Over in Ohio, Third Base Politics sends word that the Board of Elections director says Cuyahoga County — the one that includes Cleveland — is on pace for 430,000 out of about 978,000 registered voters, roughly 43 percent turnout.

For perspective, the county made up almost all of Obama’s margin of victory in Ohio in 2008. Obama won 458,422 votes in this county in 2008, and beat McCain by 258,542 votes; Obama’s margin in Ohio was 262,224.

Democrats Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher needed big margins out of Cleveland, and so far, it’s not coming together for them.

UPDATE: The prediction is now revised downward: 410,000.

Panic! Panic! A second poll has Pat Toomey trailing in Pennsylvania!

Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.

. . . It’s hard to explain Sestak’s latest apparent comeback. There’s a sense that faithful Democrats are paying closer attention in the closing weeks as President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country making the case for keeping Democrats in charge.And Sestak’s campaign appears adept at using an opponent’s own words against him in political TV ads. On air now is a commercial showing Toomey, a former Lehigh Valley congressman, saying his voting record is “hard to distinguish from Rick Santorum’s.”

Oh, and in Ohio . . .

Republican Rob Portman heads into the home stretch with a 55 – 34 percent likely voter lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds Portman’s lead statistically unchanged from his leads of 55 – 35 percent September 17 and 55 – 36 percent October 6.

“Given that Lt. Gov. Fisher has been trailing Portman by roughly 20 points since the fall campaign got underway, there’s not much reason to think he can close that gap appreciably in the final two weeks of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Other than self-identified Democrats, it is hard to find a demographic group that supports Fisher.”

Quinnipiac begins last rites for the Lee Fisher for Senate campaign in Ohio.

Republican Rob Portman remains far ahead of Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, 55 – 36 percent among likely voters, in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today that shows the race unchanged from Portman’s 55 – 35 percent likely voter lead September 17.

By a 44 – 33 percent margin, likely voters in Ohio want the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate after the November elections, the independent Quinnipiac University survey finds. Voters also want, 54 – 39 percent, their senator to oppose President Obama’s policies.

Portman leads 93 – 3 percent among Republicans and 67 – 25 percent among independent voters, while Fisher carries Democrats 80 – 10 percent.  Portman has a small 47 – 43 percent lead among women, but buries Fisher among men 63 – 30 percent.

“It would seem that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher’s best shot at victory might be finding a way to stop men from voting.  Otherwise, he faces an incredibly uphill battle in the four weeks before Election Day in reversing a 33-point disadvantage among male voters,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The fact that Fisher hasn’t been able to make up any ground since the last Quinnipiac University poll is a bad omen for his ability to make this a close race.”

Legendary college football coach Lou Holtz offers a message on behalf of the NRCC:

We are late into the fourth quarter of the midterm elections and the NRCC needs your immediate help to drive our Republican Party to Victory. In case you don’t recognize me, my name is Lou Holtz and if my 40 years coaching college football taught me anything, it’s how to spot a winning team.

And I’m writing to tell you — Quarterbacked by John Boehner and Pete Sessions — our Republican Party has an excellent team of limited government, pro-freedom individuals ready to take the field in Washington and defeat the other team’s liberal agenda.But they can’t find the End Zone without your support. With less than 28 days left until the election your support is needed. It may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.

You see, despite the slew of positive polls and media reports on our Party’s terrific chance to recapture the U.S. House majority, the truth is the ball is still on the 20-yard line with plenty of time left on the clock.

And the other team is fierce. They will say or spend anything to get another four downs to spend our money and strip away our freedoms that have made America a beacon of hope for 234 years.

My friend, YOU are the NRCC’s 12th man and they urgently need your help to win every U.S. House seat possible, fire Nancy Pelosi, and elect a Republican to the Speaker’s chair this November.Please join me and help them by making a generous contribution of $39, $1 dollar for every seat needed create a NEW Republican Majority. Your support may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.Thank you.

Sincerely,

Lou Holtz, 

Hall of Fame Coach 

Ironically, after the e-mail ended, he continued, “You’re talking about one poll. One [darn] poll. The guy was not — was not a good congressman last year! He was very disappointing. We’re talking about the best congressmen, not who had the best day! Not who’s played the weakest [darn] schedule! Who the heck have the Democrats played?”

[Slight language warning in this clip.]

UPDATE: Speaking of college football, in Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher argues that the job-creation record compiled by him and Ted Strickland is comparable to Woody Hayes’s “three yards and a cloud of dust.”

