The Democrats seem to think that a complicated, bureaucratic government micromanagement of one-sixth of the economy on a party-line vote is small potatoes compared to Rep. Randy Neugebauer calling the bill “a baby-killer.”

If the Democrats pledge electoral consequences, I suspect this will be about as successful as their effort to mobilize against Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina.

Neugebauer represents a district McCain carried 72 percent to 27 percent, and has so far out-raised his Democratic opponent, Andy Wilson, $649,409 to $6,871. (Of Wilson’s total, $370 is from the candidate himself.)

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Democrats have dumped $2 million that could be more wisely spent elsewhere into the campaign of Rob Miller, while Wilson has raised $3.3 million.

Neugebauer offers his thoughts in this video. He says:

I’m never going to quit speaking on behalf of the unborn, and I’m never going to quit speaking on behalf of the people of Texas and the people of the United States of America who find this policy unacceptable . . . I’m going to continue to speak with the same passion I had last night, maybe a little bit different forum, but still with the same intensity.

Which Florida state lawmaker has missed the most legislative committee meetings and special sessions?

Ted Deutch, the Democrat running for Congress in Florida’s 19th congressional district.

But I’m sure he’ll do a much better job representing his constituents at the federal level.

The Republican running for the seat is Ed Lynch; the special election is April 13.

Let’s say you’re one of those Ohio House Democrats who voted for the health-care bill and are taking some heat for it, like John Boccieri or Steve Driehaus or Charlie Wilson or Mary Jo Kilroy. Or, let’s say you’re an Ohio House Democrat who couldn’t vote for it because you’ve already made one supremely unpopular vote for cap-and-trade, like Zach Space.

But you’re not at the top of the ticket this fall. You’ve got Gov. Ted Strickland to carry the Democratic party banner in November, and maybe his campaign effort can help drive turnout in your neck of the woods.

Nah, just kidding. You’re toast.

Despite continuing to be relatively unknown, John Kasich leads Ted Strickland 42-37 in his bid to be the next Governor of Ohio.

50% of voters have no opinion about Kasich and among those who do feelings about him are pretty evenly divided with 25% viewing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Kasich’s advantage likely has a lot more to do with Strickland than it does with himself. The Governor’s popularity continues to decline with only 33% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove.

Strickland’s base is not all that enthused about him with just 53% of Democrats expressing approval of him to 23% who disapprove and 23% with no opinion. Majorities of independents and Republicans disapprove of him by margins of 54/28 and 69/14 respectively . . . Kasich’s lead is due to an overwhelming 47-24 lead with independents. Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere this year, but the margin in Ohio is particularly wide.

As the vice president would say, “This is a big f . . .”

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely voters in Illinois’s 11th congressional district on March 21–22, 2010.

Adam Kinzinger currently leads on the ballot test 44%-38% over Congresswoman Halvorson, with 16% of voters undecided. Among high interest voters (8-10s), Kinzinger’s lead improves to 49%-35%, with 13% undecided.

On the generic Congressional ballot test, the generic Republican candidate enjoys a ten point advantage in the district (43%-33%, with 21% undecided).

Voters in the district are unhappy with the job President Obama is doing, as 45% approve of the job he is doing, and 52% disapprove. Nearly four in ten voters (38%) strongly disapprove of the job the President is doing.

Congresswoman Halvorson’s image stands at 33% favorable/31% unfavorable. Her challenger, Adam Kinzinger is still relatively unknown, with a name ID of 50% and an image of 19% favorable/5% unfavorable.

Congresswoman Halvorson’s re-elect stands at 31% total re-elect to 44% total new person, with 24% of voters saying they do not know if Halvorson deserves to be re-elected. Such a low reelect score shows that Halvorson is in a precarious position for a first term Member of Congress.

Boy, no wonder Halvorson was so intent on making sure the unemployed have health insurance.

Two points: First, this district may not be representative of a lot of other districts, as Adam Kinzinger is probably one of the most appealing House GOP candidates this cycle; second, while Obama carried this district by 8 percentage points in 2008, Bush carried it by the same margin four years earlier. Halvorson was undoubtedly helped by having Obama at the top of the ticket; the 2008 GOP primary winner, Tim Baldermann, suddenly withdrew, leaving the GOP with a backup, first-time candidate.

Barack Obama, speaking at a Democratic presidential debate, February 21, 2008:

We’ve got a philosophical difference, which we’ve debated repeatedly, and that is that Senator Clinton believes the only way to achieve universal health care is to force everybody to purchase it. And my belief is, the reason that people don’t have it is not because they don’t want it but because they can’t afford it.

