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Tags: NRSC

Michelle Obama: Obamacare, Gun Control Require a Democratic Senate



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In the interest of fairness, Michelle Obama taped some remarks to help the National Republican Senatorial Committee yesterday.

Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes was among the female candidates who gathered with the first lady for a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraiser, where Obama spoke of the need to elect more Democratic senators to further the president’s agenda.

The first lady, talking about how narrowly “Obamacare” had passed and the slim margin by which gun control legislation was defeated, said that “it is critical that we elect Michelle Nunn, Alison Grimes, Natalie Tennant.”

“It is critical that we get them to the Senate,” she said. “And it is just as critical that we elect — re-elect — Senators Mary Kay Hagan, Mary Landrieu, Jeanne Shaheen. It is critical, because we all know that it’s not enough to elect Barack Obama president if we don’t give him a Congress that will help him keep moving this country forward. We know that now. We’ve seen it. We’ve experienced it.”

By emphasizing to voters in Kentucky, Georgia, and West Virginia that a vote for the Democratic candidate is a vote for Obamacare and gun control, Michelle Obama has greatly assisted GOP efforts to retain and/or win those seats. Thank you, Michelle Obama, for your efforts above and beyond the call of duty to assist GOP efforts to retake control of the Senate.

Tags: NRSC , DSCC , Michelle Obama , Obamacare

NRSC: Obama’s Job Rating Is Lower in Michigan Than in Some Red States



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee is feeling optimistic about next year’s open-seat Senate race in Michigan. From a new memo by Ward Baker, NRSC political director:

If someone would have told me a year ago that the Michigan Senate seat would be in play in 2014 I would have encouraged them to seek professional help. I would have said that there’s no way, in a mid-term election with so many Senate seats in play, in states that President Obama lost by double digits, we would be focused on a state that Mitt Romney lost by nine points.
What a difference a year makes.
Michigan has undergone dramatic shifts in public opinion over the last twelve months. Nowhere is that shift more pronounced than in President Obama’s favorability. On Election Day 2012, Obama enjoyed a 57% fav-41% unfav image among Michigan voters, and took 54% of the vote. Today, his image has dropped to one-to-one (48%-46%) in the latest EPIC-MRA poll.
More critical, President Obama’s job performance rating is worse in Michigan than it is in some of the red states, with six-in-ten giving him a negative score (39% positive-60% negative). And, in a mid-term where Obama will not be on the ballot himself, it will be his job and not his likability that will have the most down-ballot influence.
At the same time, voters in the state are becoming less positive about the direction of the country under Obama (28% right direction-59% wrong track, was 31%-57% in May), and more positive about the direction of Michigan under a Republican Governor (42% right direction-42% wrong track, was 40%-46% in May). All this might explain why Sen. Carl Levin — who everyone assumes would have been a shoo-in for re-election — announced six months ago that he would not seek another term in the Senate.
Almost immediately, Rep. Gary Peters threw his hat in the ring. The same Gary Peters who has already been rejected statewide by Michigan voters once. The same Gary Peters who is virtually unknown by the majority of the state. The same Gary Peters who stood by idly, offering no hope and no vision, while Detroit — which he represents — literally went bankrupt.
National Democrats tripped over themselves to unite behind Peters’ lackluster candidacy, and have spent the better part of the last months trying to convince everyone, including themselves, that he’s a top tier candidate.
But the truth shall set you free, and the truth is that the environment is turning away from Democrats in Michigan. The truth is the majority of Michigan doesn’t have a clue who Gary Peters is. The truth is the few people in Michigan who actually do know who Gary Peters is are terribly unenthusiastic about his candidacy. But don’t take my word for it. One recent poll showed Gary Peters’ image is 18% fav-10% unfav, with over half not recognizing his name (55% never heard of).
By comparison, the Republican Terri Lynn Land has won statewide in Michigan. Twice. Land is better known and liked (28% fav-10% unfav) than her opponent, and performs extremely well on the ballot in multiple polls. She is within a point on the EPIC-MRA poll, leads in the recent Mitchell Poll from August (up from being tied in March), Denno Research has them currently tied, in March Harper Polling took a glance at the race and had Land up by eight (though Land and Peters both in the 20s at that point), and even PPP shows Land within striking distance.
With six polls showing this race is tight, President Obama’s popularity and approval plummeting, and the fact that most Michigan voters don’t have a clue who Gary Peters is, Michigan is one more state where Democrats will be on defense and Republicans will be on offense. It’s one more state (along with Kentucky, Georgia, Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina and South Dakota) where Democrats will be forced to spend millions to try and drag a lackluster candidate across the finish line. A daunting task made even more daunting given the fact that the DSCC is already drowning in debt.
Michigan is in play, and the Democrat majority is in serious jeopardy.

