Tags: Illinois

Bloomberg’s Big Spending in an Illinois House Primary


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Former Democratic representative Debbie Halvorson, who is running in the extremely crowded primary in the special election in Illinois’s second congressional district, tells Breitbart.com:

There’s a commercial that everybody knows about, that runs, I think every seven minutes. The mayor of New York (Michael Bloomberg), Mr. Nanny State himself, is trying to come into Illinois and buy himself a seat, and I feel it’s backfired on him. Because, everywhere I go now, I’m swarmed by many many people who are saying “you’ve got my vote.”

Halvorson is A-rated by the NRA and opposes an assault-weapons ban. The Independence USA political action committee, which is controlled by New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, is running the ad, which doesn’t endorse anyone; it just tells people to vote against Halvorson.

This is a Democratic primary with 16 candidates, and most of the highest-profile contenders are liberal, inner-city, black cogs of the Chicago political machine — in a district that stretches out to the southern suburbs. With about 15 of the Democrats competing for the same group of voters, Halvorson could well end up with the largest share of the vote on Primary Day.

Tags: Debbie Halvorson , Illinois , Mike Bloomberg , Special Elections

If Voters in Illinois Sour on You, Mr. President . . .


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The death of Qaddafi, and some pop-culture silliness about television shows fearing to echo or managing to predict actual events, feature in the final Morning Jolt of the week. And then there’s this intriguing polling result:

Illinois? Really?

The headline is a predictable “Poll: Obama tops GOP Rivals in Illinois,” but look beyond that and the implications are pretty stunning:

Obama did best against Perry, with 50.8 percent of respondents reelecting the president and 32.8 percent choosing the Texas governor.

Obama did the worst again Romney, with 46.1 percent to 38.5. Against Cain, the former chief executive officer of Godfather’s Pizza, the percentage was 46.3 percent for Obama against 34 percent for Cain.

Finally against Ron Paul, Obama had a showing of 49.3 percent against 30.3 percent.

The poll is the fourth annual state survey taken by the institute. It surveyed by phone 1,000 registered Illinois voters from Oct. 11 through Oct. 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

“You could look at this as being uncomfortably close for the president in his home state,” institute director David Yepsen said. “On the other hand you could say Obama is holding up fairly well in Illinois, given the difficult year he has had politically and the continued poor performance of the economy.”

Get beyond the “meh” numbers for the Republicans. Note that other than his quasi-home state of Hawaii and perhaps some intensely Democratic state, like Vermont or Maryland, this should be one of Obama’s strongest states. He won it with 61.8 percent in 2008.

Also note, of course, this is registered voters, not likely voters, so if it holds to traditional patterns, it’s probably giving Democrats a slight edge they wouldn’t have among actual votes. (Insert joke about Illinois’s dead casting votes here.) Then we get to this: “The poll shows 51.8 percent of respondents think Obama is doing a good job, while 46.4 percent disapprove.”

In other words, even in the state most inclined to give Obama every benefit of the doubt, they’re souring on him.

“When an incumbent can’t get to 50% against challengers in the other party’s primary, that’s a big red flag in any state,” writes Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. “Undecideds usually break hard against the incumbent, and being below 50% means that the possibility of a loss becomes much greater, especially if turnout shifts in favor of the opponents. When that occurs in an incumbent President’s home state — especially one so solidly Democratic as Illinois — it’s practically a cue for a dirge. Pat Quinn’s 35% job approval rating as Governor isn’t exactly helpful either, as it will depress enthusiasm and grassroots efforts to turn out the vote. Obama may have to avoid Quinn in order to campaign effectively, and that won’t be easy to do. . . . Does this mean Republicans could end up winning Illinois in a general election? I wouldn’t bet money on that outcome, but that’s not the real issue here. What this means is that Obama will have to bet money on Illinois, and a lot of it, to keep the GOP from taking his home state in November 2012. That’s money that Obama won’t be spending elsewhere, like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, and other states that he needs to keep in order to win re-election.”

To be honest, I’m not even sure Obama will need to spend much money to keep Illinois, and judging by the fundraising so far, Obama isn’t likely to lose in 2012 because of a lack of funds. What I do find significant about this is that if Obama’s numbers look mediocre here, they’re much worse in much less friendly territory, and thus, barring some dramatic change in the next 13 months, he’s doomed. Fairly early in the evening in 2004, appearing on NRANews.com and calling in to ABC News.com, I was confidently projecting a George W. Bush win, based on how John Kerry was dramatically underperforming Gore in non-swing states like Connecticut and New Jersey. If Kerry was under-performing Gore in heavily Democratic states, it was hard to believe he would somehow outperform Gore’s threshold in tougher places like Florida.

