Tags: Obama

Say, What Does That Water Gun Look Like?


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I know this is a bit silly, but isn’t it a bit weird to see the president at Camp David in June 2011, holding a water gun that appears to be modeled after the TEC-9 (or perhaps the TEC-22), a semiautomatic handgun with an extended magazine, the kind of weapon his allies would like to ban?

Yes, yes, no one was ever killed by a water gun, and so on.

The photo was spotlighted by the Washington Post’s Fact-Checker, attempting to find any corroboration of the president’s claim that he goes skeet-shooting at Camp David all the time.

As for the TEC-9, this bit of history is illuminating in light of the recent debate:

On September 13, 1994, a United States federal ban on assault firearms went into effect. This ban made it illegal to manufacture the TEC DC-9, but not illegal to own. Consequently, the weapon went through another redesign to comply with the new federal regulations. Intratec removed many of the “assault” features of the DC-9, such as: threaded barrel, barrel shroud and forward pistol grip. They also reduced the magazine size to 10 rounds, though it was still compatible with the same after-market high capacity magazines that were used by the TEC DC-9.

Tags: Guns , Obama

RNC: Obama Attacks Prove He Can’t Run on His Record


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The RNC greets Monday morning with an infographic . . .

One of the fascinating developments of this cycle is the near-bipartisan consensus that President Obama “can’t run on his record.” (Bob ShrumMaureen Dowd, John Cassidy of The New Yorker, ABC News’s Jake Tapper, and The Economist, for a few examples.)

So what we have is a widespread agreement that Obama’s record, by itself, does not warrant a second term . . . and yet the debate continues. But once both sides concur about the incumbent’s proven inability to improve the state of the nation . . . isn’t the debate effectively over?

Tags: Obama , RNC

Obama Message on the Times Poll: ‘They Re-Biased the Same Sample.’


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It’s entirely possible that the New York Times poll out this morning is an outlier, that subsequent polls will show the traditional gender gap returning, and so on. Don’t break out the party hats when you see a poll result you like, and don’t order the hemlock when you see a poll result you don’t like.

Having said all that, the argument from the Obama campaign is that the entire poll is erroneous, and that its results indicate nothing.

Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutter, drew the short straw this morning and had to argue that the poll’s finding that 67 percent think Obama announced his personal support of gay marriage for “political reasons” and only 24 percent think he did it because “he thinks it’s right” cannot be trusted.

If you want to argue that the divide is a bit closer, fine, but… here’s Cutter:

Chuck Todd: “This is such a resounding number, it’s within any margin of error you want to create… That’s a lot of people saying he did this for politics.”

Cutter: “We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased–”

Todd:  “You think this is so flawed, that this number–”

Cutter: “This is a biased sample.”

Todd: “This three to one margin is somehow going to shrink down the other way?”

Cutter: “I don’t want to go through methodology on your show. I think your readers – I think your viewers would be pretty bored by it.”

Todd: “They’re junkies. They like this stuff.”

Cutter: “They sampled a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample. I think that the results of that poll are probably pretty flawed.”

The argument is that because the Times went back to 562 of the 852 registered voter respondents they reached in April, it somehow doesn’t accurately represent the views of the electorate the way the preceding poll did. It’s possible that the 562 lean further to the right than the preceding sample. But because the Times provides the partisan breakdown of both samples, we know that the sample is essentially the same in partisan composition. It shifted from 26 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat, and 33 percent Independent (D+8) to 27 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat, and 34 percent Independent (D+8).

The sample of 562 is a bit smaller than one would like to see in a national poll, but it’s not wildly smaller than other national polls, and as the Times writes, “In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, results based on such samples of all adults will differ by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all American adults.”

The Times doesn’t break down its newer, smaller sample by race or age, so some might argue that the sample has too few African-Americans or young people. But for what it’s worth, the Times says they’ve taken that into account already: “Overall results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to geographic area, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age, education, marital status and number of adults in the household. Respondents in the landline sample were also weighted to take into account the number of telephone lines at their residence. This poll also included weights based on respondents’ party identification and their presidential vote preference from the earlier survey.”

