking for fresh, new leaders who will take this country in a new direction and serve as a check and balance to Washington Democrats’ reckless and unpopular policies of deficit spending, higher taxes and fewer jobs. Charles Djou’s victory not only changes the makeup of the House of Representatives, but it helps Republicans move one step closer toward winning back the majority in November. Both Charles and his wife Stacey worked tirelessly in this campaign and tonight it paid off.

I would also like to take the opportunity to thank Chairman Steele and the Republican National Committee for the money and manpower they provided in this winning effort. I am grateful for all that he and his team have done to help ensure that 2010 is a successful year for the Republican Party and the entire slate of candidates running across the country.

One of my guys on the ground looks at the preliminary numbers on the ground and concludes:

Likely rematch in Nov between Djou and Hanabusa. I don’t think Case can beat her one-on-one, and the fact that she rallied to beat him in the late balloting when the early polls had him up over her, shows he won’t be able to beat her in August. But, between the two, I think Djou would like to have Hanabusa as his opponent rather than Case.  She’s got baggage, and she’s completely tied to the Dem. machine. Independents are more likely to go for Djou with her as his opponent, than they would be if Case was an option.  I think among Case’s 27.6% are a ton of independents. The minor candidates got less than 3% total — good news for Hanabusa since it shows that Djou is going to have to mine Case’s voters for most of the 11% more he’ll need in Nov., and the biggest portion of those voters are Democrats.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case , NRCC

The DCCC Knows No Shame, No Remorse, No Corrections



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Mark Critz, the Democrat running in Pennsylvania’s special House election, apologized for misstating the position of his rival, Tim Burns, on the flat tax and a national sales tax:

But DCCC knows no shame. They’re running a new ad, with the same wrong facts on Burns’s position.

I’d note this is the same line of attack that did jack squat to Republican Charles Djou’s polling numbers in Hawaii’s special election.

Tags: Charles Djou , DCCC , Mark Critz , Tim Burns

Can Either Democrat Catch Up in Hawaii? The Math Is Tough



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One of my readers in Hawaii is plugged into the local political scene, and he sent two updates recently on the special election:

Convinced that [Colleen] Hanabusa cannot win the special, the [Sen. Daniel] Inouye/Democratic Machine has decided to retreat to fight another day – BUT, they don’t want the Dems to unite behind [Ed] Case. If Case doesn’t win the special, then he’ll likely face  Hanabusa in the Democratic primary in August.

Hanabusa and the labor unions have pretty much gone off the air in terms of advertising.

Inouye negotiated the DCCC withdrawal, in exchange for him sending money their way in the fall. Taking the DCCC money away now is really about making Case spend most of his cash now trying to catch Djou, thereby draining his funds. Hanabusa is going to be well-funded by the Inouye machine and the labor unions to come back again in August, and this time it’ll be 1-on-1 with Case. She’ll have all the advantages and she’ll probably beat Case 55-45 or thereabouts, gaining herself a rematch against Djou in a 1-on-1 contest in Nov.

One person told me that the entire special election scenario was really cooked up to try and deplete the campaign accounts of Djou and Case both, thinking both would have trouble raising replacement funds in the short interval between the special and the general in Oct. The thinking was that if Hanabusa won the special that would be great. But if she didn’t, they want to handicap her two competitors in the fall by forcing them through two campaigns rather than just one. Hanabusa figures to have plenty of cash given her supporters, and the others really have to look to the mainland for money. That’s viewed negatively by Hawaii voters.

The special is pretty much in the bag for Djou now. Next will be the Aug. Dem primary.

And in the second update:

There are some numbers now on the poll you cited yesterday showing Djou with 39.5%, and both Case and Hanabusa roughly equal at 25.5% each. That was an automated telephone poll done by a Mass. Company, and involved a very large sample — 1081 likely voters — with a margin of error of only 3%.

And, the Honolulu Elections Office reports that nearly 30% of all mailed ballots have been returned already. Given the poll results, and the fact that only 70% of the mailed ballots remain outstanding – only a portion of which will actually be returned – I don’t think it is mathematically possible for either Case or Hanabusa to catch up. This is over.

I hope he’s right, but I wouldn’t count any chickens before they hatch. By my back-of-the-envelope math, if yesterday’s poll of returned ballots is accurate, then out of all possible ballots, Djou has 11.85 percent, and Case and Hanabusa each have 7.65 percent. That’s a nice lead, and yes, a lot of those outstanding ballots won’t be returned, but there’s still a chance that one of the two Democrats could enjoy a surge by the May 22 deadline.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case

Djou Leads Early Voting With 45 Percent



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New polling mocks my nagging doubts expressed below:

More than half the respondents — 52.6 percent — had already voted. And of that group, Djou got 45 percent of the vote, one reason it’s so difficult to imagine trends changing in any significant way between now and May 22.

Tags: Charles Djou

Do Djou and Burns Have Enough Gas in the Tank?



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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s retreat from Hawaii is a nice omen for Republican Charles Djou, who is running against two Democrats, Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case. But the voting in this race is still going on, and I hope he and his grassroots organizers are keeping the pedal to the metal.

I put both special elections in my “yellow/middle” category in my list of 99. There have been quite a few nice indicators for Djou and for Tim Burns, who is running in Pennsylvania’s special House election. (In Murtha’s old district, Democrat Mark Critz continues to run against the health-care bill.)

But these are districts where the GOP hasn’t been competitive in quite a while, and I’ve got a nagging doubt or two about the get-out-the-vote operations. Yes, independents are trending away from Democrats lately, but will they remember to vote in a special election? (Or by mail, as in Hawaii?) I have little doubt that Djou and Burns will perform better than any Republican has in those districts in many years; but the question is, will it be enough to win the seat?

