The Quinnipiac poll is not full of sunshine for President Obama this morning:
Despite passage of his signature health reform bill, President Barack Obama still gets a split 45 – 46 percent approval from American voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, compared to a negative 46 – 49 percent approval in a survey concluded Sunday before the House of Representatives voted on the health care bill. These are President Obama’s worst grades so far, tying his 45 – 46 percent approval February 11.
American voters mostly disapprove of the health care reform 49 – 40 percent, compared to 54 – 36 percent before the vote . . .
By a 38 – 25 percent margin, voters are less likely to vote for House members who voted for the health care bill, with 34 percent who say the health care vote won’t affect their decision.
By a 33 – 27 percent margin, voters are more likely to vote for House members who voted against the health care bill, with 35 percent who say the health care vote won’t affect their decision.
“The first read from the voters is that they are more inclined to punish those lawmakers who voted for the health care overhaul than reward them,” Brown said. “This is a key question. Whether and how these numbers change in the next seven months will tell us whether, in fact, this will be the kind of November Republicans are hungering for and Democrats are dreading.”
Could these numbers change? Sure. But my guess is, people will have to feel and experience tangible improvements in the way they get health care between now and November.
The NRCC has put the spotlight on who they call “The Flip-Flop Five“ – Democrats who voted “no” in the fall and voted “yes” on the final bill: John Boccieri of Ohio, Allen Boyd of Florida, Suzanne Kosmas of Florida, Betsy Markey of Colorado, and Scott Murphy of New York.
The GOP field against the pair in Florida is messier: Seven Republicans are running in Boyd’s district and eleven Republicans are competing for the chance to knock off Kosmas.
Markey is likely to face one of two excellent Republicans: state representative Cory Gardner or state Board of Regents chair Tom Lucero.
In New York, Murphy is likely to face either Chris Gibson or Patrick Ziegler.
Over the course of his 24 year Army career Chris rose to the rank of Colonel and deployed 7 times; including 4 combat tours to Iraq, and separate deployments to Kosovo, the Southwestern US for a counter-drug operation, and most recently just prior to his retirement to Haiti where he commanded the 82nd Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team during the opening month of that humanitarian relief operation.
Ziegler is a former college financial-aid official, state coordinator for Huck PAC, and a committeeman with the Ballston Republican party.
More Utah caucus meeting reports, where a revolt against incumbent Republican senator Bob Bennett appears to be in full swing:
I attended our caucus meeting in Spanish Fork. This is a fairly conservative area (okay, very conservative area where the Constitution Party and American Party have lots of supporters). We are in Chaffetz ® third district, and aside from his lack of understanding the military and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, there is no opposition to him. As for Bob Bennett, the one man who had been a state rep for 18 of the last twenty years did the standard song and dance of “we need to listen to all of the candidates and be open-minded.” I made a point that we knew where Bob Bennett was coming from already. The first state delegate elected of the two brought up a Bennett quote about the Constitution being out of date. She easily won on the second ballot, 38 of 55. I won the second spot on the second go ballot for that one 33 of 55 (I’m not as photogenic). Mr. Open Minded 18 years experience received no more than 10 votes on any ballot, even though the bottom vote getter is dropped for the next round. Bob is in trouble in Utah County.
And elsewhere in the state:
I live in a voting precinct on the east side of Provo. It may one of the most Republican precincts in the country. A record 140 people attended our caucus and elected me and two other Mike Lee supporters as delegates to the state convention. After the voting was finished, people wanted a straw poll taken by the raise of hand. Of the 140, only four supported the three-term incumbent Bob Bennett and most supported Mike Lee.
After the straw poll, a BYU philosophy professor said the staunch opposition to Bennett demonstrated just how perilous the times are in which we live.
Jim, there is a Mormon tradition about the U.S. Constitution that dates back to the 19th Century when some Church leaders said there may come a time when the U.S. Constitution would hang by a thread and the members of the Church would step forward to help save it. The phrase “hanging by a thread” was repeated many times by many different speakers at the caucus yesterday.
Mike is appealing because he is a constitutional scholar. He was legal counsel to Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, He clerked for Justice Samuel Alito. His father was Rex Lee, Dean of the BYU Law School, President of BYU, and Reagan’s Solicitor General.
At lunch a few months ago, Mike told me he wants to get up every morning as a U.S. Senator with this question on his mind? “How can I defend the Constitution today?”