In other words, like all polls, this one could be out of whack… but there’s nothing obviously wrong with the sample.

Tags: New York Times , Obama , Polling

Obama’s ‘All-of-the-Above’ Energy Plan Rejects Many Options


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USA Today:  “As public angst grows over gas prices, President Obama hits the road today in hopes of reinvigorating his argument that the USA must embrace a broad strategy to reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign oil.The two-day trip, which will take him to the Copper Mountain Solar Facility 1 in Nevada, oil and gas drilling sites on federal land in New Mexico and a segment of the Keystone XL pipeline in Oklahoma, is an opportunity for the president to highlight his “all-of-the-above” energy strategy, which calls for investment in clean energy and expanding domestic oil and gas production.”

No, Obama doesn’t have an all-of-the-above energy strategy.

To Obama’s credit, under his watch, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a license for two new nuclear reactors in Georgia. Of course, two new reactors are a drop in the bucket for our energy needs, as that was the first license issued since 1973.

Here in Virginia, the George Allen for Senate campaign is unveiling a gimmicky, but effective, web site that allows people to calculate how much more they have paid since Obama took office if gas had remained at the level of January 20, 2009, TooMuchAtThePump.com.

Then again, it just reminds me of this recent sight:

Tags: Gas Prices , Obama

Grim Poll Numbers for GOP, Awful Ones for Gingrich


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Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conduct the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, were just on with Chuck Todd on MSNBC’s Daily Rundown. They noted that in their latest poll, Barack Obama carries rural women — traditionally a Republican-leaning demographic — over Newt Gingrich.

South Carolina Republican women may be comfortable with Gingrich, but women elsewhere are not, it would seem.

In the MSNBC writeup on the poll, there is this ominous note:

“Gingrich is Goldwater,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “In the general election, Gingrich not only takes down his ship, he takes down the whole flotilla.”

There’s plenty of bad news for Republicans in the poll, as Romney does better, but not by a ton:

Women say they would vote for Obama over Gingrich by a wide 69-21 percent gap, far wider than the 54-38 percent difference by which Obama beats Romney. With independents, Gingrich gets just 28 percent against Obama, who wins with 52 percent. By contrast, Obama narrowly edges Romney with independents, 44 percent to 36 percent.

Tags: Mitt Romney , Newt Gingrich , Obama , Polling , Republicans

Obama: Let’s Escape Partisanship by Blaming Senate Republicans


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It’s nothing new, but there’s something striking about how easily and effortlessly Obama can blame partisanship and pointing fingers in one breath and then blame Republicans in the next, and never recognize any contradiction between the two actions.

Once you escape the partisanship and the political point-scoring in Washington, once you start really start listening to the American people, it’s pretty clear what our country and your leaders should be spending their time on. Jobs.

Moments later:

None of this matters to the Republicans in the Senate — because last week they got together to block this bill. They said no to putting teachers and construction workers back on the job. They said no to rebuilding our roads and our bridges and our airports. They said no to cutting taxes for middle-class families and small businesses when all they’ve been doing is cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans. They said no to helping veterans find jobs.

I take it the president will be taping attack ads against Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska, both Democrats who voted against his jobs bill.

Tags: Jobs , Obama , Senate Republicans

Two New Surveys Show Obama in Trouble With Latinos, Swing States


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I don’t think either of the survey results cited in Mike Allen’s Politico newsletter are really that surprising, considering the state of the economy, etc., but he calls them “sobering” for Democrats:

THIS CYCLE’S BIGGEST SURVEY OF LATINO VOTERS: Campaigns and party committees are getting confidential briefings on the findings of a bipartisan poll for Univision of 1,500 likely Latino voters, conducted by Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group (a Democratic firm) and Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group (Republican). About one-third of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, and the poll oversampled in CA, TX, FL, NV, NM and AZ. Playbook was provided an exclusive look at the findings:

–The research finds A SUBSTANTIAL HISPANIC SWING VOTE. Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction creates an opening for Republicans with Hispanics, and PERRY’S STANDING IN TEXAS REVEALS HOW WELL THE GOP CAN DO WITH LATINOS. 57% of those polled consider themselves Democrats, 19% Republican and 15% independent. But 43% call themselves conservative, 37% liberal and 20% moderate. Even 32% of Democrats call themselves conservatives!