We should note that while Levin’s retirement may reflect concerns about poll numbers, it may also reflect that he’s 79 years old and has served six terms. The polling numbers are intriguing, though, and one has to wonder if Detroit will continue to be a reliable trove of votes for Democrats as the city’s quality of life continues to deteriorate. Also note that Governor Rick Snyder, a Republican, has a healthy lead in his bid for reelection. Perhaps a wholescale urban economic disaster has scrambled the traditional political calculus in this state.

Tags: NRSC , Michigan , Terri Lynn Land , Gary Peters

NRSC: Hey, Look at What Folks Are Saying About Akin!



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The NRSC is not exactly quiet about its desire to see Todd Akin withdraw and another candidate, one not damaged by a horrific statement that implies he believes that there are “legitimate” rapes and not legitimate ones, to take his place.

Among the comments the NRSC is spotlighting this morning:

  • Radio/TV Host Sean Hannity urged Akin yesterday to reconsider running and reminded him that “elections are bigger than one person
  • Radio Host Mark Levin similarly urged Akin to step aside saying this race is far too important to risk losing to the Democrats.
  • National Review’s Jim Geraghty observes, Who Isn’t Calling for Akin’s Withdrawal? Claire McCaskill & Planned Parenthood.
  • Columnist/Radio Host Dennis Prager penned a column for Townhall.com calling on his fellow pro-life leaders to join him in disavowing Akin’s remarks.
  • Columnist Charles Krauthammer on Fox News last night called Akintoxic” and said “he’s got to go
  • Radio Host Hugh Hewitt tweeted — “If Akin drops out and GOP wins Senate, he has career. If he stays in and GOP doesn’t win Senate, infamy and injury to prolife cause
  • Author Ann Coulter penned a column in Human Events calling on Akin to do the right thing and step aside for the good of the pro-life movement
  • National Review editorial board called on Akin to step aside, writing in part, “Akin is a stalwart conservative and an honorable man, we regret to say that he inspires no such confidence”
  • Wall Street Journal editorial board also called on Akin to step aside, writing in part, “Having uttered one of the more offensive and ill-informed comments in recent years, Mr. Akin could cost his party a seat it is favored to win this November and thus possible control of the Senate.”
  • The Tea Party Express called on Akin to step aside saying “It is critical that we defeat Senator Claire McCaskill in November, but it will be too difficult to achieve that with Todd Akin as the conservative alternative.”

RINOs!

Tags: NRSC , Todd Akin

Happy Three-Year Anniversary, Stimulus.



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee reminds us that the stimulus passed three years ago today, in a web video that represents a beautiful example of using lawmakers’ own boasts and promises against them:

Among the quotes that Obama and Senate Democrats might regret:

Barack Obama: “If I don’t have this done in three years, then this will be a one term proposition.”

Obama boasting he instructed his advisers to “conduct a rigorous analysis of this plan and come up with projections of how many jobs it will create . . .” (while showing the difference between the projections and actual unemployment rate). This will “immediately jump-start job creation as well as long term economic growth . . .”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio): “This stimulus package is just right.”

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.): “We did the stimulus, we did what has been, by the way, wildly successful.”

Obama, laughing: “Shovel-ready wasn’t as shovel-ready as we expected.”

