Over in New Jersey:

Hours after Chris Christie set the special election clock in motion, New Jersey Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) started making a round of calls telling people [he] plans to run for the Senate, sources confirmed to POLITICO.

Pallone, who had acted as next-in-line for Lautenberg’s seat for years, had been on the fence about whether to challenge Newark mayor Cory Booker in a primary in 2014 for the seat.

Booker is a strong fundraiser and is the odds-on favorite. But the special election this year allows Pallone to keep his congressional seat if he loses, making this something of a free shot for him.

The coverage seems to suggest Booker is running. So Booker’s big pledge from last December is now moot, huh? “Let there be no doubt, I will complete my full second term as mayor. As for my political future, I will explore the possibility of running for the United States Senate in 2014.”

Notice the lack of conditions or wiggle room in that statement.

But I guess he meant, “unless our 89-year-old senator dies in office or something.”

Something to keep in mind as New Jersey governor Chris Christie contemplates the decision of appointing an interim senator:

The state has 5,463,097 registered voters, as of May 7.

That total breaks down into:
2,608,636 unaffiliated voters (47 percent)
1,779,250 Democrats (32.5 percent)
1,070,906 Republicans (19.6 percent)

Christie’s done quite well in this heavily Democratic electorate — “63 percent of those surveyed in a recent Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll saying they approve of the job Christie is doing. That rating ticks slightly higher — 64 percent — among the coveted independents” — and so it’s unlikely he’ll pick anyone who would be seen as antagonistic to the state’s Democrats.

If Robert Costa is hearing from his sources that Christie will appoint a Republican, then it’s probably a safe bet. But Christie’s probably looking for the Republican most acceptable to the state’s Democratic voters.

RIP, Senator Frank Lautenberg.

According to New Jersey election law, Governor Chris Christie can appoint a senator until a special election is held, and that special election could occur in November, but Christie could schedule it some other time:

19:3-26. Vacancies in United States senate; election to fill; temporary appointment by governor.

     19:3-26. If a vacancy shall happen in the representation of this State in the United States senate, it shall be filled at the general election next succeeding the happening thereof, unless such vacancy shall happen within 70 days next preceding such election, in which case it shall be filled by election at the second succeeding general election, unless the governor of this State shall deem it advisable to call a special election therefor, which he is authorized hereby to do.

     The governor of this State may make a temporary appointment of a senator of the United States from this State whenever a vacancy shall occur by reason of any cause other than the expiration of the term; and such appointee shall serve as such senator until a special election or general election shall have been held pursuant to law and the Board of State Canvassers can deliver to his successor a certificate of election.

You may look at incumbent Republican governor Chris Christie’s gigantic, 30-percentage-point lead in polling for this year’s race in New Jersey and ask yourself, “If he’s so far ahead, why is he spending so much on television advertising?”

Christie spent $1.5 million on the first ad of his reelection bid, and recently dropped another $850,000 to run radio and television versions of a negative attack ad against his likely Democratic rival, state senator Barbara Buono.

Obviously, New Jersey is one of the most expensive states for campaigning, as it is covered by the most expensive television market in the country (New York) and the fourth-most-expensive (Philadelphia). But a big factor is that a significant portion of Christie’s current campaign cash was raised for his primary race (Christie faces nominal opposition from Seth Grossman), so all of that money must be spent by the state’s June 4 primary.

Second, while Buono’s fundraising has been pretty anemic, a liberal group headed by Buono’s former spokesman spent tons of cash on attack ads hitting Christie:

A liberal advocacy group — One New Jersey — has sunk another $700,000 into purchasing airtime for advertisements opposing Gov. Chris Christie, PolitickerNJ.com reports. That brings the group’s total purchases to $1.8 million for television and another $100,00 on radio, the report said.

Russ Schriefer, a veteran of Christie’s 2009 campaign, is advising him again. He and his longtime business partner, Stuart Stevens, the campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012, visited National Review’s Washington offices today. Schriefer said that while the outlook for Christie is good right now, he has little doubt that at some point polling in the governor’s race will tighten, at least slightly, as Democrats who are not currently paying much attention to the race drift back into the Buono camp.