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case , Mark Critz , Tim Burns

For a Democratic District, This Place Votes for a Lot of Republicans



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Oh, we don’t need to worry about Charles Djou, Democrats think. It’s a heavily Democratic district, and even if he wins in a three-way race, he’s toast in November.

Er, maybe not:

The Republican candidate for governor has won the 1st Congressional District the past four gubernatorial elections: Pat Saiki in a failed bid in 1994, [Laura] [Linda] Lingle in her loss in 1998, and Lingle’s 2002 and 2006 wins.

Tags: Charles Djou

Djou You Want an On-the-Ground Report From Hawaii?



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A reader in Hawaii who’s a fan of Campaign Spot and Hugh Hewitt gives a report from on the ground:

Two public workers unions (UPW – United Public Workers Union, and the HSTA — Teacher’s Union) went on the air with negative ads against Djou over the weekend.  Both are aimed primarily at Djou – though one takes shots at Case as well, and both unions have endorsed Hanabusa.

The Hawaii legislature just adjourned Thursday, having done little or nothing to address a huge budget shortfall looming over the next two years.  Dems DOMINATE the Legislature – 23-2 in the 25-member State Senate (Hanabusa is the Senate President), and 45-6 in the State House.   The best thing they did was AVOID raising the state’s General Excise Tax, which was being demanded by all the public worker unions who wanted the additional revenue to avoid furloughs and layoffs of government employees.

But, on the last day of the session, within the last 4 hours, the Dems brought up – without notice to the public – a Civil Unions bill that had been tabled at the beginning of the session, and quickly passed it, sending the measure to the Gov.  The same bill had been voted down last year after a big public outcry – led by the religious community in Hawaii, principally the Mormon and Evangelical communities. That same group was ready to go at the beginning of the legislative session back in January, but the Dems tabled the bill.  When they called it back up on the last day, they caught the opponents off guard, and it passed 31-20. This has really energized the more conservative elements of the Hawaii electorate – both Dem and GOP — just as the ballots began to land in mailboxes in the Congressional race.

And, this came after that poll that was just covered by the Advertiser article you posted from yesterday showing Djou with an expanding lead.

Another thing – don’t look for either Hanabusa or Case to drop out.  They are going to face each other again in 3 months, in the Dem primary for the Nov. general election. Even if Djou wins the special, Hanabusa and Case are fighting for the Dem party’s support in August. If Hanabusa runs a bad third, some of the unions that have lined up behind her might rethink their position, and switch to Case. Case has won 3 times for Congress in the Hawaii 2nd District. It would also likely spell the end of Dan Inouye’s “Kingmaker” status in Hawaii Dem politics. He’s done everything he can do to boost Hanabusa, and based on the poll  you cited, only 1 in 5 voters in the 1st District are willing to vote for her. That is a stunning rejection of the Hawaii Democrats’ “machine.”

. . . [roughly] 1 in 6 voters within the 1st Congressional District live within Djou’s City Council District.

Council races are nonpartisan, but Djou won his first election for City Council 51-39.  He is the only openly-avowed Republican on the City Council – and the Dems were unable to mount a challenge against him in the Dem year of 2006, with him  running unopposed.

If Djou wins the special, with the money and other benefits of incumbency, he might be tough to beat in Nov. as well. If Hanabusa runs third, she may think she has a better shot in a 2-way race, but she’ll be very damaged goods, and she has a significant amount of political baggage now.

If Case runs 3rd, its hard to see him mounting a real serious challenge in Nov. He’s a pariah in the  Hawaii Dem. Party, and I don’t think he’ll ever get the state party to support him.  I suspect they would look within the party establishment to find a replacement for Hanabusa, and if they can’t win the seat back from Djou in 2010, they’ll groom someone for a shot at him in 2012 when Obama will be on the ballot again in the District.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case

Nice Guy Charles Djou Takes Some Shots at His Opponents



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As noted yesterday, a Honolulu Advertiser poll puts Charles Djou up by 8 in a highly competitive three-way race in Hawaii’s 1st district special election.

And now he’s got another ad up:

I keep hearing the argument that “even if Djou wins, the Democrat is sure to beat him in November.” I’m not so sure. It appears the only congressman from Hawaii to involuntarily lose office was Neil Abercrombie, when he won a special election while losing a primary in 1986 (and he won the seat back in 1990). The rest have retired to run for other office, retired entirely, or died in office. If Djou gets in, I think he’s got a good shot of proving he’s a non-scary Republican who can represent the district well.

Tags: Charles Djou , Colleen Hanabusa , Ed Case

Djou or Djou Not; There Is No Try.



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In Hawaii’s 1st congressional district, ballots for the vote-by-mail special elections arrive today. Greeting Honolulu Advertiser readers today:

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai’i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district.

Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

This is great news for Djou, but a poll lead and about two bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. He and his team have to maintain an all-out push to get out the vote in this heavily Democratic district; I wouldn’t be surprised to see a surge of pressure on one of the Democrats to drop out.

You’re seeing a few liberal bloggers declare that this is such a unique circumstance that if Djou wins, come November, any Democratic nominee will knock him off. I think they’re wildly presumptuous. Djou is a genuinely good candidate, near-impossible to paint as just another Republican. The DCCC attacks on him are pathetically generic; either their research team has quit or Djou really has never done anything controversial or unpopular in his political career. If Djou wins, he’ll have a half a year or so to start serving constituents and building up the traditional advantages of an incumbent.

Tags: Charles Djou

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