If Mike wins, it will be a shot heard ‘round the nation and the world. People will say that Utah has elected a U.S. Senator who is willing to do everything in his power every day to defend the Constitution. Mike’s a brilliant and vigorous young man. He’ll devote his vast knowledge and energies to fight for our freedom.
I’ve contacted friends and relatives who attended 15 other caucuses last evening. Not one person has told me that a delegate was elected who openly advocated Bennett.
Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak isn’t doomed, but his defeat has gone from a near-impossibility to a distinct possibility. Over on the home page, I take a look at Michigan’s 1st Congressional District, and the candidates on both sides of the aisle seeking to knock off the nine-term incumbent.
UPDATE: I see CNN’s Dan Gilgoff writes, “neither his Democratic nor Republican challengers stand much chance of unseating him in Michigan, political experts said.”
Of course, he also writes, “He faces light general election opposition — the sole Republican candidate challenging Stupak lost her primary in 2008 — though others may still enter the race.” Er, there are currently four Republicans who have declared their candidacies against Stupak.
What got into the Boston Herald? Their article headline: “Republicans Feeling Blue As Scott Brown Win Backfires.”
They base this on a gloating comment from state Democratic Party chairman John Walsh. Hey, laugh it up, fuzzball, you’re the first Massachusetts state party chair to lose anything in that neck of the woods in a generation. You’ve become so synonymous with Beantown failure, these days jokes at your expense are coming from Bill Buckner. The Herald also quotes an angry Tea Party activist, but perhaps I repeat myself.
Their front-page headline is, “Where Is He Now?” which would make sense if he had, say, been abducted. But the pretty clear answer is in the Senate, voting against this crap, just like he promised he would. They’re a newspaper, you would think they would know that. What, did Michael Graham take a sick day? Is he not around to straighten out that crew?
When you make a sudden reversal on the abortion issue, as Rep. Bart Stupak just did, you probably ought to expect some passionate responses. The abortion debate makes the Shia-Sunni divide look like the Red Sox and Yankees.
But a death threat seems pretty contradictory to being “pro-life”, and I think it ought to be denounced. I think everyone reasonable would agree that no matter your stance, you don’t deserve death threats.
Markos Moulitsas: “This is what Stupak gets for playing footsies with the Right.”
Notice that in the mindset of the Crist campaign, the New Republic calling Rubio “the Republican Obama” is a good thing, a set of high expectations that Rubio has failed to meet.
Former Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich has decided to make another run for the governor’s office, an informed source tells ABC 7 News. A spokesman for Ehrlich said he could not confirm or deny our source’s information.
Incumbent governor Martin O’Malley is polling ahead of Ehrlich, but it seems safe to say Ehrlich is the only Republican who could make this a competitive race. A Clarus poll from November showed the Democratic governor in some trouble. O’Malley has been a classic, tax-hiking Democratic governor, running a deep-blue state; yet somehow, voters have noticed that one-party rule has yet to bring about paradise.
UPDATE: Not long ago, there was a bit of public controversy about Governor O’Malley visiting troops in Iraq while the state legislature was in session. Ehrlich offered a mild criticism: “Everybody has their own style,” Ehrlich said Saturday on his weekly WBAL show. “I just think governors belong in state capitals in session. That is all.”
I’m not sure I agree, but Maryland Democrats responded to his comment with their traditional good sense and clear-eyed assessment of what our troops on the battlefield really yearn for: “It is a hazardous environment. It can become tedious. It can be monotonous. A lot of anxiety. A lot of uncertainty,” said Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, an Iraq War veteran. “Even for soldiers who are not Marylanders, I bet a lot of them are saying, ‘I wish my governor was coming. Where is my governor?’”
The Republican party of Virginia notes that while Democrats are howling about state attorney general Ken Cuccinelli “wasting” taxpayer money on a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the federal government forcing you to buy health insurance, the cost of filing the suit is $350.
By contrast, Obamacare is slated to cost Virginia $1.1 billion over the next 12 years.
Cuccinelli’s lawsuit could end up to be the biggest money-saver in the state’s history.
The deals included reducing a new excise tax on medical devices from 2.9 percent to 2.3 percent, while applying the tax to more items. A medical industry official said the changes were sought by Reps. Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth of Indiana and Scott Murphy of New York. All three would vote for the health bill.
Hmm. Among the items included on the list:
(b) TAXABLE MEDICAL DEVICE.—For purposes of this section— (1) IN GENERAL.—The term “taxable medical device” means any device (as defined in section 201(h) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act) intended for humans. (2) EXEMPTIONS.—Such term shall not include— (A) eyeglasses, (B) contact lenses, (C) hearing aids, and (D) any other medical device determined by the Secretary to be of a type which is generally purchased by the general public at retail for individual use.