Schriefer’s comment about the primary funds echoed one of Stevens’ comments about an unforeseen challenge for the Romney camp in the late spring of 2012. Romney had effectively won the Republican nomination but could not spend money raised for the general election until he was officially named the GOP nominee at the convention in Tampa. Romney and his team were left trying to get people to donate, but only to the primary fund.

“It’s very tough to raise money for a primary campaign that everybody thinks you’ve already won,” Stevens said.

At first glance, this would be an argument for moving conventions to much earlier in the year. Or perhaps the distinction between primary- and general-election campaign donations should be eliminated entirely.

New Jersey Democrats still have a month to find a warm body not named “Barbara Buono” to run against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie this year. (Okay, Troy Webster, an aide to the mayor of East Orange, is running in the Democratic primary, too.)

Christie unveiled his debut television ad today. At this early point, this race is looking like a rout; besides the lopsided early polling results, Buono has raised $696,000 and qualified for additional $890,449 in state matching funds.

That $1.7 million or so looks good… until you see Christie has raised more than $5 million so far. (Updated numbers will be released in mid-May.) Because of the ad rates in the New York and Philadelphia television markets, New Jersey is a particularly expensive state for campaigns.

Spending isn’t everything, of course; Jon Corzine spent $31 million in 2009, while Christie spent only $17 million.

Perhaps Chris Christie’s greatest trick has been to persuade New Jersey Democrats that there’s no point in making a serious effort against him this cycle.

A new poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University finds New Jersey governor Chris Christie clinging to his narrow lead over his Democratic challenger, state senator Barbara Buono, 58 percent to 22 percent.

Among self-described Democrats, Buono leads . . . 40 percent to 36 percent.

Christie is winning among women, 54 percent to 24 percent.

The pollsters summarize:

Although a blue state, a solid majority of Democrats (55%) and independents (61%) approve of the job Christie is doing and even more Republicans (83%) give the governor high marks. Other groups who are not considered likely suspects among his supporters include women (62%), those from union households (52%), and non-whites (56%).

A majority of voters are also pleased with the direction the state is headed. Fifty-seven percent say it’s headed in the right direction and, with the exception of the usual partisan differences, perceptions are largely positive across relevant demographic categories.

With numbers like these, the big question is, just how much money does the Democratic Governors Association want to spend in New Jersey this year? Or more specifically, how much do they have to spend to avoid the appearance that they’re giving up on this race, even though they’re sooner or later going to have to admit that with numbers like these, Buono amounts to a sacrificial lamb?

State senator Barbara Buono, the likely challenger to Chris Christie in this year’s New Jersey governor’s race, was injured in a car accident last night. Thankfully, Buono’s injury was minor, a cut on her forehead; she was sent to a hospital as a precaution and released.

According to reports, she was not wearing a seat belt.

It’s an awful mistake with a strange echo of another car accident, involving another New Jersey governor:

Two other signs of New Jersey governor Chris Christie maximizing his momentum in the very early moments of a 2013 reelection bid: Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg will host a fundraiser next month as part of Christie’s first out-of-state campaign trip.

Then the Democratic Governors Association is left to . . . start a petition of people urging Zuckerberg to not donate to Christie.

Really.

Note they characterize Christie as a “right-wing Republican darling.”

How dare that billionaire give money to a candidate he prefers! The Democrats act as if Silicon Valley money is their birthright.

As Republicans watch New Jersey governor Chris Christie in the coming year, there are three facets to keep in mind.

1) Christie’s surge in popularity following Hurricane Sandy has not faded and in fact seems to be accelerating; this week Quinnipiac found him at a 74 percent job-approval rating (!) and 68 percent say he deserves reelection. Christie takes 30 to 35 percent of the Democratic vote. He’s already dissuaded Newark mayor Cory Booker from a gubernatorial bid, and he’s probably going to match up against little-known state senator Barbara Buono.