–Get this: For SWING Latino voters, the top concern was “the federal gov’t in DC is wasting too much of our tax money,” just ahead of education, Medicare, deficit, “family values are in decline” and jobs. Their top issues mirror the top issues of other swing voters: “illegal immigration is out of control” was cited by 14%, compared with 17% for “politicians aren’t serious about real immigration reform” (participants could give multiple answers).

–The point to the campaigns is that Spanish-language ads can be run on the candidates’ primary message – it doesn’t have to be a separate Hispanic track. 30% of Latino swing voters watch mostly Spanish-language TV, and even English speakers consider candidates’ Spanish ads as “a sign that they respect the community.”

2) PURPLE POLL: Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs and business advisory firm, is out today with a survey putting Obama’s favorability rating at 41% in 12 swing states he carried in 2008 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin . . . 1 in 4 (24%) have a favorable view of Texas Governor Rick Perry, and his numbers are worse (19 %) among independents. Mitt Romney’s favorability was 32%. In a general election matchup, Obama is in a statistical dead heat with both (Romney 46%; Obama 43% . . . Obama 46%; Perry 44%). The survey shows Obama struggling in these crucial states, especially with independents and seniors.

“Sobering?” Well, let’s face it, perhaps the prospect of the president running for reelection after what feels like a four-year recession is driving them to drink . . .

And why the surprise that the top concerns of Hispanic swing voters mirror the top concerns of other swing voters?

Tags: 2012 , Obama , Polling

Hey, How About Filtering That Sample, ABC?


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In the ABC News poll out this morning: “In a head-to-head matchup among all adults, Obama leads Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota by an identical 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17. Closer, as noted, are Huckabee, who trails Obama by 50-44 percent; and Romney, who comes within a scant 4 points, with 45 percent to Obama’s 49.”

That’s among adults, where traditionally Democrats poll best. I wonder what the numbers look like among registered voters and among likely voters.

Also note: “Beyond the economy overall, and despite declining unemployment, more say the availability of jobs in their area is getting worse (37 percent) than better (26 percent). And most striking is the weight of rising prices: Seventy-eight percent of Americans say inflation is getting worse in their area, and nearly as many, 71 percent, continue to say the rising price of gasoline is causing them financial hardship (“serious” hardship for more than four in 10).

As noted, 57 percent now disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, matching the most of his career; 46 percent “strongly” disapprove, a new high and double the number of strong approvers.”

UPDATE: One other number jumps out at me as I peruse the Washington Post/ABC News poll: Obama is actually doing worse on his chances for reelection than December. Right now, 28 percent of respondents (again, adults, not registered or likely voters) would definitely vote for Obama for reelection, and another 25 percent said they would consider it. The number who say now that they will not vote for Obama is 45 percent. The December poll had 26 percent definitely supporting, but 30 percent in the “maybe” category.

Tags: 2012 , Obama , Polling

Obama: Let’s Just Put Citigroup in Charge of the Economy


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As Larry Summers prepares to follow the rest of Obama’s economics team into richly deserved unemployment (okay, not really, they’ve mostly got tenured professorships to fall back on, Summers at Harvard, Romer at Berkeley), who is the president going to name as a replacement? The smart money apparently is on Anne Mulcahy, the former CEO of Xerox.

But that’s not all she’s done with her business career: She was, until a few months ago, on the board of directors at Citigroup, the $45 billion bailout baby that is still partly owned by Uncle Sam, who is desperately trying to dump the stock but keeps driving the price down every time he tries to offload it.

What, Lloyd Blankfein and Tony Hayward turned the job down?

That thundering sound you hear is Republicans across the fruited plains dropping to their knees praying that Obama appoints her.

Tags: Democrats , Despair , General Shenanigans , Obama

Who Went Into Our Dreams and Planted the Idea of the Tea Parties?