Tags: Barack Obama , Claire McCaskill , NRSC , Sherrod Brown , Stimulus

NRSC: Why Is New Yorker Bob Kerrey Thinking of a Nebraska Run?



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee would like to remind Nebraskans that Bob Kerrey, currently contemplating a bid to return to the Senate, has been living in New York for the past decade.

With Ben Nelson suddenly retiring, Democrats are desperate for a Senate candidate . . . and they might be willing to plumb the depths of the free-agent market, so to speak.

Tags: Bob Kerrey , NRSC

NRSC Reminds Us of Democrats’ ‘Welcome to the Recovery’ Comments



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee marks the one-year anniversary of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s “Welcome to the Recovery,” op-ed, as well as a slew of other comments from President Obama, Harry Reid, Claire McCaskill, Jay Carney, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, in a new web video:

Tags: Claire McCaskill , Harry Reid , NRSC , President Obama

NRSC Picks Up Candidate From Zaniest Major-Party Campaign in 2010



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Okay, okay, Carly Fiorina is joining the team at the National Republican Senatorial Committee . . .

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) today announced that businesswoman and civic leader Carly Fiorina will join the organization as a Vice Chair for the 2012 election cycle.

Serving alongside Cornyn and NRSC Vice Chairman U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Fiorina will amplify Senate Republicans’ focus on healing America’s troubled economy, and assist with the NRSC’s crucial fundraising efforts in support of a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate.

“I’m pleased to welcome my friend Carly Fiorina to the NRSC team, where her many business and civic achievements will make her an invaluable leader and fundraiser during this critical election cycle,” Senator Cornyn said today.  “I look forward to working with Carly to elect strong Republican Senators who will finally put a stop to President Obama’s failed tax-and-spend agenda, and instead promote the economic growth and job creation Americans so badly need.”

Former Chairman and CEO of HP and one of the most recognized business leaders in the world, Carly Fiorina has consistently championed competitiveness, innovation, job creation and economic growth.  She has been politically active, serving as Republican Victory Chair supporting John McCain’s presidential run, and most recently challenging four-term California Senator Barbara Boxer in her own first-time political candidacy.

“The Senate sets the legislative agenda for the nation.  I am proud to work alongside Chairman Cornyn, Vice Chairman Hatch and all Republican Senators to restore a Republican majority in 2012,” said Fiorina.  “Republicans in the Senate will provide job creators the opportunities and environment they need to grow our economy, decentralize power out of Washington, and restore fiscal accountability.”

. . . but the big question is, will she bring Demonsheep with her?

Tags: Carly Fiorina , NRSC

NRSC: ‘Actions Speak Louder Than Words, Mr. President.’



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee is responsible for the content of this brutal kick to the solar plexus in video form:

Dare I say this is the Chuck Norris of party committee created web videos?

Tags: Barack Obama , NRSC

Finally, Combining ‘Hydrochloro-Bullhockey with Lithium-Di-Yeswecan.’



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Wow. The NRSC continues to hit it out of the park on their web videos — funny, and hitting the target really hard.

This car commercial-style ad salutes the government research that discovered the most readily available natural resource known to man: hot air, which consists of “hydrochloro-bullhockey with lithium-di-yeswecan.”

It “can power the Democrats to raise the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,” and spotlights some quotes from Obama and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.) suggesting they’re not all that upset about high energy prices.

Tags: Barack Obama , Claire McCaskill , NRSC

NRSC: We’re Doing Quite Well for an Off Year



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee has their best off-year fund raising month since 2005:

Receipts for March 2011:              $5.0 M

Receipts Cycle-To-Date for 2011:               $11.2 M

(compared to $9.6 M by March 2009, and $6.9 M by March 2007)

Cash-on-Hand:                               $1,482,301

Debt:                                $2,750,000   (down from $6.5 million in January and lowest of the six campaign committees) 

“Since Senator Cornyn assumed the chairmanship in 2009, his finance goals for the NRSC have been three-fold — to be careful stewards of our donors’ money, to continue to close the fundraising gap with Senate Democrats and to ensure that not a single Republican candidate loses on Election Day because of a lack of financial resources.  The NRSC met, and exceeded, those goals last cycle, and while we’re still up against a Senate Democrat majority and the Fundraiser-In-Chief in the White House, we are committed to building on that success and winning back the majority next year.” 

