Today’s Morning Jolt features… (sigh) yes, some Bob Filner and Carlos Danger Anthony Weiner revelations and reaction, but also an eye on the upcoming lower-ticket campaigns that might not get nearly as much attention…

Looking at the House Races and Even Lower on the Ticket…

You can always tell which incumbents a national party committee thinks are most vulnerable by who they tout the most. The NRCC has the “Patriot Program,” which lists 20 incumbents who… well, I’ll let the NRCC describe it: “a goal-oriented program helps Members stay on offense and fully prepare for their re-election campaigns. Through a number of Member-based communications, fundraising and strategy goals established at the beginning of the cycle, the program helps to ensure that its members are ready to run well-funded and organized campaigns against their Democratic opponents.”

The current lineup: Reps. Dan Benishek (Mich.), Gary Miller (Calif.) Michael Grimm (N.Y.), Bill Johnson (Ohio), Tom Latham (Iowa), Tom Reed (N.Y.), Scott Rigell (Va.), Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) Lee Terry (R-Neb.) Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Steve Southerland (Fla.) Rodney Davis (Ill.) Jeff Denham (Calif.), Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) Bob Gibbs (Ohio), Chris Gibson (N.Y.), Joe Heck (Nev.), David Joyce (Ohio), David Valadao (Calif.) and Jackie Walorski (Ind.). Not too many surprises there; most of those districts were either carried by Obama or represented by a Democrat until recently.

Meanwhile, the NRCC notices that the South Florida real estate market is so hot, at least one Democratic Congressman hasn’t been able to move into his district.

It has been almost a year since Joe Garcia told The Miami Herald’s editorial board that he’d move into the new Key West-to-Miami-Dade Congressional District 26 if he won.

Garcia won. But he hasn’t yet moved. His office said the freshman Democrat is in the process of getting a place.

Maybe he’s just waiting for prices to come down.

Meanwhile, Democrats are beginning to realize that having a pop-culturally-dominant messiah at the top of the ticket, but paying less attention down-ticket, has big consequences:

Barack Obama has spent well over $1 billion on his political campaigns, but it’s the $20 million to $30 million Democrats didn’t shell out three years ago that is costing the White House as he slogs through the first six months of his second term.

The GOP’s wildly successful, low-key and stunningly cheap campaign to seize state capitals in 2010 has come back to haunt Obama and his fellow Democrats. It’s now clear that the party’s loss of 20 state legislative chambers and critical Midwestern governorships represents an ongoing threat every bit as dangerous as the more publicized Republican takeback of the House that same year.

There was no stopping the GOP wave that year — but strategists in both parties say Obama’s team might have blunted it if they had somehow managed to cut into the GOP’s cash advantage — $30 million to the Democrats’ $10 million — in statehouse races by making campaigns at the very bottom of the ballot a priority.

Eh. Obama has always been very skilled at persuading voters to believe in him. They’re not so persuaded when he touts Jon Corzine, Martha Coakley, Creigh Deeds, or most of the 2010 Democrats…

I’ll end the week by sharing two items from the Friday edition of the Morning Jolt. First, a Jolt/Campaign Spot exclusive . . .

The NRCC, Harvesting a New Message on the Vine

Are you familiar with Vine?

It’s sort of “Twitter for video.” Basically, it’s a network designed for sharing six-second snippets of video. Mini-YouTube, if you will. I’m not quite convinced that this will take off, but I’m sure some folks said the same thing about 140-characters-or-less messages when Twitter debuted. Anyway, in a Morning Jolt/Campaign Spot exclusive, you can check out the National Republican Congressional Committee’s debut effort in using this mobile service.

The National Republican Congressional Committee today released a 6 second Vine ad on Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s unwavering support for unions at the expense of South Carolina jobs.

Colbert Busch has said union voices need to be “lifted up” and even took campaign cash from the same union that tried to destroy South Carolina jobs. Unions have enough of a voice in Washington, they don’t need Elizabeth Colbert Busch too.

This is the first time a political organization has launched an actual ad on Vine to attack an opponent. Vine ads can easily be shared and are a new frontier of political media.