So unless Secretary Sebelius declares otherwise, any medical device is now 2.3 percent more expensive.
Brad Ellsworth: Because the Senate needs the architect of the National Tampon Tax.
Baron Hill: Because your breast pump will help manage our spending crisis.
Scott Murphy: Every time you use a suppository, think of his health-care vote.
Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum led the effort to file the suit that claims Congress doesn’t have the constitutional right to force people to get health coverage. It also says the federal government is violating the Constitution by forcing a mandate on the states without providing resources to pay for it.
“To that I say, ‘Bring it on,’” said White House domestic policy chief Melody Barnes, who cited similar suits filed over Social Security and the Voting Rights Act when those were passed. “If you want to look in the face of a parent whose child now has health care insurance and say we’re repealing that . . . go right ahead.”
Er, except that under SCHIP, every child is already entitled to health-care insurance, provided their parents meet the eligibility requirements. According to this map and chart using American Academy of Pediatrics data, the cutoff income level for a family of four is $33,075 in North Dakota; in New York and New Hampshire it is $88,200. It is $55,125 or more in every state except North Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Oregon, and Alaska.
How many New York families making more than $88,200 in annual income don’t have health insurance and can plausibly claim that they can’t afford it without the health-care bill? I’m not saying that’s wealthy; I’m just wondering at what level of income are we as a society willing to say, “No, it’s not fair for you to expect taxpayers to cover the cost of your children’s health care.”
Oh, by the way, under the health-care bill, insurance companies can still refuse new coverage to children because of a pre-existing medical problem. This is why the public prefers that lawmakers actually carefully read the bills they vote upon.
The Franklin and Marshall poll of Pennsylvanians out this morning shows Republican Pat Toomey leading the incumbent, Sen. Arlen Specter, for the first time in three months, 33 percent to 29 percent. Toomey leads Joe Sestak, 27 percent to 19 percent. “Independents favor Toomey over Specter (32 percent to 17 percent) and over Sestak (35 percent to 5 percent).”
The poll also tells us that Pennsylvanians aren’t paying the least bit of attention to their governor’s race, it seems. Among Republicans, 66 percent don’t have a preference in their primary (state attorney general Tom Corbett leads with 28 percent), and 71 percent of Democrats don’t know who they support; Dan Onorato leads with 11 percent.
I’m not quite sure why F&M has so many more undecided voters across the board compared to other pollsters:
The data included in this release represent the responses of 1119 adult residents of Pennsylvania, including 964 registered adults (483 Democrats, 353 Republicans, 102 registered as Independent/Other, and 26 who refused to identify party). Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted (age, education, race, region, and gender) using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for this survey is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
A reader in Highland, Utah, sends along this local report:
I attended my local Republican caucus last night here in Utah. We are in Utah’s second congressional district currently held by Jim Matheson (D). We had 5 times the turnout of 2008, representing about 18% of all registered Republicans in my precinct. People were very fired-up about the health-care bill and the direction of Congress in general. Also, 17 previously unaffiliated voters became Republicans in order to participate in the caucus. We also collected well over $1000 for our county party. While those seeking election to the state party convention were predictably clear that Matheson has to go, the strongest and most frequently expressed sentiments were for dumping Sen. Bennett. Every state delegate won with a promise to NOT vote for Bennett. We have a few good candidates challenging Sen. Bennett, and former Alito supreme court clerk Mike Lee looks to have the most support at this time. NOT ONE person running for state delegate was willing to acknowledge that they were willing to even consider Bennett at the convention. While my precinct is VERY conservative, I suspect that Sen. Bennett will have a tough time even surviving the convention from what I saw last night and have heard from others around the state.
Republican state legislative campaign committees and state parties have filed a record number of candidates for state legislative seats in key chambers across the United States, according to a study conducted by GOPAC. After a review of filings in 10 key chambers where filing deadlines have closed, Republicans have filed to run for 678 of 812 seats up for election this year – nearly 10 percent more seats than Democratic candidates. Equally impressive, Republican candidates are contesting 289 of a possible 368 state legislative seats currently held by Democratic incumbents who are seeking reelection in 2010 for a challenge rate of 78 percent. Democrats, by contrast, are contesting 172 of a possible 344 seats currently held by Republican incumbents who are seeking reelection in 2010 for a challenge rate of 50 percent.
