Tags: Kentucky

Get Ready for a Rough-and-Tumble GOP Primary in Kentucky


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Moments before Lousiville businesman Matt Bevin announced he was running for Senate in Kentucky, challenging incumbent Mitch McConnell, McConnell’s press team spotlights a Louisville Tea Party board member resigning from his post in a show of support for McConnell: “Scott Reed was a founding board member of the Louisville Tea Party in 2008 yet resigned from his post as Vice-President to run for state representative in 2012.  Reed said he resigned from his current board post about one month ago when Louisville Tea Party President Sarah Durand decided to back Bevin’s Republican Primary campaign and become Bevin’s spokeswoman.”

Katrina Trinko previewed the Bevin-McConnell fight; expect McConnell to go after Bevin’s business record and contend he took a bailout from the state of Connecticut; Bevin will argue McConnell has forgotten his conservative roots and become the face of Republican compromise in Washington.

 

Tags: Mitch McConnell , Matt Bevin , Kentucky

Might Want to Check Kentucky Eavesdropping Law, Fellas.


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Apparently they really meant this:

Much more important than, say, obeying Kentucky law. You see, Kentucky requires at least one party in a conversation to consent to the recording of the conversation.

“Unless otherwise provided by law, the authorized maximum terms of imprisonment for a Class D felony is not less than one (1) year nor more than five (5) years.”

A local Democrat has told the press that the organization bragged about that Class D felony.

secret recording of a campaign strategy session between U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell and his advisors was taped by leaders of the Progress Kentucky super PAC, says a longtime local Democratic operative.

Mother Jones Magazine released the tape this week. The meeting itself took place on Feb. 2.

Jacob Conway, who is on the executive committee of the Jefferson County Democratic Party, says that day, Shawn Reilly and Curtis Morrison, who founded and volunteered for Progress Kentucky, respectively, bragged to him about how they recorded the meeting.

I suppose the group could always try to distract us by saying something racist about McConnell’s wife again.

UPDATE: The tapers might be in the clear; it may come down to whether the recording device was in the room or outside of it.

In-person conversations: It is a felony to overhear or record, through use of an electronic or mechanical device, an oral communication without the consent of at least one party to that communication. Ky. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 526.020. According to the commentary included with the statute when it was adopted in 1974, a conversation which is loud enough to be heard through the wall or through the heating system without the use of any device is not meant to be protected by the statute, since a person who desires privacy can take the steps necessary to ensure that his conversation cannot be overheard by the ordinary ear. See 1974 Kentucky Crime Commission/Legislative Research Commission Commentary to 1974 c 406, § 227.

From the report above:

Morrison and Reilly did not attend the open house, but they told Conway they arrived later and were able to hear the meeting from the hallway.

Other sources have corroborated this series of events to WFPL. The meeting room door is next to the elevators on that floor. McConnell campaign manager Jesse Benton has told multiple media outlets the door was shut and locked on Feb. 2. But the door has a vent at the bottom and a large gap underneath.

Tags: Kentucky , Mitch McConnell

American Crossroads Salutes Ashley Judd


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American Crossroads engages in a bit of “battlespace preparation” by running a faux ad saluting actress Ashley Judd, who’s rumored to be considering a bid for Senate in Kentucky . . . even though she currently lives in Tennessee.

American Crossroads says the ad is “backed by $10,000 in paid digital advertising, starting today and running two weeks in Kentucky.”

Tags: American Crossroads , Ashley Judd , Kentucky , Mitch McConnell

Do You Like McConnell? Well, Compared to Whom?


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Earlier this month, I scoffed a bit at web ads being run against Senator Mitch McConnell, declaring,

The high-profile grumbling about Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell — seen in a new ad campaign from ForAmerica, a non-profit 501(c)4 run by Brent Bozell — is a lot like the much-discussed, little-impact uprising against John Boehner as speaker of the House. In both cases, the odds of replacing the current Republican leadership would be exponentially more likely if there were a named alternative.

The issue of a lack of named alternative arises again, as the Louisville Courier-Journal writes a breathless story about a poll they commissioned, finding that only 17 percent of registered voters will vote for McConnell no matter who runs against him, 34 percent will vote against McConnell, and for 44 percent, “it depends who is running.”

Well, gee, it kind of matters who the other candidate is, doesn’t it?