Today, Obama signed the individual mandate into law.

All statements from Barack Obama come with an expiration date. All of them.

From a reader in Lake Ridge, Virginia: “After your post, I contacted Keith Fimian here in VA-11 in the hopes of knocking off Gerry Connolly. Thanks for the nudge.”

I know I’m supposed to be excited that Democrat Brad Ellsworth is trailing anybody with an “R” after their name in Indiana’s Senate race, but let’s face it: Ellsworth conceded this race the moment he voted for the health-care bill: “Just 35% of Indiana voters favor the plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats, while 63% oppose it.”

How gutsy is New Jersey governor Chris Christie? He’s signing bills that reduce the benefits to public-sector pensions. And he’s not hiding; he’s holding big ceremonies and posting the whole thing on YouTube.

Christie:

On Senate Bill 2, over the next 15 years, $3 billion. On Senate Bill 4, $5 billion dollars over the next 15 years and most immediately about $315 million for the upcoming fiscal year for local governments and school boards. And on Senate Bill 4, capping some of the abuses that have really outraged the public regarding sick leave and other issues that finally we’ll be getting to put a cap on those things that have so angered the public and made them think that government was not really working to their benefit but working for someone else’s.

Fascinating. I asked for a statement from the campaign office of Ted Deutch last Tuesday and Thursday, via e-mail and phone, and never got any reply.

Yet apparently his office sent out a statement via e-mail to selected sources on March 17.

Statement by Senator Ted Deutch

“Iran’s illicit quest for nuclear weapons and her leading sponsorship of worldwide terrorism presents a significant national security threat to the United States, an existential threat to our vital ally Israel, and will lead to a dangerous nuclear arms race in the Middle East if we do not take immediate action to thwart the Iranian nuclear weapons program. 

“The Iranian nuclear weapons program must be our overwhelming focus. The United States and Israel need to be working together today – closer than ever – to successfully confront a threat that looms larger and poses greater danger than any other issue in the Middle East.

“We cannot afford any distractions under these serious circumstances, and every additional day that is spent exchanging recriminations or blame for the unfortunate timing of the announcement during Vice President Biden’s visit to Israel only moves our focus away from the looming Iranian threat. 

“The historic and unbreakable relationship between the United States and Israel is stronger than any diplomatic flap, and with the real challenges we face, it is time to move forward together as essential longtime allies and friends.

“Any perceived daylight between the United States and Israel through the continued public airing of disagreements between these steadfast allies weakens our ability to enact powerful sanctions on Iran.

“I continue to use every means at my disposal to put pressure on Iran and those corporations that support her nuclear program. My legislation will forbid Florida from entering into any contract with corporations that do business with the Iranian regime. I commend Congress for passing tough and effective sanctions through the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act and the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, and I urge Congress and the Obama Administration to swiftly enact these policies into law, and to end U.S. government contracts with corporations doing business in Iran.”

Deutch’s legislation was introduced prior to a recent New York Times report detailing how the federal government has awarded billions to companies who do business in Iran. Many of these contracts directly violate U.S. law. 

In addition, last week Senator Deutch sent a letter last week to Governor Charlie Crist urging support for his legislation and following up on Senator Deutch’s previous efforts to halt Vitol, formerly Iran’s largest supplier of refined petroleum, from using public funds to open a terminal at Florida’s Port Canaveral.  In addition, Senator Deutch also sent a letter to Ash Williams, the Executive Director of the State Board of Administration, strongly urging him to deliver a terror-free retirement option for Florida workers as required by legislation earlier passed by Senator Deutch. 

Senator Deutch is the Democratic Nominee for Congress in the April 13th special election to replace retired Rep. Robert Wexler. For more information please visit www.tedforcongress.com. 

Deutch has been a leading national figure on national security issues relating to the Iranian nuclear program. Deutch wrote and passed the first in the nation legislation that mandated that the retirement funds of Florida’s workers do not support Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Senator Deutch has helped dozens of states and municipalities to pass similar terror-free laws and has testified in Congress regarding his efforts.

So he just doesn’t like me, apparently.

I know that in recent years, Jerry Brown has taken some idiosyncratic stances that diverge from his “Governor Moonbeam” days — most prominently, inviting the U.S. Marine Corps to stage war games at a defunct Oakland army base and filing a friend-of-the-court brief “asking that Chicago’s gun ban be overturned – arguing that if the court doesn’t act, ‘California citizens could be deprived of the constitutional right to possess handguns in their homes.’”