But . . . still a lot of race to run.

Tags: Al Gore , Barack Obama , Illinois , John Kerry

Illinois Treasurer: Don’t Loan Any More Money to My State!


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Ah, the political culture that our president marinated in:

Illinois chief fiscal officer [Republican Treasurer Dan Rutherford] said Monday he is willing to dial up the bond houses and finance companies to alert them that lending the state more money, as Gov. Pat Quinn  has proposed, would be a ‘major risk.’ . . . The backlog of unpaid bills will reach $8 billion by July, Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka recently estimated. Rutherford says the debt from past borrowing has soared to $45 billion in recent years, which amounts to $10,000 for every household in the state. As a result, Illinois has the second-worst credit rating in the nation, above only California, he added.

We need to borrow more money so we can pay down our debt!

Tags: Illinois

Of All the Democrats to Hang on . . . Pat Quinn? Blago’s Successor?


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The GOP keeps Mark Kirk’s seat. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Robert Dold; I underestimated his chances all cycle long.

And yet, this Illinois Campaign Spot reader warns the new Republicans to not get too comfortable:

Greetings from still occupied Illinois. Kirk and the House candidates won, Brady BOTCHES the gov race. Of all the Dems to survive last night………Pat Quinn ?

As you said a feel bad landslide. All those new House Republicans from Illinois better not get too comfy because they will get redistricted to the far side of the moon now. House Speaker Mike Madigan will give Quinn the keys to the red train at Santa’s Village and continue to be the real Governor of Illinois (as he has been since Jim Edgar, the last real Governor Illinois had). So I get a state income tax increase and a whopper of a property tax increase. Yay for me.

Take a look at the vote %s from the Gov and Senate races, might explain why the House results were so better than the Senate. House races are in their little districts, Senate…………everybody in the state gets a shot at you. The % of the vote out of Cook County…………..most of that is African American from Chicago, plus heavy city union vote. Quinn came out of Chicago alone up 4 to 1, lot of ground to make up around the state. Statewide, not just in Illinois, monolithic African American vote is HARD to beat, even in a wave. GOP needs a message or candidate to strip some of that off. Any state with large African American vote is going to be a tough go in 2012 for whoever the GOP candidate vs Dear Leader.

I would throw in one point about redistricting: People move, demographics change, and after a while, even safe seats don’t seem so safe anymore. Phil Hare’s awkwardly drawn district lines were meant to create a safe Democratic seat, and Congressman-elect Bobby Schilling laid that notion to rest.

Tags: Bobby Schilling , Illinois , Pat Quinn , Robert Dold

You Could Call This the ‘Blagojevich Base’


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At least one Illinois ballot-distribution operation is at peak efficiency:

Meanwhile, the Chicago Board of Elections hand-delivers ballots to inmates in Cook County Jail. The board doesn’t even wait for the inmates to apply — it brings the applications with the ballots! More than 2,600 inmates have cast ballots — strikingly similar to the 2,600 soldiers who will likely not receive a ballot for Tuesday’s election.

They’re second only to the cemeteries.

Tags: Illinois

Another Stimulus, Another Bailout


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Pres. Barack Obama’s plan for yet another round (!) of stimulus spending, this time focused on highway infrastructure work, is, like so many products of this administration, something other than what it seems. What Obama is proposing is another backdoor bailout for spendthrift states, such as his political home state of Illinois, giving them large injections of federal money so that they can redirect spending that would be dedicated to highway projects to other areas—e.g., to the government-employees’ unions that are Obama’s most loyal constituency. Call it “No Blue-State Appropriator or Union Goon Left Behind, Part Whatever.”

The highway system in particular (and the transportation racket more generally) is a source of endless financial shenanigans and a rich seam of political patronage to be mined by Obama’s allies at the state and local levels. The federal highway system is maintained by a combination of federal and state spending (in a few cases, local spending as well) with the bulk of the states’ money coming from gasoline taxes and fees levied on car owners. Illinois, for example, levies a 39-cents-a-gallon tax on gas (the sixth highest in the nation, according to the Tax Foundation), and it also applies its general sales tax (another 6.25 percent) to gas. Once you figure in the total tax burden, government levies are probably a bigger contributor to the price of a gallon of gas in Illinois than is the crude oil from which it is distilled. So, what does Illinois get for its money?

Part of what it gets is the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), one of those wonderfully, comically inept state agencies that does things that make political analysts laugh and taxpayers weep: things like deciding to suddenly stop doing roadwork because they are out of gas money (irony!) or threaten to start leaving roadkill on the highways unless the state gives them another $20 million.