While it’s only January, it’s conceivable that Christie will waltz into reelection having largely neutered the opposition party, on a scale not seen since Bobby Jindal faced no major Democrat opponent in Louisiana in 2011.

2) There is no indication that Republicans in New Jersey have any problem with Christie, despite his recent criticism of other Republicans, embrace of Obama, etc. Quinnipiac found Christie’s approval/disapproval split among New Jersey Republicans was 93 percent to 4 percent, and 70 percent of Garden State GOP voters approve of Christie’s criticism of the House GOP.

3) With the GOP vote locked in, and looking strong among independents and even Democrats, Christie has absolutely no incentive to do anything particularly controversial or conservative in this state in the coming year.

This will infuriate some Republicans outside New Jersey — but criticism from Republicans outside the state will only help him with Democrats and independents inside the state.

Now, the big question will be, if reelected, does Chris Christie use his second term to reestablish himself as a voice of fiscal sanity and limited government spending, making tougher decisions that his new fans might not like? Or does he do the full Charlie Crist/Arlen Specter?

Gee, do you think Chris Christie wants to discourage any other Democrats from considering a challenge against him this year?

Governor Chris Christie’s campaign raised over $2.1 million since its launch on November 26, 2012. In just 36 days without a single event and in the midst of the holiday season, contributors donated an unprecedented amount to support the Governor’s re-election.

“Governor Christie’s campaign continues to gain momentum because New Jerseyans believe in his decisive leadership,” said campaign strategist Mike DuHaime. “This unprecedented financial support in such a short time demonstrates the overwhelming support from residents across the Garden State. Governor Christie has made tough choices to achieve real progress on meaningful reforms for all New Jerseyans. Whether it’s cutting taxes, improving education or pension and benefit reform, Governor Christie has fought for a middle-class reform agenda that protects taxpayers and reins in the cost of government.”

Last month Governor Christie received the endorsement of the 20,000-member Laborers International Union of North America (LIUNA) which backed Democrat Jon Corzine in the 2009 campaign.

Christie’s only declared rival, Democratic state senator Barbara Buono, happily announced yesterday she had raised “nearly $250,000.” So Christie begins the race with a mere 8-to-1 advantage in fundraising.

At this point, the lone Democrat running against Chris Christie in New Jersey’s 2013 governor’s race is state senator Barbara Buono of Metuchen — a relatively little-known state lawmaker, who begins about 40 points behind the GOP incumbent.

Now there’s word that New Jersey Democrats are so worried about their prospects against Christie that longtime rivals are willing to contemplate a truce over it:

In his emerging role as the state Democrats’ chief recruiter, Senate President Stephen Sweeney dined with state Sen. Richard Codey last week to gauge the veteran lawmaker’s interest in running for governor, The Star-Ledger learned today.

The unlikely meeting between the bitter rivals from opposite ends of the state took place in New Brunswick, according to two sources familiar with the meeting who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.

Sweeney ousted Codey as Senate president in 2010, opening wounds that have yet to heal. Codey, who stepped in as governor for 14 months several years ago, is considering whether to seek a full term in the governor’s mansion this year, and so is Sweeney.

Sweeney has also reached out to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th) to gauge his interest in challenging state Sen. Barbara Buono (D-Middlesex) in a party primary and, if successful, the popular Gov. Chris Christie in November.

The efforts on the part of Sweeney underscore his concern about the ability of Buono — with whom he has also tangled — to put together a formidable campaign and protect Democratic legislative seats, particularly in competitive South Jersey legislative districts.

Yesterday, the country watched Christie attack House Republicans with relish. Currently on a polling high within the state (“off the charts”) and with a potentially weak rival in November, Christie may see a tantalizing opportunity for his personal political power and prestige, even if it damages his reputation among Republicans nationally: to win reelection by a wide margin through triangulation — as a Republican, but a Republican acceptable to many independents and Democrats because he’s not like those Republicans in Washington. It’s Clintonian triangulation brought to the Garden State.

Keep in mind that right now, Chris Christie is the highest-rated Republican nationally:

Of 814 registered voters surveyed, 55 percent who have heard of Christie viewed him favorably, while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was seen favorably by 46 percent of the respondents, and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana by 45 percent.