But I hear about the possibility – not probability – that he could be back as a rerun as the state’s next governor and I’m left shaking my head. The state’s a disaster area; there just isn’t any money left. The state legislature appears to consist mostly of demonic toddlers. Employers are running away from the state faster than sponsors are running away from Tiger Woods. The real-estate market is worse than Pompeii. The state is resembling Tupac’s “California Love” video way ahead of schedule. (Do I even need to include the content warning on that link?)

After two years of hearing that 72-year-old John McCain was too old to be president, the state is supposed to put the ball in the hands of a 71-year-old who’s been in state government since 1971, who’s emphasizing that “Sacramento isn’t working,” and who laments the “breakdown in Sacramento”? (Sir, if runaway partisanship is destroying the state government’s ability to solve problems, I’d begin by blaming the state attorney general who took his own state’s voters to court on Proposition 8.)

Anyway, as noted, if elected, this will be the second time around for Brown, who was governor during California’s golden years of 1975 to 1982, the good old days of rising crime, disco, 10 percent unemployment, and Squeaky Fromme’s assassination attempt. I was surprised to learn that his gubernatorial records are sealed until 2038.

This prompts the folks at the Republican Governors Association to start a petition and ask, “What has Brown done to you?“

Ted Deutch, the Democrat running for Congress in Florida’s 19th congressional district, just voted against a bill that declares that anyone who causes the end of a woman’s pregnancy at any stage by death or injury to the mother would be charged with the death of the unborn child. Under current state law, an offender can only be prosecuted for the death of a fetus if the fetus could live outside of the mother’s womb.

The shift in law, of course, is modeled after the federal Unborn Victims of Violence Act of 2004.

Deutch’s opposition stems from concern “that doctors could potentially be prosecuted for performing an abortion.”

Ted Deutch, the Democrat running for Congress in Florida’s 19th congressional district, just voted against a bill that would ban adoption agencies from requiring prospective parents to disclose whether they have a firearm.

To every other member of the Florida state senate except one, it seemed clear that an adoption agency should not look into a person’s exercise of their constitutionally protected Second Amendment rights as part of determining whether someone would make a good parent.

UPDATE: This measure passed the Florida State House, 112-0, and then passed the Senate 38-2. Yeah, Florida’s considering sending one of those two to Congress.

Most of the good stuff in the Morning Jolt is in the e-mail. But here’s the daily taste:

Meanwhile, the approval ratings of Pelosi and Reid are on par with syphilis, as they should be, but I’m struck by how many Americans have no opinion: 11 percent approve of Pelosi, and 8 percent approve of Reid, but 36 percent haven’t heard enough about Pelosi to have an opinion, and 50 percent haven’t heard enough about Reid to have an opinion. For some reason, “undecided” is a separate option on CBS News’ poll, so the unfavorable rating for Pelosi is 37 percent and Reid is 23 percent.  That’s an appropriate 3-to-1 ratio (considering that there’s no separate option for, “please deport them to a country we don’t like”) but I wonder what these two have to do to really get the public riled.

Subscribe, because it’s free, and because I have to write it.

The next special election in the House is on April 13 in Florida’s 19th congressional district. I’ll have more on this throughout the day, but over on the home page, I note that the Democratic candidate is revealing himself to be one of those guys who talk a lot about how much they support Israel . . . but who suddenly go silent once there’s even a smidgen of political risk:

The district — encompassing a narrow, non-coastal strip of Palm Beach and Broward counties — has one of the most heavily Jewish voting populations in the country, and so naturally, the Democrat who seeks to be Wexler’s successor, state senator Ted Deutch, heavily emphasizes his pro-Israel bona fides. On his campaign website, Deutch emphasizes ‘security and peace for Israel’ along with the economy, education, and health care. The first line of his biography declares, ‘Senator Ted Deutch is an accomplished legislator who has passed legislation on critical issues benefiting seniors, public education, national security and victims of the Holocaust.’ He counts as one of his two landmark legislative initiatives in the state legislature a measure to require that state workers’ pension funds be divested from investments in Iran’s oil-and-gas sector…

As of Friday, ten days after the Israeli settlement announcement, Deutch had not put out any statement on developments in U.S.-Israel relations. Neither the candidate nor anyone from his campaign has been quoted in the local or national press about the recent controversy.

Ashley Mushnick, deputy campaign manager for Deutch, confirmed on March 16 that the lawmaker had not issued any statements on developments in the Middle East, but said she would relay National Review’s request for a comment. The campaign did not reply to additional requests.

He’s running for Congress, the biggest U.S-Israeli dispute in a generation breaks out, and suddenly the guy turns into J. D. Salinger. What, is the candidate trapped under something heavy, and unable to come to a phone?