The new result suggests there are conservatives out there who might prefer an alternative if they had some other conservative alternative in the primary (13 percent of self-identified conservatives say they are “definitely” voting against McConnell). Of course, there are some liberals out there who will prefer the Democratic alternative (although only 56 percent of self-identified liberals say they’re definitely voting against McConnell!).

The problem is that the more conservative folks and the Democrats who are currently McConnell foes have diametrically opposed notions of what a “better alternative” is. If McConnell wins his primary, most of those conservatives will prefer him to the more liberal alternative and “come home”; if he doesn’t win his primary, the anti-McConnell animus in the electorate is moot.

The poll is by SurveyUSA . . . which found McConnell’s approval rating at 50 percent at the end of October.

Considering that the paper was willing to commission the poll, one wishes they had bothered polling some of the potential rivals to McConnell, in both a GOP primary and a statewide race.

In fact, the early polling of a hypothetical McConnell–Ashley Judd race would have made for a dramatic story. I wonder why the Courier-Journal chose not to poll on that matchup . . . or whether they did and chose not to publicize the results.

Tags: Erskine Bowles , Kentucky , Mitch McConnell

Other Than That, Obama Had a Great Primary Night


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The midweek edition of the Morning Jolt features the latest sudden lapse from the “new tone” of political civility in South Carolina, the latest from Wisconsin, and then last night’s… somewhat surprising primary results:

Happy Arkansas and Kentucky Primary Night, Mr. President!

After Hillary Clinton thrashed Barack Obama in the West Virginia primary, I wrote that Obama would be the first president who would need to appoint an ambassador to that state.

Arkansas and Kentucky aren’t looking like very friendly territory, either.

Four in ten Democratic voters chose someone other than President Obama on Tuesday in primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky.

In Arkansas, John Wolfe — a perennial, long-shot candidate — took 41 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, with 71 percent of precincts reporting. Obama came in just under 60 percent. The Associated Press did not call the race for Obama until close to midnight.

And in Kentucky, 42 percent of Democrats chose “uncommitted” rather than cast a vote for the incumbent president. Obama took 58 percent, with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

“Considering that a felon in prison did about that well in West Virginia’s primary against Obama a few weeks back, perhaps the Democrats might consider the possibility that they are going to lose the general election,” writes Clayton Cramer.

Both of these states are considered deep red for 2012, but the demographics of Jacksonian white working-class voters in these states aren’t culturally all that different from voters in large swaths of swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and even northern Florida. (Yeah, Democrats aren’t going to contest the Tarheel State that much this year. Public Policy Polling will insist otherwise, but…)

Would an energy policy so opposed to coal production that the Vice President bellows, “no coal plants in America” be a factor in this region, by any chance?

Because not every American can become a “web designer” like “Julia.”

Tags: Arkansas , Barack Obama , Kentucky

State Employee Shakedowns in Kentucky?


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At the moment, the outlook for Republicans in the Kentucky governor’s face looks pretty grim:

Gov. Steve Beshear holds a commanding 24-point lead over his challenger, Senate President David Williams, in Kentucky’s governor’s race, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll found that Beshear leads Williams 52 percent to 28 percent and that the incumbent governor is ahead in all but three demographic areas. Independent Gatewood Galbraith is a distant third with 9 percent of the vote.

Conducted by SurveyUSA, the poll is based on computerized and live telephone interviews carried out from July 22– to 27. It includes the responses of 512 likely voters in the Nov. 8 governor’s race and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

That was the news Sunday; today brings a development that may well shake up the race:

A veteran state employee has alleged in a letter delivered to Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway’s office Monday that some government workers were threatened with termination if they did not contribute to Democratic Governor Steve Beshear’s re-election campaign.

Rodney Young is a psychologist with the Department of Juvenile Justice and made the accusation in a letter dated July 27. Hoping to bring attention to “abuses of authority,” Young lists a dozen employees in the department who he alleges were threatened, adding an aide of the governor told his co-workers last year that they could lose their jobs if they didn’t give a $500 donation to Beshear’s re-election bid.

“In my 27 years in state government, I have never seen such an audacious and systematic approach to using state government as an arm to raise money for a political campaign,” Young wrote. “It is my hope that you will use the information in this letter to bring attention to this activity and to permanently separate public service from political solicitations.”

A Conway spokesperson says the attorney general’s office has received the complaint and will handle it according to their investigative protocol.

Note the complaint predates the poll.

