My skepticism of a partisan firm’s poll is directly proportional to how badly their preferred campaign needs the good news it brings.
The poll showing a tie comes from Democratic firm Third Eye Strategies. With that name, I figured they were located somewhere near the radioactive Trinity test site in New Mexico, but they’re a Virginia firm.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez’s lead over Democrat Diane Denish has grown to 10 points, and Martinez has also reached the all-important 50 percent threshold, according to a new poll conducted for her campaign. The poll, conducted Sept. 11-13, had Martinez leading 50 percent to 40 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies. You can read the polling memo here.
Nothing flashy, no fancy graphics, no Demonsheeps or folksy Alabamans on a horse. Just pointing out one really key fact that Susana Martinez’s rival, Democrat Diane Denish, failed to mention in her last ad. With one unbelievable unforced error, the Denish campaign just nuked their own credibility.
Upon watching it, you do not merely want to vote for Martinez; you begin to suspect you wouldn’t want to allow any Diane Denish campaign worker into your home.
The bad news for Susana Martinez, the Republican candidate for governor of New Mexico, is that she’s way behind her Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, in campaign cash — about $300,0000 to $2.2 million as of June 25.
Martinez accelerated her fundraising after becoming the nominee and collected three times more money than Denish during the monthlong financial reporting period, which covers May 26 through June 25. Martinez received $611,247 in contributions, with all but about $15,000 of that received after the June 1 primary. Denish raised $187,629.
For what it’s worth, SurveyUSA puts her ahead of the likely Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, 49 percent to 43 percent. No other Republican leads.
New Mexico has been a particularly tough state for Republicans in recent cycles; in 2006, Bill Richardson won reelection 69 percent to 31 percent, and in 2008, they elected their first all-Democratic congressional delegation since 1968. But perhaps the state’s voters are tiring of what they’re getting.