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For many of us, between high unemployment, a collapsed housing market, a health-care bill we didn’t want, runaway debt, an unsecure border, a sluggish oil-spill response, promises broken, our elected lawmakers standing and applauding a foreign leader as he denounces one of our states . . . the last two years or so have been unbelievable, surreal . . . almost a nightmare.

But all of this arrogant, out-of-control government triggered the creation of an idea: a broad-based popular movement that vehemently and overwhelmingly pushes back in the opposite direction. You might call an . . . Inception.

At least that’s the thought I had as I listened to this excellent short video over at RedState:

Tags: 2010 , Barney Frank , Nancy Pelosi , Obama

Another Stimulus, Another Bailout


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Pres. Barack Obama’s plan for yet another round (!) of stimulus spending, this time focused on highway infrastructure work, is, like so many products of this administration, something other than what it seems. What Obama is proposing is another backdoor bailout for spendthrift states, such as his political home state of Illinois, giving them large injections of federal money so that they can redirect spending that would be dedicated to highway projects to other areas—e.g., to the government-employees’ unions that are Obama’s most loyal constituency. Call it “No Blue-State Appropriator or Union Goon Left Behind, Part Whatever.”

The highway system in particular (and the transportation racket more generally) is a source of endless financial shenanigans and a rich seam of political patronage to be mined by Obama’s allies at the state and local levels. The federal highway system is maintained by a combination of federal and state spending (in a few cases, local spending as well) with the bulk of the states’ money coming from gasoline taxes and fees levied on car owners. Illinois, for example, levies a 39-cents-a-gallon tax on gas (the sixth highest in the nation, according to the Tax Foundation), and it also applies its general sales tax (another 6.25 percent) to gas. Once you figure in the total tax burden, government levies are probably a bigger contributor to the price of a gallon of gas in Illinois than is the crude oil from which it is distilled. So, what does Illinois get for its money?

Part of what it gets is the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), one of those wonderfully, comically inept state agencies that does things that make political analysts laugh and taxpayers weep: things like deciding to suddenly stop doing roadwork because they are out of gas money (irony!) or threaten to start leaving roadkill on the highways unless the state gives them another $20 million.

Highway maintenance is important, of course. But that’s not all that IDOT does with its money. For instance, IDOT helps to maintain a vast network of full-employment programs for petty bureaucrats, called “regional planning agencies.” Every region in the state has one, and they are not small: The Chicago version lists 94 staffers on its website. Its budget of $16.7 million comes mostly from IDOT ($3.8 million) and the Federal Highway Administration ($11.5 million), with money reshuffled from other government agencies, local levies, and our friends over at the Environmental Protection Agency (no, really!) kicking in another $1 million or so. Nearly a hundred bureaucrats spending state transportation money, FHA money, and EPA schmundo, doing . . . what? Overseeing roadwork? Not exactly.

Because our entire government is turning into a bank, IDOT is in the business of making low-interest loans and grants for business-related projects that it likes under its Economic Development Program (EDP). These are supposed to be transportation-oriented projects, but “economic development” is a famously elastic definition under which to operate.

May I give you a little flavor for how carefully this economic-development business is managed? Here’s an excerpt from the minutes of a recent meeting of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, or CMAP. Mr. Blankenhorn is CMAP’s executive director, Ms. Powell its chairman:

Mr. Blankenhorn said IDOT’s FY2010-11 budget includes $5 million to fund Metropolitan Planning Organizations statewide, with CMAP due to receive $3.5 million of that. He said the drawback is that all the money is supposed to be used for transportation planning, and while some of CMAP’s programs, such as community and economic development, can be tied in, most cannot. He said IDOT has promised to be flexible in what spending it will allow, but it’s really up to the General Assembly to provide funding for an agency it created to do more than transportation planning. He urged CAC members to mention the need for funding other areas if they meet with their legislators or people in leadership roles at other state agencies. Mr. Mellis asked if this means CMAP is fully funded for next year. Mr. Blankenhorn said the funding is buried in IDOT’s budget, but it’s in there. Ms. Powell said CMAP is technically not fully funded if it has programs it can’t pay for. Mr. Blankenhorn agreed and said he will no longer use the term‚ fully funded.