You remember Jack Conway; he’s the Democratic Senate candidate who accused of Rand Paul of Aqua Buddha in a late ad last year – an ad called “ugly” and “demagogic” by notable right-wingers like, er, Ezra Klein. Yes, this is precisely the fellow who I want investigating allegations of election shenanigans on the part of Democratic candidates.

UPDATE: Hmmm. A pattern?

Dr. Patrick Sheridan confirmed to Pure Politics that this winter he received a phone call to his unlisted home number from Justice and Public Safety Cabinet Deputy Secretary Charles Geveden, who asked him to write a $1,000 check to Beshear’s campaign.

Sheridan said he wrote a $500 check to the Beshear campaign with a note attached. The note said the check was being written in response to a personal call from Geveden.

Some time later, his check was returned in the mail, Sheridan said.

Sheridan is a long-time non-merit employee in the cabinet. His name was one of 13 listed in a letter from another Justice Cabinet employee alleging strong-arm tactics by Geveden. Dr. Rodney Young sent that letter to the Republican Party of Kentucky, which has asked for an investigation.

It is against state law for an administration to target appointed state workers for political fundraising unless those solicitations are made “as part of an overall plan to contact voters not identified as state employees,” the law says.

Tags: David Williams , Jack Conway , Kentucky , Steve Beshear

Can the GOP Nationalize Kentucky’s Governor’s Race?


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In Kentucky, David Williams won the GOP gubernatorial primary, as expected. He’ll take on incumbent Democrat Gov. Steve Beshear, who held a healthy lead in polls of the hypothetical match-up back in April. As we’ve seen in many other Southern, conservative-leaning states, the GOP effort will try to tie the Democrat to President Obama, although there’s an interesting wrinkle in this race: Williams argues that Beshear has distanced himself from the president so much, he’s done it at inappropriate times:

Though Williams said it is no surprise he will not support Democratic President Barack Obama for re-election next year, he said Beshear was wrong earlier this month when he did not go to Fort Campbell to honor soldiers with the president.

Williams said he would have “stood side by side” with Obama “to honor the troops.”

There are four governor’s races this fall, but West Virginia looks like a steep climb for Republicans, Mississippi looks like safe ground for the GOP, and in Louisiana, Democrats are still looking for a candidate to take on incumbent Bobby Jindal. So Kentucky may be the premiere fight this November:

Though Democrats outnumber Republicans 1.63 million to 1.08 million in Kentucky, Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe thinks the race will be “close, competitive and the most expensive ever.”

He said both candidates will have sufficient campaign funds to get out their messages.

The race will be close because Kentucky is “Republican in attitude,” Briscoe said, noting that Republicans hold both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats and four of six U.S. House seats.

Expect to see the entire federal Republican delegation campaign for Williams, Briscoe said.

The race may see $15 million to $20 million spent, Briscoe said, noting that various groups will be interested in it since it is one of only four governor races in the nation this fall.

UPDATE: A Washington Republican watching this race closely tells me, “Kentucky’s employment rate is the sixth-worst in the nation and worse than all its neighbors, including hard-hit Ohio. Last month it was tied with Michigan. Worst of all, Kentucky doesn’t seem to be recovering at the pace of its neighboring states. Beshear has some strong ties to Obama – strong proponent of the stimulus, supported Obamacare and has even sided with Obama on some regulation of coal and energy production, all of which can be tied back to jobs and pocketbook issues.”

Is this race is comparable to the 2009 off-year gubernatorial races? The New Jersey race also featured a Democrat incumbent, but incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine entered his reelection campaign widely disliked on a scale that just doesn’t apply to Beshear. However, Bob McDonnell did manage to ride an anti-Washington, anti-tax, anti-spending mood to his big win over Creigh Deeds, so there may be some parallels there…

Tags: Barack Obama , David Williams , Kentucky , Steve Beshear

Too Close in Kentucky


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With 98 percent of precincts having reported, Chandler leads Barr by only 831 votes, according to Lexington’s WLEX. According to TPM, there will likely be demands for a recount. With a race this close, absentee voting can make a big difference. The remaining 2 percent of the electorate might swing the race a little bit, but overseas military voters could swing it even more.

Tags: Kentucky

Update: Barr Catching up in Kentucky


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With 458 out of 640 precincts reporting, Democrat Ben Chandler is now leading Republican Andy Barr by only 50.64% to 49.36%, in KY-6 — a district that many are considering a bellwether for this election.

