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Tags: Middle Cheese

Middle Cheese: GOP Counties Turned Out for Early Voting



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Middle Cheese checks in:

Just a brief report from the Big Cheeses at Team Romney about Ohio early/absentee voting: Obama is under-performing in Kerry-Obama counties, and Republicans are outperforming in McCain 08 counties. As of yesterday, in swing Hamilton County, there are 1,000 fewer Democrat and 800 more GOP early/absentee votes than at this point in 08. Ohio Republicans will turn out. But the key to a Romney victory in OH will be independent voters, who favor Romney by double-digits over Obama in 21 of the last 24 public opinion polls.


 

Tags: Middle Cheese

Middle Cheese: Internals Show Romney Leading Wisconsin by One Point



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Middle Cheese, my source on the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign who talks to the Romney big cheeses regularly, writes in with a state-of-the-race update for Thursday:

Politically, Hurricane Sandy (and Gov. Chris Christie) helped President Obama, but my sense is that it was more a respite than a boost.

FL, VA, and CO are looking very solid for Romney. NV remains within reach for Romney, but favors Obama ever-so-slightly.

WI, MI, IA, PA seem to be closing well for Romney. In WI, internal GOP polling shows Romney with a 1 point lead and gaining steam.

MN and PA aren’t head fakes by Team Romney; they are legitimate opportunities to expand Mitt’s electoral map. MN has gone from “solid blue” to “lean Democrat.” Team Romney is not only buying ads in PA, but is sending Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio to campaign there today. The fact that Obama is also buying ads in PA is proof that PA is in play. Don’t be surprised if Mitt makes a stop in PA over the next few days.

According to the polls, OH remains too close to call. While the early voting trends make me nervous, my sources on the ground in Ohio tell me that the GOP ground game is as good as it has ever been. Romney, Ryan and their top 100 surrogates will hold a “Real Recovery Road” mega-rally in West Chester tomorrow evening, which should provide grassroots Republicans with a huge shot in the arm going into the weekend.

UPDATE: Moments after I hit “publish,” I see this news:

Mitt Romney is set to make a last-minute campaign stop on Sunday in Pennsylvania, The Daily has learned. Details are still being determined and with scheduling for the final days of the campaign still fluid, it’s possible Romney could still bypass the state. But two top Pennsylvania Republican officials and a Romney adviser said a large rally in the vote-rich southeastern part of the state is in the works for Sunday. The final decision is likely to be made on Friday.

Tags: Middle Cheese , Pennsylvania

Middle Cheese: ‘Bottom Line, I Think Election Comes Down to Ohio’



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Middle Cheese checks in:

As of today, I think Mitt is ahead in Florida and Virginia.  Mitt will be in Florida all day on Saturday campaigning with Marco Rubio, with goal of putting Florida away.  Virginia leans Romney; the campaign going up with ads blasting Obama’s comments about the Navy in Tidewater. 

Colorado and New Hampshire are looking good, but too close to call. Obama’s up slightly in Iowa and Nevada, but I’d also characterize those as too close to call.  There’s a new Rasmussen Pennsylvania poll showing Obama +5 ahead; it’ll take a late surge for Romney to win there.  My guess is that Michigan is more likely to go for Mitt than Pennsylvania. 

Bottom line: Election comes down to Ohio, I think.  Nail-biter.

Tags: Middle Cheese

Middle Cheese: Internals Show Latinos in Florida, Colorado Shifting to Romney



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My source Middle Cheese checks in, with the latest he’s hearing from the Big Cheeses over at the Romney campaign:

Abortion: The liberal media is hoping Mitt’s comment to the Des Moines Register that the pro-life legislation isn’t “part of my agenda” will cause an uproar in the pro-life community. Believe me, it won’t because we pro-lifers (I am a card-carrying member of the National Right to Life) know that Romney was referring to his legislative agenda for jobs and the economy in the first 100 days. And as Romney said himself, one of his first acts as president will be to issue an Executive Order reinstating Reagan’s “Mexico City Policy” banning U.S. funding of international family planning groups that provide abortion services. Romney will also repeal Obamacare, which mandates coverage of contraceptives and abortion-inducing drugs by religious organizations. Sorry liberals, but the pro-life community remains energized for Romney.

Hispanics: Mitt’s strong debate performance is having the same positive impact on Hispanic voters that it has had with the general electorate. My sources on Team Romney say their post-debate internal polling shows improvement for Romney among Hispanics nationally, and growing support in Florida and Colorado. In Florida, Mitt is moving up and Obama is polling below what he got in 2008 among Hispanics (57 percent).

Benghazi: Look for Team Romney to turn up the heat on Obama for his actions (or lack thereof) to secure our consulate in Libya prior to the 9/11 murders of our Ambassador and three Americans, and his Administration’s conflicting and confusing explanations of what happened in the aftermath of what we now know was a terrorist attack.

VP debate: I won’t play the expectations game, but the fact is that Joe Biden has done 18 Presidential or Vice Presidential debates and Paul Ryan has done zero. Unlike Obama, Joe Biden is going to throw the kitchen sink at the Romney-Ryan ticket — “Big Bird,” “47 percent,” “tax returns,” “$5 trillion tax cut,” and of course “voucherizing Medicare.” Expect Ryan to counter Biden’s negative attacks with the facts, but then to quickly return to overarching theme of the “big choice” in this election and how a Romney-Ryan Administration would solve the big problems.

Tags: Abortion , Joe Biden , Middle Cheese , Paul Ryan , Polling

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