When I saw “record number of candidates,” I wondered how much the number was being boosted by multiple candidates in GOP primaries; in some House districts, you’ve got small armies of candidates competing for the nomination, with a certain number certain to finish in the low single digits. (The seat of retiring Kansas Democrat Dennis Moore has attracted 10 GOP candidates; in Tennessee, there are eight GOP candidates each in the seats of retiring Democrat Bart Gordon and aspiring Republican governor Zach Wamp.)
What impresses me about this is that it isn’t counting multiple candidates; this is just making sure that as many Democratic incumbents earn it as possible.
GOPAC chairman Frank Donatelli declares:
In state after state, Republicans have the highest number of candidates seeking state Senate and House seats in their history. This is the first step to making significant gains in state legislatures and increasing the number of majorities we have in state Senate and House Chambers. In turn, Republican legislatures across the country, working with conservative Governors, will be in a position to successfully implement common-sense ideas and build a foundation for the Republican Party’s national platform.
And, I note, redistricting. But getting folks to run is indeed only the first step.
Only 13 percent of American voters say they are part of the Tea Party movement, a group that has more women than men; is mainly white and Republican and voted for John McCain, and strongly supports Sarah Palin, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.
While voters say 44 – 39 percent that they will vote for a Republican over a Democratic candidate in this November’s Congressional elections, if there is a Tea Party candidate on the ballot, the Democrat would get 36 percent to the Republican’s 25 percent, with 15 percent for the Tea Party candidate, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.
By a 28 – 23 percent margin, American voters have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party, with 49 percent who say they don’t know enough about the group to form an opinion.
American voter opinion of the Democratic Party is 48 – 33 unfavorable, with opinion of the Republican Party 42 – 33 percent unfavorable.
We know Democrats are not good at introspection – every failure triggers another round of ‘we’re too nice and sophisticated! Our opponents are more ruthless and appeal to the simple-minded electorate!’ – but you would think they might ask themselves a few nagging questions at times like this. Like, why did Obama’s much-touted rhetorical skills fail him from last summer until now? If this is such a good idea, why couldn’t they get the Olympia Snowes and Mike Castles to sign on? Why did they have to twist arms until John Boccieri looked like Stretch Armstrong? And why did 34 House Democrats flee from this legislation in terror like it’s the smoke monster on Lost?
And if this thing continues to poll as divisively as cilantro, is it really such a good idea to go around laughing it up, high-fiving, and acting like this is the All Good Things and No Bad Things Act of 2010? Isn’t that just antagonizing an already fired-up and furious chunk of the electorate?
Matt Continetti, writing at that other conservative magazine: “What I don’t understand is the media compliance in the massive White House spin operation now underway. Yes, the health bill signing is a historic achievement — the realization of a liberal dream that also puts us one step closer to national insolvency. And perhaps it is better for the Democrats to have something to run on in the fall rather than nothing. Even so, reading the accolades, you get the impression that the Democrats have just averted electoral disaster and the Republicans have committed a catastrophic political error in opposing a flawed and expensive big-government bill.”
If everyone in the world subscribed, I wouldn’t have to remind them that it is free every morning.
Rush Holt’s opponent, Scott Sipprelle, is going up on television with an ad that hits the Democratic incumbent for his vote for the health-care bill
There’s no point in denying it; on paper, this is a tough district. But Chris Christie beat Democratic governor Jon Corzine in the Holt district by ten percentage points, 52 percent to 42 percent, and Christie won 34 of the 43 towns in the district.
Chris Christie’s pollster, Adam Geller of National Research, shows that U.S. Rep. Rush Holt’s hard re-elect numbers have gone down. A recent poll shows that 39% of twelfth district voters believe Holt deserves to be re-elected, while 41% believe it is time for a new person. When Geller polled the district in 2004, Holt’s re-elect was at 51% and just 23% wanted a new congressman.
I noticed today that Obama was “underwater” – the percentage disapproving of the job he’s doing was larger than the percentage approving – in Wisconsin.
In 2008, Florida state senator Ted Deutch was graded a 69 out of 100 by the Florida Chamber of Commerce.
You’re probably thinking, “Well, that’s not that bad.” Except that it’s the second-lowest score out of 152 lawmakers in the state house and state senate.
Of course, as you know if you’ve been reading the site today, Ted Deutch is the Democrat running for Congress in Florida’s 19th congressional district. The Republican running for the seat is Ed Lynch; the special election is April 13.
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