Tags: Kentucky

Kentucky’s Indications


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The contested House races in Kentucky are considered important indicators. TPM shows Republicans with large leads in four out of Kentucky’s six districts. In KY-3, however, Democrat John Yarmuth has 9,150 votes to Republican Tod Lally’s 8, 110 — counted so far — for a gap of 52.22% to 46.28%. In KY-6, the Democrat enjoys a similarly small lead percentage-wise, but votes are coming in quicker. Democrat Ben Chandler leads Republican challenger Andy Barr by 24,262 counted votes to 20,720, or 53.94% to 46.06%. Republicans enjoy heavy advantages in all the rest.

Tags: Kentucky

New Footage from Valle Incident


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A new video from Red State shows what happens right before MoveOn.org activist Lauren Valle was stepped on by a Rand Paul supporter.  In the moments before, Valle had been right up against the car carrying Paul, shoving a sign in an open window.

Red State also notes some differences  between Valle’s account of the incident and what occurred.

Tags: Kentucky

Paul, Conway Supporters Act Violently Before Debate


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Before last night’s Kentucky senate debate, there were at least two violent incidents, including a Rand Paul supporter who stepped on the shoulder and head of MoveOn.org activist Lauren Valle who had been thrown to the ground, and a Jack Conway supporter who stepped on the foot of a Paul supporter who had recently had foot surgery.

Valle was trying to present Paul with a “RepubliCorp” award, a satirical honor MoveOn.org gives to GOP candidates who have received donations from corporations. Before she was able to reach Paul, Valle was thrown to the ground by several Paul supporters. Her blonde wig was yanked off and a man started stomping on her neck and head, while in the background people shout “Get the police,” and one man said, “No, no, no. Come on.”

“We think it’s very unfortunate that incidents like this happened and one thing that’s made America so great is the fact, that despite passionate difference on issues, we keep our discourse civil and non-violent and we are committed to keeping this campaign about issues and keeping it civil and we call on both sides to make sure events like that don’t happen again,” Paul campaign manger Jesse Benson told Battle ’10.

“We want everyone to be civil,” said Paul in a Fox News interview this morning. “When we arrived there was enormous passion on both sides and it really was something where you walked into a daze of lights flashing, people yelling and screaming, bumping up, and it was a bit of a crowd control problem.”

“It’s an unusual situation to have so many people, so passionate on both sides, jockeying back and forth and it wasn’t something that I liked or anybody liked about that situation,” he added. “So I hope in the future it’s going to be better.”

GOP sources tell Battle ’10 that Valle had earlier approached Paul and nearly hit him in the head with a sign she was carrying, and suggested that supporters may have been concerned about her approaching Paul again. Other Conway supporters had encircled Paul’s car earlier, and the whole atmosphere was very heated, particularly among Conway supporters, reported the GOP operative.

Valle, who was arrested for vandalizing a ship in May, said, “I have a bit of a headache,” following the attack.

Before the debate, a Paul supporter also had her foot stepped on by a Conway supporter. “The woman was wearing a surgical boot, but after the injury, her incision was cut open. Police say she refused medical treatment and also filed an assault report,” reported the Kentucky Post.

Tags: Kentucky

New NRSC Ad: Conway Trying to ‘Change the Subject’


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In yet another biting response to Conway’s infamous “Aqua Buddha” ad, the NRSC says the reason Conway would “do something so offensive” is because he is trying to change the subject. Why? Because “Conway would rather talk about anything, anything except his support for President Obama’s policies.”

Tags: Kentucky

Conway’s ‘Aqua Buddha’ Bump?


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The Fix is reporting that a new poll conducted for the DSCC (disclaimer) shows Jack Conway leading Rand Paul — 49 to 47 percent — which is Conway’s best performance in a poll since late June. The poll was taken Sunday and Monday, after Conway’s campaign released its now-infamous “Aqua Buddha” ad.

Could be a preemptive strike to head off the independent polling that will surface in the next few days. Hard to believe that Conway’s ad, which earned him public floggings from Chris Matthews and Matt Lauer, and was criticized by several members of his own party, is helping his cause in any way, shape or form.

Tags: Kentucky

Conway’s ‘Offensive’


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From a Conway campaign e-mail, subject line “Offense leads to victory”:

When a woman told GQ Magazine that Paul “blindfolded me, tied me up… told me their God was ‘Aqua Buddha,’” we went on the offensive. Now he’s refusing to even shake my hand, but he still has not explained his actions.