– Rob Jesmer, NRSC Executive Director

I took a look at the cheery prospects for Republicans running for Senate this cycle here.

Tags: NRSC

Democrats Lacking Top-Tier Challengers In Most Senate Races



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It’s obviously early in the 2012 cycle, but the good news for Republican chances to retake the Senate is that they already have big-name, experienced candidates gearing up in just about every state that is expected to feature a competitive race. Democrats are gradually increasing their numbers, but some members of their party are already worrying about slow recruitment: Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., wants members of his party to stop waiting for recovering Rep. Gabby Giffords and begin a Senate bid sometime in the next month.

The biggest name isn’t always the best name; just ask Floridians about their Senate primary last year. But an early entry by a popular House member or lawmaker who has already won statewide helps put Republicans’ minds at ease; they can rest assured that barring some surprise twist – like, say, Christine O’Donnell beating Mike Castle in Delaware! – they’ll at least have strong enough candidates in place to make the Democrats earn any Senate wins this year. If you put as many good candidates in as many states as possible, you’re in position to maximize your wins if your party has the wind at its back on Election Day.

First, in the four seats of the retiring Senate Democrats…

Daniel Akaka of Hawaii: Right now, former Rep. Ed Case and State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim are in on the Democrats’ side. The GOP outlook depends heavily on the interest of former two-term Gov. Linda Lingle.

Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico: Democrats have their big name, Rep. Martin Heinrich, with a few other state officials making noises. The GOP has former Rep. Heather Wilson, as well as a few others.

Kent Conrad of North Dakota: Republicans have Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, who is currently the only candidate who has filed papers.

Jim Webb of Virginia: Republicans have former Governor and Sen. George Allen as well as Jamie Radtke and a few other local figures; Democrats have former Gov. and DNC Chair Tim Kaine.

Elsewhere, 16 Democrat incumbents are currently seeking reelection in 2012. Republicans do not yet have prominent challengers to Dianne Feinstein of California, Tom Carper of Delaware, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin. (There’s some speculation that Kohl might retire.) Republicans are still looking for a top-tier candidate to run for the open seat in Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman is retiring. Of course, in a presidential year, most of those states will be difficult territory even for a strong GOP candidate, with the possible exceptions of West Virginia and Wisconsin.

The states with Democrat incumbents and at least one promising GOP challenger:

Bill Nelson of Florida: Republicans have several candidates, depending on how broadly you define, ‘big-name’: Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos, former state Rep. Adam Hasner and former Sen. George LeMieux.

Debbie Stabenow of Michigan: Former Michigan GOP chair Saul Anuzis and Secretary of State Terri Lee Land are considering bids.

Claire McCaskill of Missouri: The GOP options include former state senator and state treasurer Sarah Steelman, as well as former congressional candidate Ed Martin.

Jon Tester of Montana: Rep. Denny Rehberg, who has won multiple times statewide (since his congressional district is the state).

Ben Nelson of Nebraska: Two big names for Republicans: State Attorney General Jon Bruning, state Treasurer Don Stenberg.

Sherrod Brown of Ohio: At least two promising options for Republicans: State Treasurer Josh Mandel and former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania: Obviously not an easy state for Republicans, but if Dicks Sporting Goods CEO Ed Stack is serious about his interest, the he would have the financial resources to give Casey a real race.

There are several states where the GOP chances of victory are pretty small, but they’ve still got interest from a promising candidate or two:

Ben Cardin of Maryland: Obviously a tough state even in non-presidential years, but one of the GOP candidates is Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Eric Wargotz. You may scoff at his 36 percent in last year’s Senate race against Barbara Mikulski, but that’s the highest share of the vote any Republican has gotten against her since 1986.

Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: None so far, although local Republicans are hoping to see a Michele Bachmann bid.

Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island: He’s not a ‘big name,’ but keep an eye on entrepreneur Barry Hinkley, founder of the software firm Bullhorn.

Bernie Sanders of Vermont: Obviously, this is a very tough seat for the GOP to win, but they have a promising candidate in state Auditor of Accounts Tom Salmon.

Three Republicans are retiring and creating open seat races:

Jon Kyl of Arizona: Republicans have Rep. Jeff Flake, who so far enjoys the field to himself. No Democrat has filed papers; obviously, many Democrats are yearning for a bid by Gabrielle Giffords. Rep. Ed Pastor is reportedly thinking it over.

John Ensign of Nevada: Both parties are likely to nominate an incumbent U.S. House member: Republicans have Rep. Dean Heller; Democrats have Rep. Shelly Berkley.

Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas: Republicans have a small army of candidates: Former state solicitor general Ted Cruz, former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, current Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, and former secretary of state Roger Williams.

As revealed this weekend, Texas Democrats are likely to nominate retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez.

Finally, at this point, seven Senate Republicans are seeking re-election; none of them have attracted what most would consider a “top tier” challenger.

Dick Lugar of Indiana: He’s likely to face a tougher challenge in the GOP primary from Richard Mourdock. For the Democrats, there has been talk that Rep. Joe Donnelly may run for Senate, particularly with his House district’s new lines looking less favorable to him. But Donnelly is reportedly also mulling a gubernatorial bid. So far, no Democrats have filed for this race.

Olympia Snowe of Maine: Like Lugar, she has primary opponents already (Scott D’Ambrose and Andrew Ian Dodge) but no Democrat opponent yet.

Scott Brown of Massachusetts: Right now, the biggest-name challenger for the Democrats is Robert Massie, who ran for Lieutenant Governor in 1994. Several members of the state’s House delegation have been mentioned as potential candidates, but none have filed papers yet.

Roger Wicker of Mississippi: No Democrats have filed for the seat yet. 

Bob Corker of Tennessee: No Democrats have filed for the seat yet.       

Orrin Hatch of Utah: The only Democrat who has filed for the seat is Chris Stout, a Salt Lake City accountant.

John Barrasso of Wyoming: No Democrats have filed for the seat yet.  

Tags: NRSC , Senate Democrats , Senate Republicans

NRSC Says Tim Kaine Is a Leader, Sort Of



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The National Republican Senatorial Committee prepares the ground for a Tim Kaine senatorial bid, with a pretty funny web ad:

 

The expectation has been that Kaine would run since Webb announced his retirement last month. And yet, Kaine is, at least publicly, still thinking about it.

Recall my theory. At least some part of Tim Kaine doesn’t want to run for Senate.

Maybe he finds the job of running the DNC too… cheery?

Tags: NRSC , Tim Kaine

Happy Anniversary, Stimulus. Look What You’ve Done in Two Years.



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Today is the two-year anniversary of the stimulus bill becoming law, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a one-minute web ad spotlighting the claims of the senators who voted for it and how their states are doing. It’s quite well done, I would argue:
 

I know, I know, “things would be worse without it,” and “it’s saved or created a hillion jillion bazillion jobs,” and “we’re about to enjoy a Recovery Summer Fall Winter Spring,” and so on. Yawn.

I expect you’ll see a lot of ads in this vein over the next two years.

I would note, though, that perhaps the NRSC shouldn’t complain too much about the stimulus; after all, it did create a lot of new jobs for aspiring Republican senators.

UPDATE: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida adds these words:

The stimulus didn’t fail because of bad intentions. The stimulus failed because government doesn’t create private sector jobs. U.S. senators don’t create jobs. Regulatory agencies don’t create jobs. Jobs are created by everyday people from all walks of life that start a new business or expand an existing business. The job of government is to make it easier for them to do that — not harder. And growing our debt, it makes it harder on them to do that. It makes it harder on them to do that because it dries up the availability of money that people can invest in the private sector. It makes it harder because, ultimately, it makes people afraid the future is going to include higher taxes, and higher taxes are not a stimulus generator.