Fifty-nine percent of Republicans, 52 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents surveyed from Dec. 10 to 16 by telephone and cellphone viewed him favorably.

While trashing House Republicans might irk some members of his party, Christie’s general disdain for the way Congress has operated in recent years isn’t likely to hurt him very much if indeed he has interests in running for president in 2016.

In New Jersey, some Democrats are still hoping that Newark mayor Cory Booker decides to challenge incumbent Republican Chris Christie. But one other Democrat has thrown her hat in the ring, Barbara Buono.

Buono is a longtime fixture in New Jersey Democratic politics; she was elected to the Metuchen Borough Council in 1992, then served in the New Jersey General Assembly from 1994 to 2002 and in the state Senate from 2002 to January 2012.

Her declaration of candidacy offered some very familiar themes:

Today, our state has an unemployment crisis . . . the highest jobless rate in over three decades. Instead of bipartisan leadership, Governor Christie’s offered trickle-down economics — policies that have landed New Jersey 47th out of 50 states for economic growth. We need a real plan to create good-paying jobs all across our state.

Today, we’re not doing enough to prepare our young people for the global economy. But instead of finding common ground, the Governor scapegoats our teachers. We need to make all of our schools centers of innovation, and make higher education more affordable.

We have a property tax crisis, with middle class families hit by a 20 percent tax hike . . . all while the Governor pushes income tax cuts for millionaires. We need a tax policy that supports strong middle class neighborhoods . . . not one that drives families away.

The unemployment rate in New Jersey has remained stubbornly high, at 9.7 percent (and this is separate from Hurricane Sandy effects), but it has dipped slightly in the past two months. Christie’s spokesmen emphasize that the state has added 73,600 private-sector jobs since February 2010, the first full month he was in office.

For all of the high-profile tough talk between Christie and his state’s teacher’s unions — at one point he called them “political thugs” — he also worked out a deal for merit pay with them, earning praise from the American Federation of Teachers union.

Christie has not raised the state’s income, sales, or business taxes; he has reduced two state tax credits. State treasury officials estimate that more than 76 percent of earned-income-tax-credit recipients in 2010 owed no New Jersey tax — meaning it was a reduction of a state payment to them, not an increase in their taxes.

(I’ll admit a soft spot for Buono’s hometown of Metuchen, New Jersey. But New Jerseyans may want to be careful; the much-disliked tax-hiking former governor Jim Florio lived there, too. And the infamous former governor Jim McGreevey went to St. Joseph’s High School in Metuchen as well. Must be something in the water there.)

Booker said he’s still considering a run for governor next year.

The lesson of today’s Morning Jolt is that campaign news never really stops . . .

Could She Who Scoffed at Red Sox Fans Be Back?

Oh please, oh please . . .

She is the woman who couldn’t beat Scott Brown, but now she’s the Democrats’ best hope to keep the governor’s office in 2014.

Don’t laugh, but that woman is Attorney General Martha Coakley.

Lt. Gov. Tim Murray? Treasurer Steve Grossman? Please. If they’re the best the party can offer, then Republicans might actually have a chance at winning a statewide race again.

Coakley is still scarred from her 2010 Senate defeat, and many Democrats shudder at the thought of her running again. There is a possibility Gov. Deval Patrick could appoint her to U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry’s seat if Kerry gets a Cabinet post, but sources said she’s more interested in succeeding Patrick in the Corner Office.

“That’s what she’s definitely looking at,” one veteran Democratic strategist said.

Now the irony is that I’ve heard Scott Brown is also more interested in being governor of Massachusetts than running for Senate again.

Brown vs. Coakley: The Rematch!

Judging a Booker Poll by Its Cover

It’s early, but . . . maybe the 2009 gubernatorial races aren’t going to be so exciting. In Virginia, we’ll see Ken Cuccinelli as the GOP nominee, since Bill Bolling has suddenly dropped his bid. At this point, it looks like Cuccinelli will be taking on the jovial soul Terry McAuliffe, a former DNC chair who flamed out in a 2009 bid. McAuliffe would be a very, very “northern Virginia” candidate, which may or may not be enough in an off-year election.

