Tags: Indiana

Romney Narrowly Holding Bellwether Ohio County, N.H. Towns


Credit Suffolk for doing some of the most interesting polling of this cycle. Rather than toss another statewide poll onto the pile, they took a detailed look at one bellwether county in Ohio and two bellwether towns in New Hampshire. The verdict? Good news for Romney, but not much room for comfort:

In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.

“What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote.”

Meanwhile, over in the Granite State:

Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

At the link they provide the history of the county and towns and how they compare statewide.

Of course, any trend may be broken. Vigo County, Indiana, is a county that has voted for the winner in every election since 1956 and is being mentioned as a bellwether again this cycle — except the Obama campaign hasn’t really contested Indiana this cycle, and Romney’s expected to win the state by a healthy margin — so perhaps the dynamics in Vigo won’t be quite as representative of the country as a whole this cycle.

One local station did call 100 residents, a quite small sample: “The result: 42 residents planning to vote for President Barack Obama and 48 in favor of Governor Mitt Romney; which matches other polls across the country.”

The web-comic XKCD made a humorous observation about precedents in presidential campaigns.

Tags: Barack Obama , Indiana , Mitt Romney , New Hampshire , Ohio

Indiana Democrat: Fleeing State Is Like Serving in Afghanistan


Via HoosierPundit, a glimpse at the enormous self-regard that fleeing Democratic state lawmakers have for themselves: Indiana Democratic state representative Dave Cheatham explains why he fled across the state line rather than stay in the state capitol and provide a quorum for a labor-reform bill:

CHEATHAM: The thing that sticks in my mind, I guess, more than anything else — and this is something that has happened. My wife teaches first grade. This past week, one of the kids in her class, a little first grader’s dad is getting sent to Afghanistan. And he was really sad. And she said, ‘Eell, you know, your dad is doing something really good. He’s going to a country where people there are trying to take away the freedoms of other people there, keep them from living a good life. So he’s leaving to do something good.’ And one of the little girls in class just on her own — and this has never been talked about in class, because my wife doesn’t do that — said, ‘It’s kind of like Mr. Cheatham, he left to make our schools better.’ And when I heard that, that gave me a reason —” (drowned out by applause.)

Oh, I see. Fleeing the state and refusing to show up for work as a state legislator is just like serving in the U.S. military in Afghanistan! And I guess that would mean Republican state legislators are the Taliban and al-Qaeda in this metaphor.

Perhaps Mr. Cheatham would like to reconsider his remarks.

Tags: Indiana , State Legislatures

Indiana House Republicans Sing About Missing Democratic Lawmakers


From the good folks at, Indiana House Republicans have discovered an innovative tactic to get their Democratic House counterparts to return to their home state: Singing to them.



74 bring them home to the place they belong, Indiana, not Urbana, take them home 74

Pat Bauer, lost his mind, took his caucus, ran across state lines,

Right to work, PLA’s, bunch other stuff, made them run away.

74 bring them home, to the place they belong, Indiana not Urbana take them home 74

School reform, was our plea rather than debate it, they all chose to flee

When they come back, time will tell, if they don’t, they can go to (slap)

74 bring them home to the place they belong, Indiana, not Urbana, take them home 74

Unemployment, (inaudible — I think it’s, “who steps up?”) we got elected, stop acting like you won,

When they show up, you know who, just like Noah’s ark they come back two by two

74 bring them home to the place they belong, Indiana, not Urbana, take them home 74

I expect the response, “Their singing is what drove us away!”

Tags: Indiana

So Far, So Good!


We will need to see some official calls, but so far, so good for Republicans.

Jackie Walorski is ahead by about 4,000 votes in IN-2.

Larry Bucshon is ahead by about 11,000 votes in IN-8.

Todd Young is ahead of Baron Hill by about 10,000 votes in IN-9.

Robert Hurt is ahead of Tom Perriello by about 11,000 votes in VA-5.

Scott Rigell is ahead of Glenn Nye, although there are only 2,000 votes in so far, and Keith Fimian is ahead of Gerry Connolly with even fewer votes in.

Morgan Griffith is ahead of Rick Boucher by about 5,000 votes in VA-9.

It’s possible some of these slip through the GOP’s fingers, but the trend is definitely the Republicans’ friend tonight.


And, of course . . . YES HE HAS!

UPDATE: It would have been nice to pick off one of the two competitive House districts in Kentucky — Andy Barr seemed like precisely the kind of guy you would like to have in Congress. (I’d note I predicted Democrat holds in both.)

Tags: Indiana , Virginia

Indiana’s Turnout Is Up . . . Which Is How It Should Be, Really


Early voting turnout in Indiana is higher than 2006, but I would more or less expect that with a good, competitive three-way race in Indiana’s Senate primary:

Early voting numbers surged in the weekend leading up to the Tuesday Indiana primary, leaving absentee participation up 30 percent from the 2006 midyear election.

Indiana Secretary of State spokesman Jim Gavin said about 92,000 people requested mail-in ballots or voted early in-person by Monday morning.

Back in 2006, there was no challenger to Sen. Richard Lugar, and no particularly close House primaries.

Tags: Indiana , Richard Lugar

So Will the DCCC Send This Guy Money if He’s Tea Party–Endorsed?


State representative Trent Van Haaften, the Indiana Democrat running to fill the shoes of U.S. Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth,  met with Tea Party activists, hoping “to explore the possibility of the movement supporting the Democrat for Congress in November.”

Tags: Indiana , Tea Parties

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