Highway maintenance is important, of course. But that’s not all that IDOT does with its money. For instance, IDOT helps to maintain a vast network of full-employment programs for petty bureaucrats, called “regional planning agencies.” Every region in the state has one, and they are not small: The Chicago version lists 94 staffers on its website. Its budget of $16.7 million comes mostly from IDOT ($3.8 million) and the Federal Highway Administration ($11.5 million), with money reshuffled from other government agencies, local levies, and our friends over at the Environmental Protection Agency (no, really!) kicking in another $1 million or so. Nearly a hundred bureaucrats spending state transportation money, FHA money, and EPA schmundo, doing . . . what? Overseeing roadwork? Not exactly.

Because our entire government is turning into a bank, IDOT is in the business of making low-interest loans and grants for business-related projects that it likes under its Economic Development Program (EDP). These are supposed to be transportation-oriented projects, but “economic development” is a famously elastic definition under which to operate.

May I give you a little flavor for how carefully this economic-development business is managed? Here’s an excerpt from the minutes of a recent meeting of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, or CMAP. Mr. Blankenhorn is CMAP’s executive director, Ms. Powell its chairman:

Mr. Blankenhorn said IDOT’s FY2010-11 budget includes $5 million to fund Metropolitan Planning Organizations statewide, with CMAP due to receive $3.5 million of that. He said the drawback is that all the money is supposed to be used for transportation planning, and while some of CMAP’s programs, such as community and economic development, can be tied in, most cannot. He said IDOT has promised to be flexible in what spending it will allow, but it’s really up to the General Assembly to provide funding for an agency it created to do more than transportation planning. He urged CAC members to mention the need for funding other areas if they meet with their legislators or people in leadership roles at other state agencies. Mr. Mellis asked if this means CMAP is fully funded for next year. Mr. Blankenhorn said the funding is buried in IDOT’s budget, but it’s in there. Ms. Powell said CMAP is technically not fully funded if it has programs it can’t pay for. Mr. Blankenhorn agreed and said he will no longer use the term‚ fully funded.

Buried in its budget, but they’ll be flexible! Sweet.

So, what does CMAP spend money on? Personnel, mostly — more than half of its budget goes to salaries and compensation: Just over $9.3 million is budgeted for FY2011, or about $100,000 for each of the 94 staffers listed. (I’m looking to see how lavishly compensated the top staffers are and will update you when I get the information.) If you start pumping billions of dollars into bridges and highway resurfacing, you free up a lot of money for the CMAPs and such of the world. But given the sorry record of previous “shovel ready” stimulus programs, don’t be surprised if the bridge-and-blacktop stuff is skipped altogether and the money goes straight into “community development” projects.

This is the sort of horsepucky upon which President Obama proposes to lavish another $50 billion. Stop him.

Kevin D. Williamson is deputy managing editor of National Review.

Tags: Bailouts , Debt , Deficits , Democrats , Despair , Doom , Fiscal Armageddon , Illinois , Obama , Stimulus

Public-Pension Criminals


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So now that the state of New Jersey has been charged by the SEC with lying to bond investors about the (desiccated, horrific, probably insolvent) state of its pension funds, the guessing game begins: Who is next? Exchequer readers will not be surprised to learn that Illinois, the place where Barack Obama developed his famous financial acumen, is on the list of potential targets.

When Illinois passed its pension “reform” law a few months ago, it decided it could skip an additional $300 million in pension contributions this year, and many millions more in the future. This, for a pension system that already is less than half funded. The New York Times asked a few actuaries about that decision, and the bean-counters are crying foul:

Paradoxically, even though the state will make smaller contributions, the report forecasts that Illinois will get its pension funds back on track to a respectable 90 percent funding level by 2045. It projects that costs will increase slowly and an economic recovery will make cash available for the state to make the contributions it has failed to do in the past.

Whether that is even possible is contested by some actuaries who note that its family of pension funds is now only 39 percent funded. (If a company let its pension fund dwindle to that level, the federal government would probably step in, but federal officials have no authority to seize state pension funds.)

Some actuaries who have reviewed the state’s plans said that shrinking contributions would make the pension funds shakier, not stronger.

Indeed, one of them, Jeremy Gold, called Illinois’s plan “irresponsible” and said it could drive the pension funds to the brink.

Further, Mr. Gold pointed out that Illinois’s official disclosures said that its pension calculations used an actuarial method known as “projected unit credit,” but that the pension reform report used another method, which had not been approved for disclosure.