“Elizabeth Colbert Busch has consistently sided with the union that tried to destroy South Carolina jobs,” said NRCC Regional Press Secretary Katie Prill. “She can dodge debates and questions over her shady alliance with these unions, but she can’t hide from the truth. The families of South Carolina deserve a voice in Congress, but Elizabeth Colbert Busch is only concerned with being the voice of unions in Washington.”

Elizabeth Colbert Busch Said The Voices Of All Unions Need To Be “Lifted Up.” “‘The voices of the union — of all unions — need to be lifted up,’ Colbert Busch said.” (Paige Lavender, “Jim Clyburn: Elizabeth Colbert Busch Will Protect Workers’ Rights In Congress,” The Huffington Post, 2/16/13)

National Review Online: “Colbert Busch Took Money From Union That Opposed S.C. Boeing Plant” (Jim Geraghty, “Colbert Busch took Money From Union That Opposed S.C. Boeing Plant,” National Review Online, 4/9/13)

A big deal? A passing fad? I guess we’ll see. But it’s good to see the NRCC trying new approaches and technologies and seeing what works.

 

The NRCC has fun emulating Rachel Maddow in their latest web video, hitting President Obama for holding up the Keystone XL Pipeline project.

“Lean Backwards.” Well, it’s safer than leaning forward when you’re atop Hoover Dam.

Over on the home page, a look at the GOP prospects for holding the House of Representatives in 2012. I figure it will get many comments and links and Facebook likes, as it’s one of our biggest articles.

It’s there. No, not the giant Roman Genn caricature of Newt Gingrich as Marvin the Martian.

No, lower.

No, lower.

Here.

On Twitter, I asked this morning, “Does anyone doubt that if the Keystone Pipeline ran through must-win swing states for Obama, he would have instantly approved?”

The NRCC is going after Democrats like Ohio Rep. Betty Sutton , arguing that by supporting Obama’s hesitation on the Keystone XL Pipeline, he is betraying “labor unions like the teamsters and segments of the AFL –CIO.

Announcer: Remember when President Obama said this about passing new jobs legislation?

Obama: We can no longer wait.

Announcer: But now it’s President Obama who wants to wait, to create up to 130,000 jobs with the Keystone pipeline bringing oil from Canada to the US.Announcer: If Washington does it Obama’s way that oil and those jobs will go to China. Congress has a chance to pass the pipeline jobs law before Christmas. The law has support of labor unions like the teamsters and segments of the AFL –CIO. But Betty Sutton is on the fence. Tell Sutton to support new jobs instead of supporting Obama.

Ads and robocalls will run in the districts of Reps. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Mark Critz (D-Pa.). 

The National Republican Congressional Committee, whose mission is to preserve GOP control of the House, sends along word that they have enjoyed their best October fundraising in a non-election year ever, raising $4.56 million and leaving the committee with $13.8 million in cash on hand. Their year-to-date fundraising is 59 percent higher than it was in 2009 ($48.7 million vs. $30.6 million), and the NRCC’s net position is $11.1 million ahead of where the committee was at this time in 2009.

Of course, they’re in the majority; they should be well ahead of where they were in 2009!

For comparison, Roll Call reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $4.18 million in October and had $9.81 million in cash on hand on Oct. 31.

Everyone made a stir when the DCCC started tying themselves politically to the Occupy Wall Street protests, with good reason.

The National Republican Congressional Committee likes their odds of getting more support by standing on the other side.

It sounds like the DCCC move has consequences:

Banking executives personally called the offices of DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) and DCCC Finance Chairman Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) last week demanding answers, three financial services lobbyists told POLITICO.

“They were livid,” said one Democratic lobbyist with banking clients.

The execs asked the lawmakers: “What are you doing? Do you even understand some of the things that they’ve called for?” said another lobbyist with financial services clients who is a former Democratic Senate aide.

Democrats’ friends on Wall Street have a message for them: you can’t have it both ways.

To their credit, the Occupy Wall Street crowd has clarified their demands: “I don’t want to work. I want to bang the drum all day. I don’t want to play. I just want to bang on the drum all day.”

This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.

Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:

NY-9 PVI = D+5
 

Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.

The NRCC takes to the airwaves in Nevada, hitting Democrat Kate Marshall for supporting tax increases. They also imply that Nevada’s recent severe economic troubles can be laid at her feet, but I’m not sure how much voters will blame the state treasurer for high unemployment, loss of tourism dollars, and the most severely collapsed housing market in the country. (UPDATE: See below.)