The reality is, the stimulus package set us backwards, not forwards. And I hope that we never repeat that mistake again.

The most important thing we can do here in Washington, D.C., to help grow our economy is to be helpful to the people that grow the economy — the everyday people from all walks of life who have a dream and pursue it by starting a business and employing others. We need to make it easier for them to do that by getting control of runaway, excessive, and quite frankly, sometimes ridiculous regulations. We need to get a hold of this debt crisis that faces our country and that threatens our future. And we need to give people a simple, sane, fair and affordable tax code.  These are the things I campaigned on. These are the things that I’ll work for as a United States Senator. I look forward to working with all of you and make all of this a reality. Thank you all. May God bless all of you, and may God bless our country, the United States of America.

Tags: NRSC

Californians Will Hear More of Robert Davi’s Ominous Narration



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The NRSC’s $2 million coordinated ad buy with the Fiorina campaign begins with this one:

The NRSC chuckles, “this represents roughly $2 million more dollars than national Democrats have put behind their candidates in Ohio, New Hampshire, Indiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Iowa, and Florida — all races that Democrats were all too happy to talk about just a few months ago.”

Tags: Barbara Boxer , Carly Fiorina , NRSC

NRSC: We Will Win in November, Far and Wide



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From a very confident memo from the NRSC:

Every Republican incumbent running for reelection will win, as there is not a single state in which an incumbent Republican nominee is facing a substantial threat: In Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, incumbent Republicans hold commanding double-digit leads.

We also strongly expect to hold every Republican open seat. The national Democrats have ceded New Hampshire, Kansas, Utah and Ohio – and they are spending no money in these races. The Republican nominees in each of these races hold a commanding double-digit lead over their Democrat opponents:

In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte leads liberal Paul Hodes by 10 points, 48.5 percent to 38.5 percent. In Kansas, Jerry Moran leads by more than 40 points. Mike Lee leads in Utah by over 25 points. And in Ohio, Rob Portman leads failed jobs czar Lee Fisher by 12 points, 50.3 percent to 38.3 percent.

In Alaska, Joe Miller appears to be holding a significant lead over both his opponents, and we expect him to win on Election Day.

As for Florida, Marco Rubio has opened a commanding lead as political opportunist Charlie Crist and liberal Kendrick Meek fight for over the Democrat electorate. While the national Democrats have left Kendrick Meek out to dry, all the while going out of their way not to agitate Charlie Crist, the NRSC has spent $2.5 in coordinated funds in September to help boost Marco. Although we expect the race to narrow, we will win.

That leaves Kentucky and Missouri as the only two states the national Democrats are seriously investing in.

In Missouri, despite the national Democrats spending over $3 million to smear Roy Blunt with baseless attacks, Blunt continues to lead Robin Carnahan. Considering President Obama lost Missouri at the peak of his popularity in 2008, despite massively outspending Senator McCain, it’s no wonder Robin Carnahan has consistently trailed Roy Blunt in the polls since January.

In Kentucky, Dr. Rand Paul holds consistent leads over Louisville liberal trial lawyer Jack Conway. Just as in Missouri, our Republican nominee soundly rejects the costly, unpopular Obama agenda while the Democrat candidate enthusiastically embraces ObamaCare and the failed stimulus. Kentucky voted overwhelmingly for John McCain in 2008 and there’s no doubt the Bluegrass State will send Rand Paul to the Senate to work side-by-side with Leader McConnell to stop the Obama agenda.