Then there’s New Jersey, where everyone thought there was a chance of a clash of the titans, incumbent Republican Chris Christie against Democrat Cory Booker, mayor of Newark. Eh, maybe not so much:

Newark Mayor Cory Booker remains the wild card, with political observers believing he is the Democrat with the best chance of ousting Christie. He didn’t respond to an interview request and his Twitter account was silent on political matters.

Booker fares best among Democrats against Christie in head-to-head tests in a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll but still would get thumped by Christie, 53 percent to 34 percent, if the election took place now.

The poll also shows 59 percent of New Jersey voters support a second term for Christie, with 32 percent opposing. Support for Christie’s re-election has risen dramatically since before Sandy, said David Red­lawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and a professor of political science at Rutgers.

The sequence could scare off Booker, Red­lawsk said. “Any Democrat, even Booker, has to take these numbers seriously. At the same time Booker remains the Democrat who would seem to have the best chance in the early running.”

Liz Marlantes of the Christian Science Monitor looks at some recent examples of governors who had their popularity changed by hurricanes:

. . . the goodwill Christie amassed in the weeks immediately following the storm shouldn’t be underestimated, either. A perhaps more relevant comparison is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — who, interestingly, seems to be pondering a 2016 run himself. Bush was widely praised by Democrats and Republicans alike for his handling of a series of hurricanes that battered the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005. The St. Petersburg Times dubbed him “The Hurricane Governor” in a laudatory profile that quoted Democratic strategists who’d worked for his opponent as saying he’d been “a superb leader.” Two years later, Bush left office with a nearly 60 percent approval rating.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that Bush’s predecessor, former Florida governor Lawton Chiles, was roundly criticized in the wake of 1992’s Hurricane Andrew — with his approval rating in the state going all the way down to a dismal 22 percent. Two years later he won reelection, anyway.

In what is undoubtedly the same kind of buzz that got President Jon Huntsman where he is today, the New Yorker is suddenly writing gushing profiles that talk about Christie’s presidential potential:

As a launching pad for Christie’s 2013 reëlection campaign, all of this could hardly be better, and it also provides him with a ready route to 2016. If he wins next year, which seems likely, he can continue the process of rebuilding the areas battered by Sandy and push through more reforms, while quietly constructing the political operation and campaign chest he needed for a run in 2016. Here, too, being from Jersey is an advantage. The national media and the moneymen are just across the river. (Having been unsuccessfully prevailed upon to run in 2012 by a group of super-rich Republicans, including Rupert Murdoch and Wilbur Ross, Christie shouldn’t have much trouble raising cash.)

Ahem. That was before he was seen as the guy who spent the final weeks before Election Day doing more to restore Obama’s brand as a bipartisan healer more than anyone else this side of Richard Lugar. Some of those GOP moneymen are going to be a little grumpy if Christie calls in the near future, I suspect. They continue:

Small wonder, then, that Christie is widely regarded as one of the front-runners for the G.O.P. nomination in 2016. But before he can be seen as a wholly viable candidate, he still has some issues to resolve, including his record as U.S. Attorney, his political identity inside the Republican Party, and his health.

That last item is a legitimate concern, although clearly Christie has managed to be an effective governor with his weight issues. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his ambitions after 2013 will be his waistline.

Thanksgiving is over, and announcements of candidacy for 2013 and 2014 are coming at a surprisingly fast pace.

In Virginia, Republicans have a candidate for the state’s lieutenant governor position:

Pete Snyder, a technology entrepreneur and former Fox News commentator who oversaw Republican campaigns in Virginia this year, announced Monday that he will run for lieutenant governor. Snyder, 40, began serving as a paid commentator on Fox last summer while in the thick of Virginia’s heated races for president and U.S. Senate. He recently stepped down from that TV role, as the Virginian-Pilot first reported. This is the Fairfax County resident’s first bid for elective office.