Having said that, the Nevada treasurer is responsible for “ensures the state’s investments and debt obligations are managed prudently and in the best interest of the people of Nevada” and the state has the worst debt-to-budget ratio in the country, hitting 54 percent earlier this year.

The Republican in the race is Mark Amodei, who’s up on the air talking about “the human toll of this recession.”

“Instead of getting better, things have gotten worse.” Somehow, I suspect we’ll hear a lot more of messages like that in the coming year and a half, both in Nevada and nationwide.

Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District will select its next representative in a special election held on Sept. 13.

UPDATE: Then again, when a candidate campaigns by declaring, “I have taken the state through this fiscal crisis, steered it with a steady hand,” perhaps it’s fair to suggest she’s taking ownership of the state’s economic condition. And I suspect in the minds of many Nevadans, the crisis continues: The unemployment rate in the state is the highest in the nation at 12.4 percent, the housing market and commercial real estate markets are described as “bouncing along the bottom,” and regional executives are projecting that the state’s economy may not come back for another three to five years.

Two interesting bits of campaign hiring news, involving two men who played key roles in the GOP wins in the midterms:

First, a big hire for Tim Pawlenty: “Fox News has learned former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will announce on Monday that his presidential exploratory committee has hired Nick Ayers on as campaign manager. The move puts Ayers in position to fill the role of campaign manager in the likely event that Pawlenty announces a full blown presidential campaign in the next month or two. Nick Ayers is the former Executive Director of the Republican Governors Association under the leadership of Miss. Gov Haley Barbour, who is also weighing a potential White House run.”

Secondly, one of the chief strategists for House Republicans during the midterms moves to an influential non-party group: “Former National Republican Congressional Committee Political Director Brian O. Walsh will be the new president of American Action Network. Starting today, he’ll head up a powerful outside group that spent $26 million on races last election cycle.”

Last October, I chatted with Brian Walsh about the NRCC’s strategic choices here.

Folks at the National Republican Congressional Committee are having a good laugh over this…

IN NOVEMBER 2010, THE DCCC SAID IT WAS TARGETING 61 DISTRICTS CARRIED BY OBAMA: “The DCCC has identified 61 seats currently held by Republicans in districts that Barack Obama won in 2008.  ‘Republicans won a lot of seats they have no business winning,’ said a top Democratic strategist. ‘It’s going to be a full-on recruitment cycle [and] Israel is the perfect person for that.’” (Brian Beutler, “Blue Dogged: Meet Steve Israel, The Incoming Chair Of The DCCC,” Talking Points Memo, 11/23/10)

EARLIER THIS MONTH, THEY SCALED THAT BACK TO 37 SUBURBAN DISTRICTS: “Representative Nancy Pelosi’s selection of Mr. Israel to lead the Congressional campaign had much to do with his district, a swath of Nassau and Suffolk Counties where Democrats hold a modest registration edge but independents decide elections.  The path to retaking the House, both say, leads through 37 similar suburban districts, home to nine million independents who voted for President Obama in 2008 but deserted the party in the 2010 elections.” (David M. Halbfinger, “L.I. Congressman Leads Uphill Charge Toward a Democratic House,” New York Times, 03/19/11)

NOW, THE DCCC HAS BEEN FORCED TO FOCUS ON ONLY 14 DISTRICTS: “The Democratic Party is taking aim at 14 freshmen Republicans in the House, of 87 elected, whom it deems the most vulnerable…the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is focusing on districts where Mr. Obama and Senator John Kerry both won as presidential nominees and where Democrats have a registration advantage.” (Jennifer Steinhauer, “Hardly Settled in House, but Already in Hot Seat,” New York Times, 03/27/11)

ACTUALLY, THEY EVEN GOT THAT NUMBER WRONG.  IT’S 13 DISTRICTS WON BY KERRY, NOT 14: “All told, 63 Republicans in the 112th Congress will hold seats that President Obama carried in 2008 and, of that group, 13 will hold seats that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) also won in the 2004 presidential race.” (Chris Cillizza, “The Obama Republicans,” The Washington Post’s “The Fix” blog, 11/11/10)

Of course, we have very little sense of the political environment of 2012, and how it will affect the 435 House races. The more recent and drastically reduced target lists of the DCCC might be selling themselves short. Certain members of the public might decide that they like budget cuts in the abstract but recoil when they’re actually enacted; the GOP presidential candidate may run particularly strong in some parts of the country and particularly weak in others. Then, of course, there’s redistricting, and we don’t know how many incumbents will retire. Each party still has a lot of recruiting to do.