Sure, keep digging.

Tags: Kentucky

Paul: Conway a ‘False Witness’


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Rand Paul’s campaign has released this ad in response to Jack Conway’s now infamous “Aqua Buddha” spot. Paul refused to shake hands with Conway following last night’s debate at the University of Louisville. “You should be ashamed of yourself,” Paul said to Conway in his opening statement. “You should apologize. Have you no decency? Have you no shame?”

Here’s the ad, which urges voters “Don’t be fooled by Conway’s desperate attack” — “gutter politics at its worst”:

Ouch.

Tags: Kentucky

Jack Conway: Obama’s BFF


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Rand Paul’s latest ad uses an Obama voice impersonator to highlight Conway’s support for the President and many of his key policy initiatives. It’s a pretty good impression of the President, though far from perfect. Check it out:

*Note: Don’t bother dialing the phone number that appears toward the end. Battle ‘10 already tried out of curiosity. Jack Conway didn’t answer. No one did

Tags: Kentucky

Paul Up 11, Dems Giving Up On KY?


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A new Rasmussen poll has Rand Paul leading Jack Conway by 11 points — 49 percent to 38 percent.

In other (presumably not unrelated) news, DSCC has canceled several ad buys — close to $300,000 worth of air time — in Kentucky, a pretty clear signal that Democrats sense the race is slipping away. Hotline on Call reports:

The cancellation is another indication that the DSCC is re-evaluating its spending strategy as some states that were believed to be sure things have become increasingly competitive. Earlier Wednesday, the DSCC reserved air time in Connecticut, a state the was firmly in the Democratic column at the beginning of the cycle. The DSCC reserved $250K in Connecticut, roughly the same amount it is canceling in Kentucky.

The cancellation also comes a day after the DSCC unexpectedly went up in West Virginia, a sign that that race has also tightened.

Not all the news this week has been bad for Democrats, though. In Washington and California — two races that looked like pick up opportunities for the GOP just a month ago — Sens. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) appear to be opening up leads in recent polls.

Tags: Kentucky

Conway Closing? (Not So Fast...)


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In what appears to be a rather shocking turn-around, a new SurveyUSA poll of likely voters has Republican Rand Paul in a statistical tie with Democrat Jack Conway, 49 percent to 47 percent. In four months of SurveyUSA polling, Conway had not received above 45 percent and Paul had not receive below 51 percent. An identical poll from three weeks ago had Paul leading big, 55 percent to 40 percent. Some of the finer data points do appear rather startling: 

- Among women, Conway and Paul had been even in 3 previous polls, but Conway today leads by 16.
- In North Central KY, Paul had led by as many as 22 points, now tied.
- Among more affluent voters, Paul had led by as many as 21 points, today leads by 5.

Predictably, Conway’s campaign is touting the poll as evidence that Kentucky voters are turning against Paul. However, as RealClearPolitics points out, one crucial aspect of the polling deserves special mention:

It’s worth noting that the SurveyUSA sample for this poll is 51 percent Democrat and 36 percent Republican. The 2008 turnout in the state was 47 percent Democrat and 38 percent Republican.

With this is mind, the results actually seem like terrible news for Conway. If Kentucky Democrats think they can beat their ‘08 turnout by four percentage points and still lose by two (or even tie), they are probably in a for a big letdown in November.

Tags: Kentucky

NRSC Targets Conway


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In it’s first television ad of the election cycle, to air later this week, the NRSC goes after Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in Kentucky. Hotline offers some analysis:

There are two ways to look at the NRSC picking Kentucky to air its first IE ad. Republicans insist that ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) is polling well in the race, and that this isn’t a sign of weakness. Rather, they say, this is part of the NRSC’s strategy to solidify leads in Republican states on the east coast so it can move its money into more competitive races to the west, like Wisconsin, Illinois, Washington and California.

Democrats, on the other hand, rejoiced at news of the ad. They say it is telling that the NRSC is having to go into Kentucky — a seat that was previously held by a Republican in a deep red state. Democrats say that the ad is an indication that for all the talk about taking back the majority, Republicans still have to play defense here. They also note that if the establishment backed candidate in the race, Secretary of State Tray Grayson (R), had defeated Paul in the primary the NRSC probably wouldn’t have had to play here at all.

Check it out:

Tags: Kentucky

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