In Illinois, a familiar name wants to return to Congress:

Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson, D-Ill., announced today that she is running to replace former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. after his resignation last week.

Halvorson represented a Chicago district in Congress from 2009 until 2011 but lost her reelection bid to Republican Adam Kinzinger, who was just re-elected to a second term. Halvorson also challenged Jackson in the primary for the 2012 election in a newly redistricted seat but lost to the longtime congressman.

In Pennsylvania, Republican governor Tom Corbett has his first announced challenger, former environmental-protection chief John Hanger. The Philadelphia Inquirer predicts a crowded Democratic primary:

Millionaire Tom Knox, who ran for mayor of Philadelphia in 2007, and York businessman Tom Wolfe, who served as [Governor Ed] Rendell’s revenue secretary, have told the Associated Press they, too, might run.

Among other names mentioned in Democratic circles: former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, who narrowly lost a 2010 run for the U.S. Senate; Attorney General-elect Kathleen Kane, who won more votes statewide than President Obama on Nov. 6; Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski; state Treasurer Rob McCord and U.S. Rep. Allyson Y. Schwartz, both of whom just were reelected; and Jack Wagner, the retiring state auditor general.

And finally, Chris Christie is running for reelection as governor of New Jersey. This morning the Quinnipiac University polling center finds Christie with a 72 percent approval rating, “the highest score Quinnipiac University ever measured for a New Jersey governor.”

Four points to keep in mind as you consider the reactions to the speeches we heard last night, and the ones we’ll hear Wednesday and Thursday:

One: The vast majority of folks in the media listen to speeches from political candidates and lawmakers all day long, week after week, month after month, year after year. They pick out clichés, tune out flowery rhetoric, scoff at awkward metaphors, and seek out novelty. (I’m probably as guilty of this as anyone.) The vast majority of the television audience sees relatively few political speeches in a year. Seeing a confident figure give an energetic speech, with pauses for roaring applause, and perhaps most importantly, saying things the listener agrees with, is going to get a positive response, even if the written text is nothing special.

Two: The reaction within the convention hall may be quite different from the reaction of the television audience. A reviewer may see the enthusiastic reaction of delegates and overestimate its appeal; also, I’ve heard that the acoustics in the hall are tough in some corners.

Three: People who do not like to hear speeches from Republicans do not watch Republican convention speeches, and the same is true for the Democrats. Thus, very few people will watch the speeches and not like them.

Four: Among the pundit class, there is a growing inclination to rate speeches as either really, really good, or really really bad. For example, this response to Chris Christie’s speech last night from Politico seems baffling to me:

There is no mistaking what a successful keynote speech for Chris Christie would have looked and sounded like. There would have been an electric reaction from the crowd in the convention hall. It would have been followed by waves of effusive media commentary about how people had just heard the future of the Republican Party.

Judged by these standards, there is also no mistaking what the New Jersey governor delivered instead: A primetime belly-flop, one that notably failed to clear either of those two high bars.

Really? A belly-flop? (Maybe they just wanted to use the word “belly” to describe the performance of the rotund governor.)

Sure, Christie began in a quite personal fashion, in a way we’re used to hearing from the nominee. Sure, he didn’t say much about Romney until well into the speech. Sure, there are signs he spoke a bit faster than normal towards the end, aiming to hit the 11 p.m. deadline precisely. But was it a bad speech? Would anyone argue that it was really that badly delivered? Didn’t he speak with a lot of passion and energy, didn’t his jokes generate actual laughs — “in the automobile of life, dad was just a passenger; Mom was the driver” — and didn’t the applause lines generate genuine applause?

Politico is at least self-aware enough to write:

What Christie is facing may be something close to what Clinton faced at the Atlanta convention. That speech was a perfectly fluent summons to Democrats. But, like Christie’s, it had been preceded by great anticipation because Clinton, then 42, had been widely touted as the future of the party. But it was clear that his words bored delegates in the convention hall, who were shown on TV paying no attention as Clinton droned on (for 33 minutes but it felt far longer) and mocked him with his only sustained applause line when he announced “in conclusion.”