Buried in its budget, but they’ll be flexible! Sweet.

So, what does CMAP spend money on? Personnel, mostly — more than half of its budget goes to salaries and compensation: Just over $9.3 million is budgeted for FY2011, or about $100,000 for each of the 94 staffers listed. (I’m looking to see how lavishly compensated the top staffers are and will update you when I get the information.) If you start pumping billions of dollars into bridges and highway resurfacing, you free up a lot of money for the CMAPs and such of the world. But given the sorry record of previous “shovel ready” stimulus programs, don’t be surprised if the bridge-and-blacktop stuff is skipped altogether and the money goes straight into “community development” projects.

This is the sort of horsepucky upon which President Obama proposes to lavish another $50 billion. Stop him.

Kevin D. Williamson is deputy managing editor of National Review.

Tags: Bailouts , Debt , Deficits , Democrats , Despair , Doom , Fiscal Armageddon , Illinois , Obama , Stimulus

A Prediction


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Here’s a prediction: In the final analysis, Bush’s wars will come closer to meeting their goals and will cost far less than Obama’s stimulus.

Tags: Fiscal Armageddon , General Shenanigans , Obama , Stimulus

(Even) More Trouble at Citi: Is Obama Paying Attention? Is Gillibrand?


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You know that bank we own? No, not that one, this one. There seems to be some trouble:

An all-out war has broken out between Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and a prominent securities analyst who is saying that the big bank may be cooking the books by inflating its earnings through an accounting gimmick, FOX Business Network has learned.

The analyst, Mike Mayo, of the securities firm CLSA, has been telling investors that Citigroup (C: 3.70 ,+0.04 ,+0.96%) should take a writedown, or a loss on some $50 billion of “deferred-tax assets,” or DTAs. That is a tax credit the firm has on its financial statement that Mayo says is inflating profits at the big bank by as much as $10 billion.

For that critique, Mayo has been denied one-on-one meetings with top players of the firm, including CEO Vikram Pandit, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach, and any other member of management, while other analysts enjoy full access to the bank’s top executives, FBN has learned.

In fact, Mayo hasn’t had a meeting with Pandit or anyone in Citigroup management since around the time of the financial crisis, in the fall of 2008, when Citigroup was on the verge of extinction and needed an unprecedented series of government bailouts to survive.

You know who ought to be able to get a meeting with Vikram Pandit? Tim Geithner. And if not Tiny Tim, then his boss, Barack Obama, who was the top recipient of Citigroup campaign contributions in the last election cycle, having taken in more than $730,000. You know who else might be able to get a meeting? New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who is the biggest recipient of Citigroup money in this election cycle so far.

Obama and Gillibrand should know: If you’re going to bail out the bank and take the bank’s money, then when it’s time for due diligence, you need to make sure that somebody steps up.

Tags: Banks , Financial Crisis , Fiscal Armageddon , General Shenanigans , Obama , TARP

Illinois Fiscal Meltdown: A Continuing Series


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The Land of Lincoln (or, if you prefer, the Origin of Obama) is going broke, in a big, big way, as I have noted earlier. The main reason is it going broke is because its public-sector caste is robbing the rest of the state blind.

Have the taxpayers finally had enough? Is nearly a half-million dollars a year for a suburban Chicago parks director too much?

Dozens of Highland Park residents confronted their Park District commissioners Thursday night, demanding that they resign for approving a series of exorbitant bonuses, salary increases and pension boosting payouts to top district executives between 2005 and 2008.

. . . former executive director Ralph Volpe, finance director Kenneth Swan and facilities director David Harris were awarded bonuses that totaled $700,000 during a four-year span.

Additional salary increases during that time have or will provide the three executives with pensions that rival or surpass their total salaries to run the district in 2005. By 2008, Volpe’s total compensation topped $435,000.

Swan’s salary, which was $124,908 in 2005, spiked to $218,372 in 2008. Harris’ pay jumped from $135,403 to $339,302 during that time.