I’m sure someone will call CNN a right-wing polling outfit:

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday, 51 percent of respondents disapprove of Obama’s job performance and 46 percent approve of it.

A longtime reader passing through Pennsylvania offers this intriguing anecdote:

Jim,
 
I was a reader before TKS, when it was still The Kerry Spot, and I am a Morning Jolt reader as well. This is my first comment into you.
 
I travel on business quite a bit — two years ago, I had over 40,000 frequent flyer miles.
 
Anyway, I am in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania today, and eating at the hotel restaurant, I overhear two waitresses talking about the HCR vote. I know Obama did best among college towns, state capitals, and the younger vote. Both waitresses were in their early twenties. Both were very upset, and thought it was horrible that this makes them to work harder to provide health care for people who do not want to work. (their words, not mine) They also hated that this will increase their taxes. They hated all of the games (again their words, the process of moving the bill . . .). [And I suspect] these two waitresses only got their news from the MSM.
 
I went online and saw that Bush won the county in 2004 with 53.9% and that Obama won in 2008 with the exact same percentage, which was just under 1% less than he won the state in 2008. I found it very interesting that even though these young employees will not have their taxes rise now (they do not earn over 250k as waitresses, obviously) They were smart enough to understand that they want to earn that in their future careers and that this is horrible. Also, and in all my travels I hear this constantly, they stated that they will not see a dime from Social Security. No matter how conservative or liberal the person I talk to, I have yet to speak with someone under 30 years old, who believes they will see a dime from Social Security when they retire.
 
More proof that the Tea Parties are only just starting up.
 
Keep up the great reporting . . .

I should have realized the list below was a good way of generating a lot of “what about my guy?” inquiries. Obviously, flipping a seat requires a few ingredients: a strong challenging candidate, a mobilized grassroots, a couple of gaffes or unpopular stands on the part of the incumbent, strong or weak top-of-the-ticket candidates, sufficient fundraising, at least somewhat favorable demographics in the district, and a little bit of luck.

In the end, you can help your guy check some of those boxes.

A lot of Obamacare opponents are out looking for money this morning. And if you’re inclined, give.

But I would say that if last night’s vote has you fighting mad, find a campaign of a guy or gal who opposed this, call ‘em up, and volunteer. Writing a check or pressing a button to send funds can be satisfying, but there’s a lot of energy out there.

“But Jim, there’s no competitive race where I live.”

For a few folks, yeah. But when I was putting together my Obamacare brackets, I noted that the number of vulnerable Democrats is awfully widely dispersed geographically. I went through the House races and came up with these open seats and plausibly competitive or endangered House Democrats (remember, even if they’ve performed well in the past, this is a Scott Brown electorate):