“According to Illinois statute, the prescribed contributions are determined under a method that may not be in compliance with the pertinent actuarial standards of practice,” Mr. Gold said.

The Wall Street Journal has more on state pension shenanigans here.

Hey, taxpayer: How’s your retirement fund looking these days? Anything left to put in it after the state-workers’ unions are done with you? Heck, you’re probably the kind of sucker who pays his mortgage with his own money.

Tags: Angst , Debt , Deficits , Despair , Fiscal Armageddon , General Shenanigans , Illinois , New Jersey , Pensions

Illinois Fiscal Meltdown: A Continuing Series


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The Land of Lincoln (or, if you prefer, the Origin of Obama) is going broke, in a big, big way, as I have noted earlier. The main reason is it going broke is because its public-sector caste is robbing the rest of the state blind.

Have the taxpayers finally had enough? Is nearly a half-million dollars a year for a suburban Chicago parks director too much?

Dozens of Highland Park residents confronted their Park District commissioners Thursday night, demanding that they resign for approving a series of exorbitant bonuses, salary increases and pension boosting payouts to top district executives between 2005 and 2008.

. . . former executive director Ralph Volpe, finance director Kenneth Swan and facilities director David Harris were awarded bonuses that totaled $700,000 during a four-year span.

Additional salary increases during that time have or will provide the three executives with pensions that rival or surpass their total salaries to run the district in 2005. By 2008, Volpe’s total compensation topped $435,000.

Swan’s salary, which was $124,908 in 2005, spiked to $218,372 in 2008. Harris’ pay jumped from $135,403 to $339,302 during that time.

Even though Harris resigned in 2008, Park District officials confirmed that he was paid the remaining $185,120 left on his three-year contract. The district also gave him a sport utility vehicle while his compensation without the SUV in 2008 still totaled $339,302 for eight months on the job, officials said.

As Derb says: We’re in the wrong business. Get a government job.

Highland Park has 34,000 residents. Its park system is not exactly monumental. Get this: By way of comparison, the head of the Central Park Conservancy in New York City earns only  (only!) $364,000 — and the conservancy itself raises most of the park’s $25 million annual budget. New York is not exactly famous for the austerity of its public institutions. That Central Park boss must feel like he’s getting the short end compared to that Highland Park parks tycoon.

Tags: Angst , Despair , Fiscal Armageddon , General Shenanigans , Illinois , Obama , Rip-Offs

An Obama Endorsement Hurts Candidates . . . in Illinois.


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I doubt you’ll read anything more surprising today:

Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.

40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.

The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.

We’re hearing a lot of talk about Obama being a one-term president, his presidency is over, etcetera, etcetera. Most of this is premature. But if Obama has become a political liability in Illinois . . . well, he’s really in the depths, and it’s quite possible he’ll never recover.

Tags: Barack Obama , Illinois

The Next Bubble: Municipal Bonds?


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An interesting thing happened on the way to the bond market: As I mentioned earlier, the state of Illinois went to market with $900 million in “Build America Bonds,” which are federally subsidized debt instruments intended to be used for infrastructure projects — building bridges, blacktopping roads, and the like. Which is to say, right in the middle of a fiscal meltdown, Illinois is launching a major construction campaign — basically, it’s a make-work jobs project, a chance to get a piece of all the money that the stimulus bill has left on the table and put it in the hands of politically connected union bosses. Thanks to Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid, you and I will be covering a 35 percent federal tax credit for investors in those bonds. (Most of the investors, that is, but not all — more on that development in a second.)

Illinois, already sitting on top of $5 billion in unpaid bills and an imploding pension system, is borrowing money everywhere it can, having already tapped into the bond markets three times in recent years just to cover its unfunded retirement obligations for state employees. (Illinois state-government pension? You should have a retirement so fat.) So the chance to go even deeper into debt, with a federal subsidy to sweeten the deal, was irresistible.

Strangely, the market went crazy for those Build Americas. Illinois is already paying a premium in the debt markets; its credit was downgraded in June and its finances are just abject. But the yield demanded on those Build Americas came in 15 basis points lower than expected, meaning Illinois will pay a little less interest on that $900 million bond obligation. Why did the markets cut Illinois a break? Did they forget the Land of Lincoln is the land of Obama, Blago, and George Ryan? That it has the worst credit rating of any state in the Union? That it’s currently considered a greater default risk than Iceland and that it’s only one spot behind Iraq in the default-risk ratings? (And only three behind Pakistan!) What gives?