Republican Rob Portman observes the state has lost 400,000 jobs in the past four years. Perhaps Fisher meant “three yards, a fumble, and the defense runs it back the distance for six points.”

Third Base Politics lets us know that Democrats in Ohio ought to be quoting Yogi Berra: “It gets late early out there.”

They’re voting already. And the absentee-ballot requests are already pointing in one direction:

A higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats in Ohio’s three largest counties have asked for absentee ballots this year  — an ominous sign for the party hoping to repel GOP forces on Election Day. Roughly three out of 10 registered Ohio voters live in Franklin, Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties.

With early voting under way this week, Republican voters in Franklin and Hamilton counties have requested more absentee ballots than their Democratic counterparts — hard evidence of a much different environment than 2008 when an avalanche of Democratic absentee ballot requests dwarfed Republican requests in both counties.

In Cuyahoga County, registered Democrats have requested 60,960 absentee ballots compared with 28,888 for voters registered as Republicans, according to the county Board of Elections figures through Tuesday.

Good news for Democrats?

Consider that Democrats hold an almost four-to-one edge in voter registration in Cuyahoga County, according to Ohio Secretary of State office statistics. Once that ratio is taken into account, the numbers show 33 percent of the Republicans in Cuyahoga County have requested an absentee ballot thus far compared with 18 percent of Democrats.

To use another Berra quote, it’s possible that Ohio Democrats have made too many wrong mistakes.

UPDATE: Elsewhere in Ohio: Lee Fisher, the Democrat who ran for lieutenant governor four years ago promising to create jobs, and who continues to tout that promise, may lay off 10 staffers.

MSNBC’s Chuck Todd explains why the GOP’s John Kasich is barely ahead in Ohio’s governor’s race, while the GOP’s Rob Portman leads the Senate race easily: “[Ted] Strickland topping Kasich 2-1 in spots aired; while Portman has nearly a 6-1 advantage in spots aired last week over [Lee] Fisher.”

That will do it. Republicans hope Kasich is ready to saturate the airwaves in the final month.

Quinnipiac tells the Democrats that it’s probably time to give up on Ohio . . . just about all of it:

Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 – 35 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, while President Barack Obama has a 60 – 38 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 58 – 37 percent margin, likely Ohio voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes President Obama’s policies, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  And by 49 – 31 percent, voters want Republicans rather than Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

This is the first general election survey of likely voters in Ohio in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. 

Keep this in mind as you continue to see polls of registered voters released this late in the cycle.

When your opponent ran for his last job by touting an ability to create jobs, and then failed to create any jobs… well, you end up with ads like this one for Rob Portman, Republican Senate candidate in Ohio:

I look forward to the Lee Fisher ad entitled “Wait, Wait, Wait, I Get a Do-Over!”

Ben Smith of Politico notices:

Ohio [Democratic] Senate candidate Lee Fisher is crossing that line as well, with a campaign fundraiser [the evening of September 11] at the home of a Mansfield City councilwoman, Ellen Hairing. Asked about the timing, a Fisher aide noted that earlier that day, the Democrat is attending a first-responder dedication ceremony in Hilliard, Ohio.  His Republican opponent, Rob Portman, isn’t doing any events that day, an aide said.

“Fisher is, as far as I know, the only federal candidate in the country holding a fundraiser that day,” Smith notes.

Indeed, 9/11 is less marked as an anniversary year by year; Fisher’s act would have been unthinkable in 2002 or probably even 2006. This will probably not have much impact on the race; Fisher is already trailing by quite a bit.

But would you want to be the only candidate in the country holding a fundraiser that day?

The AP tells us: 

President Barack Obama is coming to a swing state near you this fall.

The Democrat known for packing stadiums from coast to coast plans at least four major rallies in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada before the Nov. 2 midterm elections.

He also plans to host a teletown hall event in October to fire up backers of his 2008 presidential campaign in hopes they turn out for Democratic candidates this fall. That’s according to the Democratic National Committee.

Obama plans to host a rally in Madison, Wis., on Sept. 28; Philadelphia on Oct 10; Ohio on Oct. 17, and Las Vegas on Oct. 22.

Party aides say the White House also could add more presidential appearances in the run up to the elections.

Let’s unpack this: Wisconsin is to help Feingold and Tom Barrett in the governor’s race. Philadelphia is presumably to help Sestak and Onofrio in those statewide races, and maybe the swing districts in the Philly suburbs. Ohio is one that he technically has to do, even though support for Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher looks pretty anemic right now.