Christie may be facing something similar to Clinton. The commentary about how poorly he did grew louder and more scathing as the media echo chamber, including late-night comedians, roared into high gear. He rescued himself from flames with a sterling performance on “The Tonight Show” in which he joked that the keynote speech “wasn’t my finest hour—it wasn’t even my finest hour-and-a-half.” In Tampa, it is clear the echo chamber is once again kicking into gear.

I cannot help but suspect that the last thing any pundit or analyst wants to say when asked about a speech is to respond, “It was pretty good.” Except that some speeches are “pretty good.” Some people will watch Christie and say it was excellent, just what they wanted to hear. Others will say they wanted to hear a bit more of this or that. But because an assessment of “pretty good” fades quickly in our noisy and cacophonous political environment, every speech is increasingly labeled as greatness or failure on a grand scale.

From today’s edition of the Morning Jolt, some buzz about how each swing state looks at this point, an assessment of the night’s earlier speakers, and then . . .

The Big Names

So, we in the press often get the written prepared speeches, or at least excerpts, before delivery. The convention organizers do this because they want the text printed online and in the next day’s morning papers. The early buzz on Chris Christie’s speech was pretty bad. The word was that it barely mentioned Mitt Romney, that it had no red meat, that it was all about Christie and that you could easily be lulled into thinking he was there to accept the nomination.

There was less buzz about Ann Romney’s speech. There should have been: Brit Hume called it “The single most effective speech I’ve ever heard from a political wife.” Ari Fleischer: “One of the best speeches I’ve ever heard.”

This was a great section:

I’m not sure if men really understand this, but I don’t think there’s a woman in America who really expects her life to be easy. In our own ways, we all know better! And that’s fine. We don’t want easy. But these last few years have been harder than they needed to be. It’s all the little things — that price at the pump you just can’t believe, the grocery bills that just get bigger; all those things that used to be free, like school sports, are now one more bill to pay. It’s all the little things that pile up to become big things. And the big things — the good jobs, the chance at college, that home you want to buy, just get harder. Everything has become harder. We’re too smart to know there aren’t easy answers. But we’re not dumb enough to accept that there aren’t better answers.

That line might be the very best line of the night.

Perhaps Christie felt the need to demonstrate that he’s more than the big guy who bellows at obnoxious hecklers at political rallies. But I liked it more than I expected; I thought the stories of his mother worked a lot.

Maybe the best section, one that dovetails nicely with Paul Ryan’s presence on the Republican ticket:

We believe in telling seniors the truth about our overburdened entitlements.

We know seniors not only want these programs to survive, but they just as badly want them secured for their grandchildren.

Seniors are not selfish.

They believe seniors will always put themselves ahead of their grandchildren. So they prey on their vulnerabilities and scare them with misinformation for the cynical purpose of winning the next election.

Their plan: whistle a happy tune while driving us off the fiscal cliff, as long as they are behind the wheel of power.

We believe that the majority of teachers in America know our system must be reformed to put students first so that America can compete.

Teachers don’t teach to become rich or famous. They teach because they love children.

We believe that we should honor and reward the good ones while doing what’s best for our nation’s future — demanding accountability, higher standards and the best teacher in every classroom.

They believe the educational establishment will always put themselves ahead of children. That self-interest trumps common sense.

They believe in pitting unions against teachers, educators against parents, and lobbyists against children.

They believe in teacher’s unions.

We believe in teachers.

Brit Hume: “He lays out his political philosophy, but he’s also the guy you sit behind at the ballgame.” You mean an obstructed view?

Erik Telford: “You can judge how effective the convention is by how angry the anchors are on MSNBC. So it was a good night.”

With Newark mayor Cory Booker now “dead to” the Obama administration, his expressed interest in remaining as mayor, and poll numbers like these . . . a second term as governor for Chris Christie looks more and more probable.

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – (AP) — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has the highest favorability rating since taking office in a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Tuesday.

The poll shows 50 percent of registered voters surveyed feel favorably toward Christie. That’s up four percentage points from a poll conducted in March.