Guess they don’t put much stock in that poll showing Murkowski only a few percentage points behind Joe Miller in Alaska. Moving on to the Democrat-held seats:

John Hoeven will win North Dakota. In Indiana, despite Brad Ellsworth running as “Sheriff” Ellsworth, Hoosiers know him as Nancy Pelosi’s loyal deputy who supported ObamaCare and the failed stimulus. Dan Coats currently has a 16-point lead and will go on to victory. Finally, the national Democrats will have abandoned their incumbent Agriculture Committee Chairwoman, Senator Blanche Lincoln, who is trailing by nearly 25 points according to the latest polls. The numbers above and below are based on the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Illinois – Mark Kirk (R) 40%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39.3%

We expect this race to be competitive to the end, but are confident Mark Kirk will defeat failed mob banker Alexi Giannoulias. While this is one of the few places President Obama remains above water in job approval, albeit slightly, one-party Democrat rule has led to corruption and scandal, and Illinois voters are in no mood to send another shady character to represent them.

Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey (R) 46.9%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%

The Democrats have spent over $3 million attacking Pat Toomey and he is in better shape today than he was a month ago. Because of the nature of the state, we think this race will be competitive to the end, but we will win.

Wisconsin – Ron Johnson (R) 52.3%, Russ Feingold 43.3%

Few Democrats would have expected Wisconsin to be such a strong pickup opportunity for Republicans this fall, but as President Obama’s approval rating plummeted in the state and voters began to scrutinize 18-year incumbent Russ Feingold’s record, businessman Ron Johnson’s strong campaign has consistently picked up steam. We will provide Ron Johnson with whatever help he needs to maintain his lead over Feingold and win on November 2nd.

Colorado – Ken Buck (R) 49.5%, Michael Bennet (D) 43%

Despite being outspent by Governor Ritter’s appointed Senator Michael Bennet, Ken Buck is poised to win in Colorado. Coloradans recognize that Michael Bennet rubberstamped President Obama’s failed stimulus, was the deciding vote in favor of ObamaCare, and recklessly gambled away taxpayer money as head of Denver Public Schools. The NRSC will invest whatever means necessary to help Ken Buck win.

West Virginia – John Raese (R) 47%, Joe Manchin (D) 44.5%

Democrats expected liberal Governor Joe Manchin to waltz to victory in the Mountain State, but as voters continue to learn the difference between ‘West Virginia Joe Manchin,’ and ‘Washington Joe Manchin’ — who eagerly supports ObamaCare and the failed stimulus — businessman John Raese continues to surge.

Nevada – Harry Reid (D) 44.6%, Sharron Angle (R) 43.2%

Sharron Angle continues to run neck-and-neck with embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. We fully expect this race to come down to the wire, and while Sharron Angle continues to raise massive sums of money, the NRSC will devote whatever resources necessary to maximize Angle’s chance of defeating Reid.

Connecticut – Dick Blumenthal (D) 49.5%, Linda McMahon (R) 45.5%

Linda McMahon has taken perpetual liar Dick Blumenthal’s lead from 41 points this January, to a mere 4 points today. These polls were recently validated by the DSCC’s decision to purchase media last week in an attempt to defend Blumenthal. Clearly, national Democrats weren’t planning on spending money in a state so handily won by President Obama in 2008.

California – Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 41.3%

Carly Fiorina has withstood the initial attacks by Senator Boxer and is still within striking distance. More importantly, Boxer continues to be mired in the mid-to-upper forties, an ominous sign for a 28-year incumbent. The NRSC just provided Carly’s campaign with $2 million in coordinated funding and we hope to do more as this campaign enters the home stretch.

Washington State – Patty Murray (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 46.7%

While the DC Democratic intelligencia see fit to celebrate Patty Murray’s movement, serious analysts should note that Republicans have only begun to prosecute our case against the 18-year incumbent. The NRSC is prepared to invest millions in this race to help elect Dino Rossi and hold Senator Murray accountable for her long record of higher spending, higher taxes and bigger government.

Delaware – Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 37.3%

This is a tough blue state for Republicans, but even in Delaware polls show unease with the Democrats’ reckless spending and health care spending bill. Christine O’Donnell raised more money in one week than Chris Coons did in over six months. We expect her to be on the air soon and her war chest has already forced the DSCC to spend their scarce cash in Coons’ defense.