And the final one, closest to the election, is Nevada, to help save Harry Reid and maybe help Rory Reid avoid an embarrassing landslide. Maybe a House race or two.

Not much on offense, really; no Florida, no Missouri, no New Hampshire, no effort to help out a Democratic challenger in Louisiana or North Carolina. Obama’s underwater in Ohio, underwater in Pennsylvania, underwater in Nevada, and a little underwater in Wisconsin. (I guess it’s not that surprising when you’re underwater nationally.)

This is a lousy day if you’re a Democrat running for Senate in the Midwest. First Sestak trails Toomey by nine, and now “the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of likely voters in Ohio shows Republican Rob Portman picking up 45 percent support, while his Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, earns the vote from 37 percent.”

Public Policy Polling will probably release a poll from Illinois today, too, and if the likely voters of Illinois are anything like the likely voters of Pennsylvania, well, Alexi Giannoulias is probably going to have a lousy day, too.

Fans of Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Lee Fisher won’t like this ad from the GOP’s Rob Portman, but when you say, “Ohioans should hold [me] to [my] promise to take an aggressive approach to helping businesses locate in the state or expand operations already here,” people tend to do just that.

Over in Politico it is written:

Most people agree that [California Sen. Barbara] Boxer, despite her fundraising prowess and deep network of donors, will require an infusion of DSCC cash. Her rival, Republican Carly Fiorina, is another partial self-funder, but she won’t have the same level of cash to throw around as her ticketmate, gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman. Still, the polls suggest the race is tight, and a long-serving incumbent is at risk. “They don’t want to lose Boxer, and they don’t want to lose California,” Sheinkopf said, noting how expensive it is to win back a lost seat in the Golden State because its media costs are so prohibitive.

Boxer has $11 million on hand, and has an 11-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Fiorina. (Keep in mind, Fiorina can at least partially self-finance.) By comparison, in Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher is faces a 9-to-1 disadvantage to Republican Rob Portman, and in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey has $4.5 million to Joe Sestak’s $2 million on hand. In other words, there are other Democrats who will really, really need DSCC funds this cycle; you have to wonder how they’ll feel about the national committee pumping funds to a candidate sitting on so much cash.

Over in the Corner, Ramesh thinks I’m too rosy about the chances for Marco Rubio in Florida’s Senate race and Rob Portman in Ohio’s Senate race.

Presume all the standard caveats: Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, don’t measure the drapes until you’ve won the office, anything can change in a New York minute, etc.

Rob Portman’s campaign led every poll from late September to mid-March; I can’t help but note that was during the peak of debate around the health-care bill. He’s currently sitting on $8.8 million in cash-on-hand; his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher, has $1.2 million. Fisher has led polls in recent months, but never by more than 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Obama’s job-approval numbers have been underwater in Ohio for quite some time. Fisher is on his third campaign manager this year; apparently it’s one of those jobs with a high turnover rate, like Spinal Tap drummer or number three in al-Qaeda.

It’s possible that the DSCC or the unions will dump enormous amounts of money into this race to help Fisher. But they’re probably going to be dealing with a lot of endangered Democrats across the country this fall.

Yes, Rubio has trailed by a few points lately. But he’s been off the airwaves for several months now. He’s sitting on a pile of cash and has enormous grassroots support, and Charlie Crist has the much more difficult balancing act, keeping enough of his old Republican supporters while winning over enough Democrats.

The reason Crist leads is because the Democrat is in the mid-teens in this race, and I have my doubts that either Kendrick Meek or Jeff Greene will remain at that abysmally low level through November. Once the Democrats have a nominee, one of two scenarios is likely to play out. One, Greene wins and spends millions upon millions trying to tear down Crist and win over wavering Democrats, eating away at Crist’s standing in the polls. Two, Meek wins, and does the same, but focuses on African-Americans. (Think Meek will be quiet if the DSCC fails to support the lone African-American Democratic Senate candidate this year*?) I suspect once Crist starts taking flak from both directions, you’ll see his Republican backers drift towards Rubio, and the Democrats shift back to Meek or Greene.

Is either race an absolute, 100 percent, take-it-to-the-bank lock? No, but for the Republicans to blow either one in what looks like a wave year for conservatives would be pretty surprising.

* Well, there is Alvin Greene in South Carolina, but it’s rather hard to imagine an all-out DSCC push on his behalf.

The Rob Portman for Senate campaign in Ohio sends this along:

2010 By the Numbers

$8.8 million: Cash-on-Hand

$2.65 million: Amount raised in 2nd quarter

16,621: Total number of individual donors for overall campaign

5,459: Total number of individual donors in 2nd quarter

Over 81%: Percentage of 2nd quarter contributions from Ohio

23,724: Total number of contributions from individuals for overall campaign

His Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher . . . well, he had less than a million in the bank on April 14.