But it’s pretty remarkable that we’re not hearing much talk about Democrats retaking the House in 2012.

The National Republican Congressional Committee feels pretty good about their latest monthly fundraising numbers, $4.9 million during February,

That’s $3 million more than last month, and their cash on hand is now $4.3 million; they’ve paid off $1 million in debt. Their debt remains at $9.5 million.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had a better January, but has $18.6 million in debt headed into February.

If you thought you would never see the National Republican Congressional Committee speaking well of Democrats like California governor Jerry Brown, Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, departing Chicago mayor Richard Daley, and New York governor Andrew Cuomo . . . well, here’s their latest web ad:

Of course, the point is to draw a contrast between Democrats in state capitals and major cities, who have to balance budgets and who are embracing at least some spending cuts, and Washington Democrats, who have yet to find any serious non-defense cuts that they’re willing to embrace.

The NRCC debuts “Texts From Two Years Ago” [update: now called "Texts From Last Congress"], showcasing regrettable comments from incumbent House Democrats who weren’t washed away by the red tide of the 2010 midterms, coupled with fictional (although believable) constituent responses.

An example:

(202) McIntyre:

“This bill is not perfect, and I am very concerned about its cost as a strong advocate of fiscal responsibility.”1

(910) Constituent:

Wow. I’m guessing you voted no then?

(202) McIntyre:

Oh no, I voted yes, just saying fiscal responsibility is hip these days.

(910) Constituent:

Gee, thanks for nothing.

Or in Wisconsin . . .

(202) Ron Kind:

“What we’re trying to do is pass a recovery package that will create jobs, act quickly and then end . . .”1  

(608) Constituent:

Well, you were right about one thing . . . Those jobs ended pretty quickly.

A Washington Republican points out to me that one of the big narratives throughout the 2008 cycle was the National Republican Congressional Committee, tasked with chipping away at the Democrats’ 40-seat margin in the House, could not possibly compete or go on offense because of its then-dire financial position. Obviously, we know how that turned out.

He notes that the end-of-year reports show that the DCCC is in a financially worse position in January 2011 than the NRCC was in January of 2007.

In 2006, the DCCC had $9.3 million in debt and roughly $776,000 in cash on hand, while the NRCC had $14.4 million in debt and roughly $1.4 million on hand.

At the beginning of this year, the NRCC has $10.5 million in debt and $2.5 million in cash on hand. The DCCC has $805,000 cash on hand and an astounding $19 million in debt.

The NRCC is giddy this morning:

Dem campaign chief: Goal is making Pelosi Speaker again

House Democrats’ goal is to make Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) the Speaker of the House again, their campaign chairman said Wednesday evening. 

Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), set his goal as nothing short of winning back control of the House in the 2012 elections. ”We’re all trying to win it back,” Israel said on MSNBC when asked if it was Democrats’ goal of winning back enough seats to make Pelosi, the former Speaker and new minority leader, the next Speaker.

You’ll be seeing Nancy Pelosi, and this headline, in a lot of House race ads in 2012 . . .

The NRCC offers a memo, one week out.

What jumped out at me:

• “Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real.” Of course, many key states and districts have more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, so the GOP had better turn out better than their registration level.
• The memo specifically mentions, “New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District.” Hard to believe they would mention the districts of John Adler, Martin Heinrich, Mike McIntyre, and John Salazar if they didn’t think they had a real good shot at knocking off those incumbents.
• The memo also refers to “unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi.”
• “The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.”