Even though Harris resigned in 2008, Park District officials confirmed that he was paid the remaining $185,120 left on his three-year contract. The district also gave him a sport utility vehicle while his compensation without the SUV in 2008 still totaled $339,302 for eight months on the job, officials said.

As Derb says: We’re in the wrong business. Get a government job.

Highland Park has 34,000 residents. Its park system is not exactly monumental. Get this: By way of comparison, the head of the Central Park Conservancy in New York City earns only  (only!) $364,000 — and the conservancy itself raises most of the park’s $25 million annual budget. New York is not exactly famous for the austerity of its public institutions. That Central Park boss must feel like he’s getting the short end compared to that Highland Park parks tycoon.

Tags: Angst , Despair , Fiscal Armageddon , General Shenanigans , Illinois , Obama , Rip-Offs

Wall Street Gets What It Paid For


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You don’t say:

Democratic U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth lashed out at President Barack Obama’s economic team Thursday, saying they show more concern for Wall Street than average Americans in a blunt election-year assessment from an Obama loyalist frustrated by a tepid economic recovery.

What started out as a bashing of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell by union activists, who pressed for more public transportation projects, shifted gears briefly when Yarmuth took aim at Obama’s inner circle of economic aides.

“I’m not real happy with our economic team in the White House,” Yarmuth said. “They think it’s more important that Goldman Sachs make money than that you make money. And that’s where we’ve got to change the attitude of this country.”

Dear Representative Yarmuth: There is a reason that Goldman Sachs acts like it owns the Democratic party. It does:

Goldman Sachs is one firm that’s learned that politics matters: The sinking investment bank received some $12 billion in bailout funds while its competitor, Lehman Brothers, was allowed to go bankrupt. Goldman operators move easily between government and the private sector and have played key roles in both Democratic and Republican administrations. But like the rest of Wall Street, they have tilted heavily Democratic of late. Goldman Sachs was the biggest business donor to Democrats in 2008, according to a Center for Responsive Politics report. Some 73 percent of Goldman Sachs’s millions in 2006–08 donations went to Democrats, but its outlook has been informed by bipartisan pragmatism: The banking bailout came from a Republican administration and was marketed by Goldman Sachs alumnus Hank Paulson, who literally begged, on bended knee, for the money. It was managed by assistant treasury secretary and former Goldman Sachs foot soldier Neel Kashkari and was politically nudged along by Bush’s chief of staff, Josh Bolton, another Goldman veteran.

With Democrats now controlling the elected branches in Washington, Goldman has an even stronger hand: Former chairman Robert Rubin is the dean of the Goldman Sachs Democrats, the group that ran economic policy under the Clinton administration and is doing the same under Obama. Rubin acolytes Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner, and Peter Orszag already are filling key economic-policy positions, and Rubin’s son, Jamie, is raising money on Wall Street for Democrats and acting as a talent scout for the Obama administration. The elder Rubin is sure to have the ear of all the major players. Geithner, hurt in the ruckus over his unpaid taxes, has turned to the bank for a reliable loyalist, hiring former Goldman lobbyist Mark Patterson as his top aide. And Geithner’s replacement at the New York Fed? William C. Dudley, former managing director of Goldman Sachs.

Other major nodes on the Goldman-Democratic nexus include Al Gore’s London-based private-equity firm, Generation Investment Management, which was founded with assistance from former Goldman boss Paulson and includes in its ranks a half dozen prominent Goldman veterans. Former Goldman Sachs Asset Management CEO David Blood is its CEO, earning the firm its nickname, “Blood and Gore.” Goldman Sachs is a significant investor in E+Co, Blue Source, and APX, all firms positioned to profit from the cap-and-trade schemes that are at the heart of Gore’s global-warming crusade.

You get what you pay for.