Elsewhere in Ohio, the campaign of Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman is amused by the turnout for candidates at the Fourth of July parades. They catch Democrat Lee Fisher declaring, via Twitter that he had 50 or even more volunteers marching in the Northland, Ohio, parade, and check the video to estimate a total closer to . . . two.

I would note that as amusing as this is, I’m not sure whether it reflects that no one wanted to march with Lee Fisher or whether it reflects a broader midsummer exhaustion with politics among the electorate. We’ve just endured a two-year presidential campaign, the birth of the tea parties, the angry town halls of last summer, the ridiculous process of health care from late last fall and this winter and spring, the Scott Brown earthquake . . . and everyone knows this fall will feature one of the most intense and broadly-fought midterm elections in recent memory. People may need a breather from intense political fights during the dog days of summer . . .

Health care is going to be a big deal, foreclosures will be a big deal, the oil spill is going to be a big deal in certain states, and the possibility of some Islamist radical nut blowing up something will be a big deal in this election. But I think the dominant concern of voters in most parts of the country remains what Joe Biden calls a three-letter word: “J-O-B-S.”

The first ad of the general election from Rob Portman, GOP Senate candidate in Ohio, aims to hammer that point home.

Portman’s Plan is available here.

Sometimes, you get a rival who makes it too easy. The campaign of Ohio GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman enjoys this moment:

While campaigning in Marietta, Ohio, this weekend, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher said:

“I often say, if you want to see the jobs that Ted [Gov. Strickland] and I created . . . all you have to do is go to every corner of Ohio.” . . .

According to Ohio Labor Market Information data:

For April 2010, Ashtabula County Had An Unemployment Rate Of 13.6%.

But In April 2007, The Unemployment Rate For Ashtabula County Was 7.3%.

For April 2010, Hamilton County Had An Unemployment Rate Of 9.9%.

But In April 2007, The Unemployment Rate For Hamilton County Was 5.0%.

For April 2010, Meigs County Had An Unemployment Rate Of 15.0%.

But In April 2007, The Unemployment Rate For Meigs County Was 8.2%.

For April 2010, Williams County Had An Unemployment Rate Of 13.8%.

But In April 2007, The Unemployment Rate For Williams County Was 6.1%.

It is true that Lee Fisher often says that, but it is also true that people often scoff at him when he says that.

For a long while, Ohio and Nevada looked like relatively easy GOP Senate pickups this fall. Polling out this morning suggests that at least for now, they look like dogfights.

In Nevada:

According to the Mason-Dixon poll taken Monday through Wednesday, if the general election were held today, here’s how the leading Republican contenders would fare against Reid:

■ Lowden would win 42 percent of the vote and Reid 39 percent. Ten percent remain undecided, 6 percent would choose “none” of these candidates and 3 percent would pick “other” contenders.

■ Tarkanian would get 42 percent and Reid 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided, 4 percent choosing other and 3 percent picking none.

■ Reid would win 42 percent and Angle 39 percent with 10 percent undecided, 5 percent picking other candidates and 4 percent choosing none.

Meanwhile in Ohio:

The first University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll of the general election campaign finds Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and former Republican congressman Rob Portman are just about even in their bids for the Senate.

The poll says Fisher has 47% to 46% for Portman.

In the governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland has a slight lead over Republican challenger John Kasich.

The landline and cell phone survey puts Strickland ahead 49-44%.

The unemployment rate in Nevada is 13.7 percent; the unemployment rate in Ohio is 10.9 percent.

We shouldn’t be surprised by a close race in Ohio, but if I were the Rob Portman campaign, I would be a little concerned about this:

2010 Senate
43% Fisher (D), 42% Portman (R)

What’s really surprising is that Portman has a nice 45/26 favorable/unfavorable split, better than Fisher’s 48/34, yet he trails a bit.

I don’t worry if the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll puts Portman down. I don’t even worry that much if it’s Quinnipiac. But when Rasmussen finds similar numbers, I think it’s a sign that Democrat Lee Fisher came out of the primary in pretty good shape. I’m not panicking because of a couple of other factors — an improved GOP ground game in the Buckeye State, the high unemployment throughout Ohio, the broad indicators of independents preferring Republicans this year, etc. — but this race will probably be a tougher fight for the GOP than it has appeared for the past few months.