Summary

The NRSC began September with a nearly $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage over our Democrat counterparts . . . Even when you take national party money out of the picture, our candidates hold a massive $14.7 million fundraising advantage so far over their Democrat opponents . . . Finally, the political environment clearly favors Republicans more heavily today than it did Democrats in 2006 and 2008: Independent voters prefer Republican candidates by a double-digit margin; Republican voters are 20 percent more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats; our candidates and the NRSC have a significant cash advantage. Given the hard facts, the onus is on Democrats to explain why — and how — their candidates can win with just 29 days until the election.

Tags: 2010 , NRSC

‘Prove Them Wrong.’



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Hey, look who’s in the new NRSC web video: Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Joe Miller, Linda McMahon — Tea Party, establishment, they’re all there.

It’s all in, which is a good metaphor for this cycle. Push your chips to the middle of the table.

Tags: NRSC

Now We Know When the Recovery Starts.



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This is another pretty darn good web video from the NRSC — not as good as their last one, asking who the extremists really are, but still pretty good.

The tag-lines are the double whammy:

How was your summer?

The recovery starts November 2.

Tags: Barack Obama , NRSC

NRSC, Joe Miller Readying For Joint Singalong of ‘Kumbaya’



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“Kumbaya, my Lord… Kumbaya…”

 

AK attorney Joe Miller may not be thrilled with the NRSC, but the party committee is spending money to prove Miller’s candidacy isn’t doomed if he prevails over Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).

A new survey conducted for the NRSC shows Miller leading Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) by a 52%-36% margin. And other metrics in the Last Frontier skew the race heavily in Miller’s favor, even after other surveys show he begins his race as an unpopular contender.

Fully 57% say they want a GOPer to provide a check and balance over Pres. Obama, while only 33% want a Dem to help pass the WH agenda. Obama’s job approval ratings clock in at just 40%, while 53% disapprove.

“Someone’s polling, my Lord… Kumbaya…. “

Tags: Joe Miller , NRSC

NRSC Has $21 Million on Hand; 20 Competitive Senate Races This Year?



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After the early backing of Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist, the National Republican Senatorial Committee caught a great deal of well-earned grief this cycle.

But they’re also starting to catch fire.

Below are the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) July 2010 fundraising numbers, which were filed with the FEC this month.

Receipts for July – $4.16 million

Receipts Cycle-to-Date – $72.5 million

Disbursements – $2.6 million

Cash-On-Hand – $21.1 million

Debt – $0

In reporting on these developments, please consider the following statement from NRSC Executive Director Rob Jesmer:

“The NRSC is well-positioned to help ensure that our candidates have the resources to win in November. Republicans are now on offense in at least 12 Democrat-held Senate seats and the wind is at our backs moving towards November as more Americans stand up and demand checks-and-balances in Washington.”  – Rob Jesmer, NRSC Executive Director

Looking at the list of potentially competitive races, we see:

GOP needs to protect incumbents in: Louisiana, North Carolina.

GOP needs to protect seats held by retiring Republicans in: Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio.

GOP is trying to win seats held by retiring Democrats in: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia. *

GOP is trying to knock off Democrat incumbents in: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin.

I count 19; Jim Pethokoukis says he’s hearing about potentially 20 seats in play this year.

Hmm. In Oregon, Democrat incumbent Ron Wyden appears to be ahead by healthy margins, but is at 47, 45, 51, and 53 percent in the last four polls. Not exactly stunning numbers for a two-term incumbent who won with 64 percent last time.

* UPDATE: Or, you know, it could just be that I forgot Pennsylvania.

Tags: 2010 , NRSC

NRSC: ‘The Next Time Democrats Call You Extreme, Show Them This Video.’



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You see it here first, folks: the new web video from the NRSC about just whose views are “extreme” around here.

Their closing sequence, showcasing that the so-called extreme candidates are either leading or in dead heats, feels like a professional athlete responding to a trash-talker by pointing to the scoreboard.

Tags: 2010 , NRSC

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