Those with an unfavorable opinion have declined to 39 percent and 11 percent have no opinion.

Just over half of the respondents say New Jersey is headed in the right direction while 40 percent say it’s on the wrong track.

Independent voters are helping to drive Christie’s favorability rating, increasing by 12 percentage points to 55 percent since March.

Good news is only a new poll away for some political leaders.

The polling news on Chris Christie a week ago:

While Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability ratings show little change since a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, New Jersey voters have become more likely to describe him as stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago, a new survey finds. At the same time, a majority thinks strong leader, independent and smart are also good descriptors of the governor.

The polling news today:

Gov. Chris Christie is more popular than ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from April 3 to 9, found 59 percent of voters approve of the governor’s performance in office, while 36 percent disapprove.

“Whether Gov. Christopher Christie is traveling the nation, campaigning for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, or traveling to Israel to tout New Jersey business, his job-approval rating at home in Trenton continues to climb,” said poll director Maurice Carroll.

Christie’s poll numbers are approaching the highest Quinnipiac has measured for an elected governor since it began polling on New Jersey governors in 1996.

Chris Christie: The stubborn, arrogant, self-centered strong leader who’s on your side!

By the way, the headline on Rachel Maddow’s blog yesterday: “Christie’s Problems Worsen in New Jersey.”

Quinnipiac’s latest survey refutes an argument that few, if any, were making: that adding Chris Christie to a Romney ticket would put New Jersey in the GOP pile.

With Gov. Christopher Christie as his running mate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the GOP front-runner, cuts into President Barack Obama’s lead in New Jersey, but still falls short, trailing 49 – 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Without Gov. Christie, Romney trails President Obama 49 – 39 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.

New Jersey voters support 56 – 33 percent Christie’s proposed 10 percent tax cut. Support is 83 – 11 percent among Republicans and 54 – 34 percent among independent voters. Democrats are opposed 51 – 38 percent. Support for the tax cut rises with household income.

Voters also say 55 – 31 percent the tax cut is fair to people like them. Democrats say unfair 48 – 38 percent.

“Gov. Christopher Christie says he’d be a terrible vice-president and we may never find out. Putting him on the ticket helps the Republicans a little, but not enough, in New Jersey. If the measure of a vice presidential pick is carrying his or her home state, then Gov. Christie comes up short,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“But voters continue to give the Gov good marks on how he’s doing his job in Trenton.

New Jersey voters approve 55 – 38 percent of the job Christie is doing as governor, compared to his all-time high of 58 – 38 percent October 12.

New Jersey voters approve 51 – 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, his best score in eight months, and say 51 – 44 percent he deserves four more years in the White House, also his best score so far.

New Jersey governor Chris Christie, touting his endorsed candidate Mitt Romney at a town hall in New Hampshire last night, went after Jon Huntsman hard.

“I would be kind of pissed if I were Barack Obama — I mean, I give this guy a job, he’s over in China supposedly serving my administration,” said Christie, who appeared at a town hall with Morning Joe co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski in Manchester on Jan. 8. “I wonder a little bit about Huntsman’s integrity.”

The Huntsman campaign responded with their own governor, former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge:

“Shame on Governor Christie for repeating Mitt Romney’s divisive line of attack on Governor Huntsman’s decision to put country before politics.

“The responsibility to represent our country in the most important diplomatic position of the 21st century should be applauded — not politicized.

“This type of divisive attack is exactly what the country is sick and tired of. We deserve better.

“Having served two different presidents as a soldier and a cabinet secretary, I understand firsthand the value of service to one’s country, and that is just one of the many reasons I am proud to support Governor Huntsman.”

Of course, the two criticisms are different. The first, from Romney, argues that no conservative in good standing can work in any capacity in the administration of Barack Obama, because of his liberal agenda in so many policy areas. The second, from Christie, scoffs at the idea that Huntsman didn’t think about running for president until he submitted his resignation (January 31, 2011). Huntsman officially resigned as ambassador on April 30; on May 3, he created a federal political action committee “that will allow him to travel and raise money in the weeks before he’s expected to formally announce a bid.”