The full memo:

#MORE#

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS

DATE: OCTOBER 26, 2010

SUBJECT: CLOSING THE DEAL: PUTTING THE PIECES IN PLACE FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY

With only a week to go until Election Day, Democrats have found themselves in a position they hoped to avoid from day one. As Republicans continue to expand the playing field and put races away early, Democrats are constantly plugging holes in the dam while resources grow scarce. After a natural post-Labor Day tightening in races across the country, developments at both the national and district-by-district levels confirm that Republicans are finishing strong. A few weeks ago, we found ourselves on the precipice of victory. Now we are closing the deal, moving toward accomplishing our ultimate goal of retiring Nancy Pelosi and capturing a new Republican majority.

While Democrats are still attempting to claim momentum, reality is far different. The Democrats’ ‘triage’ strategy is cutting off outgoing incumbents at a rapid pace, all but conceding losses in key races. The Rothenberg Political Report already rates 22 Democrat-held seats as either ‘Lean Republican’ or ‘Republican Favored’ with another 14 Democrat-held seats rated as ‘Toss Up/Tilt Republican.’ Public and private polling shows that Republicans are already on their way to winning in nearly 40 races. With a week to go, competitive races are moving quickly away from the Democrats and we have captured critical momentum that will play a large role in breaking the 39-seat barrier.

Early results are promising. Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real. In toss-up races like New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District, early Republican enthusiasm foretells a painful election night for Democrats who thought they were immune to the coming wave.

We need look no farther than the Democrats’ spending strategy to see the extent of their problems. As Republicans continue to push the borders of the playing field, the DCCC and its allies are forced to spend money in races they expected would be locked up weeks ago. Even more troubling for Democrats is the fact that many of these races are even competitive in the first place. With the NRCC on offense against unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen has described his party’s challenge as playing a game of ‘Whac-a-Mole.’ The DCCC has scrambled to follow the NRCC into many of these districts to play defense in an unsuccessful effort to stop the bleeding.

The national environment has presented the extraordinary opportunity for Republicans to capture the majority, but the NRCC’s record-setting fundraising has allowed us to capitalize and remain on offense. The NRCC raised $11.2 million in September 2010 alone — its best fundraising month since 2006. We followed that effort by outraising the DCCC once again in the first half of October. While the NRCC is successfully executing a plan to spend $54 million in approximately 90 races, Republican candidates are turning in stellar fundraising performances as well. The Hotline calculates that 34 of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats were outraised by their Republican challengers last quarter. The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.

Democrats are message-less. There is no longer enough time for them to coalesce behind a message that resonates with middle class voters. Instead, they have desperately turned to attacking outside organizations who dare oppose their anti-business views. Democrats had no complaints when their liberal allies were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on their behalf in the 2006 and 2008 elections. They also conveniently neglect to mention the fact that labor unions continue to outspend conservative groups as well. With their hypocritical attempts to distract voters with scare tactics and side topics, Democrats are only reinforcing voters’ perception that they have absolutely no plan to create jobs. Their message should be taken for what it is: Democrats are laying the groundwork for a massive Election Night loss and they are in need of scapegoat. Unfortunately, reality doesn’t match their rhetoric.

With the playing field much more balanced over the closing weeks of the campaign, Democrats are forced to defend their unpopular agenda in Washington — a fight they know they can’t win. The final unemployment numbers before election day that were announced earlier this month confirmed that Democrats will be held accountable by voters for their reckless job-killing policies. Last week’s state-by-state unemployment numbers reinforced that reality from coast to coast. As Americans are desperately seeking leadership in Washington that is willing to address a struggling economy, Democrats pushed forward with a radical big-government spending agenda that stood in the way of economic recovery and only made matters worse. Though many vulnerable Democrats are running away from this record on the campaign trail, the American people will not soon forget about this binge of unprecedented spending at the expense of a healthy economy.

Make no mistake: Nancy Pelosi’s days as Speaker of the House are numbered. Thanks to nearly two years of hard work on the campaign front and a renewed commitment to listening to the American people, Republicans are poised for a significant victory on November 2. With just days to go until Election Day, we are faced with a historic opportunity to take control of Congress away from Nancy Pelosi and put a stop to the Democrats’ reckless job-killing agenda. Republicans intend to seize this opportunity.

The National Republican Congressional Committee debuts 27 new ads this morning, in the following districts: AL-2, AZ-1, FL-2, GA-2, GA-8, HI-1, IN-2, IN-9, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MO-4, MN-1, MS-1, NM-1, NM-2, NC-7, ND-AL, OH-18, PA-12, SC-5, TN-4, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WA-3.