The most obvious explanation is that the yield on the Build Americas is nearly 7 percent, and there’s not much out there paying 7 percent right now. Investors also get a 35 percent federal tax credit on those returns, so the real rate is even higher. [See correction below.] But what about the risk? My own suspicion is that, even though the law explicitly says otherwise, there is some suspicion on the part of investors that the Obama administration would, in a crunch, stand behind those Build Americas — especially from a big state like California or from a politically sensitive state like the president’s home turf of Illinois.

Addison Wiggin has an interesting observation: 29 percent of the bids for those Build Americas came in from overseas, where investors don’t even enjoy the tax subsidy. They’re just looking for a yield and not paying much attention to the risk. Investors are liking governments: Capital inflows into municipal bonds are way up — $2.7 billion this week vs. $676 million last week, with similarly strong increases in the four-week rolling average — and junk-rated municipal bonds are popular, too. Wiggin sees a bubble and reports:

Allstate (perhaps not ironically headquartered in Illinois) has trimmed its muni holdings by 13% over the last three quarters. An insurance giant holding $20 billion in munis is seeing the same subprime-style risks we outlined in the last issue of Apogee Advisory:

  • Widespread investor acceptance
  • Complicated derivatives
  • Intense incentive for banks to make deals
  • Boneheaded assumptions of endless return on investment
  • Loads of underqualified borrowers
  • Stunning amounts of leverage and debt
  • Social and political pressure to grow at all costs

The multi-trillion-dollar muni market remains loosely regulated, and despite high-profile mishaps in the subprime market, municipal bonds still carry overstated credit ratings from Wall Street’s finest firms.

The latest stimulus under consideration, Stimulus V, is a state-and-local bailout in disguise. If Illinois, California, and the others keep borrowing like this, they won’t even be able to disguise the coming bailout when the municipal-bond bubble bursts.

I wonder, Where will the money come from?

STIMULUS SPENDING UPDATE: $50,000 in stimulus dollars spent to put on a stage version of Gertrude Stein’s novella Brewsie and Willie. Taking the stimulus to the theater? And nothing for the critics?

UPDATED: Reader Prayin’ for Reagan (nice name)  sends in a correction, which I’m still trying to confirm. In short: There are two kinds of Build America bonds: one in which the 35 percent interest subsidy is paid directly to the bond issuers, and another in which the subsidy is passed on to the bond investors in the form of a tax credit. Either way, the investors receive a higher real yield and the issuers get the benefit of a federal subsidy to offset their risk. I thought Illinois was issuing tax-credit bonds, PfR says I’m wrong. Am checking out now, will update.

UPDATED AGAIN: Prayin’ for Reagan is indeed correct, and I am wrong.

– Kevin D. Williamson is deputy managing editor of National Review.

Tags: Barack Obama , Debt , Deficits , financial Armageddon , Illinois , Municipal Bonds , sovereign credit

I’m Not Saying Running Against Phil Hare Is Like Playing the Rams at Home


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In yesterday’s rankings, the one that has generated the most skepticism is putting Rep. Phil Hare of Illinois in the “Blue/As Difficult as Beating the St. Louis Rams” category. As one media guy who watches Congress closely put it:

You have Phil Hare in the easiest to beat bunch. He seems more like Leans Democrat to me — equivalent to your Orange/Eagles group. This is a district that was carried not just by Obama, but by Kerry and Gore. In 2008, Republicans couldn’t even be bothered to contest Hare, and he got 57 percent the last time they did. He’s done a couple stupid things lately — ‘I don’t care about the constitution’ and not releasing an internal poll — but this one seems to be a much harder take-away than some others.

All true, but I figure the “I don’t care about the Constitution” makes for one wicked attack ad, and that internal poll must have shown something pretty ominous, or else he would have released it. (Think about it, even a 55-45 split in his favor would be acceptable to release.)

Here’s Hare to the Wall Street Journal at the end of last month, right before President Obama visited the district:

In Illinois, Rep. Phil Hare, the Democrat who represents Quincy, said he needed the president to make the case that the economy was improving, and that his programs, especially the economic stimulus, have worked. “I’ve had a death threat. I had a rock thrown through the window of a leased vehicle. It’s tough out there,” Mr. Hare said.

I’m also wondering about coattails in Illinois; it looks like the Democrats have two awful top-of-the-ticket names in Illinois. Neither Alexi Giannoulias nor Pat Quinn are leading the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, and neither Democrat has led a poll since March. The last five percentage totals for Quinn, the incumbent: 36, 38, 38, 33, 37. Those are Corzine-esque numbers.

Tags: Alexi Giannoulis , Bill Brady , Bobby Schilling , Illinois , Mark Kirk , Pat Quinn , Phil Hare


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