Carol Shea-Porter, New Hampshire

Paul Hodes’s open seat, New Hampshire

Bill Delahunt’s open seat, Massachusetts

Patrick Kennedy’s open seat, Rhode Island

Michael Arcuri, New York

Scott Murphy, New York

Mike McMahon, New York

Dan Maffei, New York

Tim Bishop, New York

Eric Massa’s open seat, New York

John Adler, New Jersey

Frank Kratovil, Maryland

Mike Castle’s open seat, Delaware

Glenn Nye, Virginia

Rick Boucher, Virginia

Gerry Connolly, Virginia

Tom Perriello, Virginia

Allan Mollohan, West Virginia

Nick Rahall, West Virginia

Lincoln Davis, Tennessee

John Tanner’s open seat, Tennessee

Bart Gordon’s open seat, Tennessee

Jason Altmire, Pennsylvania

Paul Kanjorski, Pennsylvania

Chris Carney, Pennsylvania

Kathy Dahlkemper, Pennsylvania

Joe Sestak’s open seat, Pennsylvania

Patrick Murphy, Pennsylvania

Dina Titus, Nevada

Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona

Gabby Giffords, Arizona

Harry Mitchell, Arizona

Harry Teague, New Mexico

Martin Heinrich, New Mexico

Kurt Schrader, Oregon

Brian Baird’s open seat, Washington

Jim Matheson, Utah

Betsey Markey, Colorado

Walt Minnick, Idaho

Baron Hill, Indiana

Brad Ellsworth’s open seat, Indiana

Bill Foster, Illinois

Debbie Halvorson, Illinois

Phil Hare, Illinois

Leonard Boswell, Iowa

Steve Kagen, Wisconsin

Ron Kind, Wisconsin

Dave Obey, Wisconsin

John Boccieri, Ohio

Zach Space, Ohio

Charlie Wilson, Ohio

Mary Jo Kilroy, Ohio

Steve Dreihaus, Ohio

Mark Schauer, Michigan

Gary Peters, Michigan

Ike Skelton, Missouri

Earl Pomeroy, North Dakota

Suzanne Kosmas, Florida

Allen Boyd, Florida

Ron Klein, Florida

Chet Edwards, Texas

Mike Ross, Arkansas

Marion Berry’s open seat, Arkansas

Vic Snyder’s open seat, Arkansas

Ben Chandler, Kentucky

John Spratt, South Carolina

Gene Taylor, Mississippi

Travis Childers, Mississippi

Bobby Bright, Alabama

John Barrow, Georgia

Jim Marshall, Georgia

Dan Boren, Oklahoma

Larry Kissell, North Carolina

Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, South Dakota

Dennis Moore’s open seat, Kansas

Charlie Melancon’s open seat, Louisiana

(This list is not exhaustive. For example, North Carolina’s Heath Shuler won healthily in 2008 and faces underfunded challengers, but maybe his heavily Republican district gets fed up with their guy voting for cap-and-trade and Pelosi.)

Next month, there’s a special election in Florida’s 19th district (Wexler’s old district), as well as special elections in Hawaii’s 1st district and Pennsylvania’s 12th district (Murtha’s old district) in May. That’s more than 80 seats with a shot of a GOP takeover. And this is just the House races; there obviously are a lot of important Senate and gubernatorial races on the ballot, too.

UPDATE: A couple of readers nominate a few more: Jim Himes and Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Jerry McNerney of California, Van Tran looks set to give Loretta Sanchez of California the toughest race of her career . . .

Since debuting this morning, the RNC’s “Fire Nancy Pelosi” site has raised $511,903.

My comment in the Morning Jolt that “one of the key lessons of this is that Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Mike Castle, and Mark Kirk will come through for you when Bart Gordon won’t” is turning some heads.

I get the feeling that I’m a little more tolerant of those often derided as “RINOs”  than your average guy on the right, but a lot of my easygoing acceptance is directly proportional to the political character of the district or state that they represent. For example, I’m just not convinced that Maine will elect a Republican more consistently conservative than Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins. I knew Scott Brown was going to leave some of us disappointed from time to time. I know Mike Castle’s going to frustrate me if he becomes a senator, but he’s probably as good as it’s going to get out of Delaware.

But in the end, even the squishiest Republican candidate chooses to be a Republican, with all of its attendant inherent hostility from much of the mainstream press, demonization by Hollywood, reflexive accusations of racism, etc. That suggests at least a little spine, or at least a certain willingness to espouse a view because of some deeply held principle independent of public opinion.

Meanwhile, all but the most wildly rebellious Democrats will let down a conservative pretty frequently. Only three House Democrats voted against the health-care bill, cap-and-trade, and the stimulus: Bobby Bright of Alabama, Walt Minnick of Idaho, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi. In other words, every other self-proclaimed conservative Democrat voted for at least one piece of legislation that conservatives loathed. John Barrow of Georgia (lifetime ACU rating 36.2) voted for the stimulus. Heath Shuler (lifetime ACU rating 30.6) voted for cap-and-trade. Joe Donnelly of Indiana (lifetime ACU rating 32) signed on for health care.

When discussing the gun issue last week, I noted:

For even the best, most pro–Second Amendment House Democrat, the first vote they cast in the House is to make Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House, ensuring the floor schedule is controlled by a woman who is scored an “F” by the organization. And her speakership ensures that F-rated John Conyers of Michigan chairs the Judiciary Committee, and that liberals, often but not always anti-gun, control the important committees.

Meanwhile, if that A-rated House Democrat were beaten by some squishy C-or B-rated Republican, his first vote be would make A-rated John Boehner (or perhaps some other Republican) the speaker.

This goes well beyond the gun issue, obviously. Heath Shuler, John Barrow, Dan Boren, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, and their ilk may completely disagree with the way Pelosi shaped the health-care bill and this insane plan to use the Slaughter Rule. But all of them were key to putting Pelosi in position to do this.

Broaden it beyond the gun issue and you have our situation. (Remember, every pro-life Democrat in the House voted to make Pelosi, usually scored 100 by NARAL year after year, the speaker.) The Democratic majorities in Congress were built on first-time candidates in 2006 and 2008 who had no voting record, who touted how conservative they were in right-leaning districts in places like Arizona and Indiana and Mexico and North Carolina and Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The health-care vote reconfirms that conservative Democrats, much like the Loch Ness Monster, are widely discussed but rarely leave evidence of their existence. In the end, those who are touted as being “centrist” or “conservative” are still Democrats, who are receptive when Pelosi, Reid, or Obama come calling, asking for a vote that their constituents vociferously oppose.