Slackers.

UPDATE: Perhaps I’m more cynical than your average voter, but I particularly enjoy ads that contend, “Yes, the opposition is every bit as corrupt, self-serving and drunk with power as you may suspect.”

This one hitting Bobby Bright in Alabama is pretty good:

I like the variety of misdeeds detailed in this ad hitting Sanford Bishop in Georgia:

Finally, this one hitting Colleen Hanabusa in Hawaii:

Over on the home page, I have a chat with Brian Walsh, the political director of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

A lot of grassroots folks have a lot of gripes with the national party committees, but I think the NRCC has performed pretty solidly this cycle. They have, for the large part, not intervened in primaries. In an earlier interview, Walsh told me that every seat is winnable and there’s a winnable race for every candidate; he aims to match up the right candidate with the right race. Ohio businessman Tom Ganley was set to make an expensive and perhaps divisive primary bid against Rob Portman in that state’s GOP Senate primary this cycle; he was ultimately convinced that he would make a strong candidate against Betty Sutton in the state’s 13th congressional district.

By and large, this is a great class of GOP challengers; having said that, a lot of Republican candidates are going to win on Election Night because of what their Democratic opponents did, not because they ran great campaigns. Then again, there’s a strong argument that this is how Democrats built their majorities in 2006 and 2008.

I’m sure a lot of folks will argue that the national committee has botched it royally by not supporting their preferred candidate enough; the NRCC is facing a situation where they have many, many competitive races — 80 to 90, perhaps 100 — and only a certain amount of cash to go around. I asked Walsh if he would rather have 40 races where he felt really confident about the GOP’s chances than 80 races where he felt pretty good but closer to 50/50, and he said yes.

Some might find that philosophy a bit cautious in a good environment, but others might see it as a good example of prioritization. If Republicans don’t win back the House in this anti-Democrat, anti-Washington atmosphere, their efforts will be called a failure, and probably deservedly so. If they win the House by two seats, some of us might be disappointed, but it would still mean the end of Speaker Pelosi. If they win control of the House by 20 seats, then that extra bit of NRCC help in those longer-shot races might have been superfluous.

Legendary college football coach Lou Holtz offers a message on behalf of the NRCC:

We are late into the fourth quarter of the midterm elections and the NRCC needs your immediate help to drive our Republican Party to Victory. In case you don’t recognize me, my name is Lou Holtz and if my 40 years coaching college football taught me anything, it’s how to spot a winning team.

And I’m writing to tell you — Quarterbacked by John Boehner and Pete Sessions — our Republican Party has an excellent team of limited government, pro-freedom individuals ready to take the field in Washington and defeat the other team’s liberal agenda.But they can’t find the End Zone without your support. With less than 28 days left until the election your support is needed. It may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.

You see, despite the slew of positive polls and media reports on our Party’s terrific chance to recapture the U.S. House majority, the truth is the ball is still on the 20-yard line with plenty of time left on the clock.

And the other team is fierce. They will say or spend anything to get another four downs to spend our money and strip away our freedoms that have made America a beacon of hope for 234 years.

My friend, YOU are the NRCC’s 12th man and they urgently need your help to win every U.S. House seat possible, fire Nancy Pelosi, and elect a Republican to the Speaker’s chair this November.Please join me and help them by making a generous contribution of $39, $1 dollar for every seat needed create a NEW Republican Majority. Your support may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.Thank you.

Sincerely,

Lou Holtz, 

Hall of Fame Coach 

Ironically, after the e-mail ended, he continued, “You’re talking about one poll. One [darn] poll. The guy was not — was not a good congressman last year! He was very disappointing. We’re talking about the best congressmen, not who had the best day! Not who’s played the weakest [darn] schedule! Who the heck have the Democrats played?”

[Slight language warning in this clip.]

UPDATE: Speaking of college football, in Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher argues that the job-creation record compiled by him and Ted Strickland is comparable to Woody Hayes’s “three yards and a cloud of dust.”

Republican Rob Portman observes the state has lost 400,000 jobs in the past four years. Perhaps Fisher meant “three yards, a fumble, and the defense runs it back the distance for six points.”