Tags: Economic Collapse , General Shenanigans , Obama , Wall Street Democrats

No Comment(ary)


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Noted Obama endorser Anne Applebaum on spendthrift Republicans:

Of course, parties can change, politicians can see the light, lessons can be learned—and perhaps some Republicans have learned them. But you cannot start from scratch. You cannot forget history. You cannot pretend that the Republican Party has not supported big and wasteful spending programs—energy subsidies, farm subsidies, unnecessary homeland security projects, profligate defense contracts, you name it—for the last decade. Before the Republican Party can have any credibility on any spending issues whatsoever, Republican leaders need to speak frankly about the mistakes of the past.

They also must be extremely specific about which policies and which programs they are planning to cut in the future. What will it be? Social Security or the military budget? Medicare or the TSA? Vague “anti-government” rhetoric just doesn’t cut it anymore: If you want a smaller government, you have to tell us how you will create one.

All excellent points. So, take it from an Obama endorser: Don’t fall for vague rhetoric, don’t ignore big, wasteful spending programs, and remember that, before you can have any credibility, you must speak frankly about the mistakes of the past.

Debt held by the public as a share of GDP:

Tags: Obama , Republicans , Spending

What’s the Problem? Debt or Jobs?


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Pres. Barack Obama is neither dumb nor dumber, but he is tempting fate if his message is: “things could be worse.” Yes, things could be worse — and if we keep on the current track, we stand a pretty good chance of discovering how much worse things could get.

I was not much surprised when the Obama administration more or less shrugged off the new GDP numbers over the weekend — numbers  suggesting our already anemic growth is slowing, perhaps portending the second part of a double-dip recession. But the Obama administration mostly is interested in those GDP numbers to the extent that they have an effect on the number they’re really watching: the unemployment rate.

GDP growth is long-term and complicated. Unemployment is short-term — and, unfortunately, it is gameable. You can do all sorts of things to mess with the unemployment numbers: You can keep a few hundred thousand marginally employed in federal temp jobs, you can shunt great streams of federal taxpayers’ dollars to state and local governments to encourage them to hire and retain workers, or you can keep extending unemployment benefits so that the sting of joblessness is felt a bit less acutely. But once you’ve done all that, you’re pretty much out of options.

Which means that you have to, in the end, deal with reality.

And the reality is this: No amount of Keynesian theorizing or federal demand-management is going to get us out of this mess, get the economy growing, or get unemployment down. In fact, it was precisely that kind of government demand-boosting that got us into this mess to begin with: Hey, let’s increase demand in the market for mortgage-backed securities! What could possibly go wrong? Remember? So instead of throwing away another Iraq-and-Afghanistan-wars-combined-sized pile of money on beekeeper subsidies and cars that run on unicorn juice, you can put that money to much better use by — not spending it.

We have a gaggle of economic problems. Unemployment is one of them. The debt-to-GDP ratio is another: It’s heading toward World War II levels in the near term and Greek levels in the medium term, if we do not change course soon. (Note to President Obama: I’m guessing you were more of a humanities guy back in college. You studied a little Greek drama, I’m sure. Remember the key ingredient in a Greek tragedy? Hubris. Think about that.) There is no magic formula for making the economy grow in order to buck up that GDP vs. debt calculation. But we can work on the other side of the equation: by cutting spending.

A real-estate developer (and Obama supporter) writes that he wishes somebody would sit down with Americans and give us what he calls “the grown-up talk,” which goes, in part:

The economy is likely to be stagnant for some time, unemployment is likely to remain high for the foreseeable future, and near term significant GDP growth will be elusive. The time has come for us as a country to retrench for the future. Retrenching is not fun. It’s hard. But it is necessary. We have to address our real problems and solve them and those problems start and end with entitlement spending. Like it or not, we are going to have to accept things like means based testing, and increasing mandatory retirement ages. Our country cannot afford to be held hostage by the AARP and aging baby boomers . . . . We are going to have to make painful cuts. Our economic well being does not rise and fall on the fate of beekeeping and ethanol subsidies.

There are obvious areas where we can afford to cut and should cut. We have to end our sacred cow mentality toward defense spending. Is is absolutely vital for the security of our country to spend 3 times more on defense than the next country? How much additional risk do we assume if we spend 2.9x more than the next country?

The upshot is that neither tax cuts nor additional stimulus spending is likely to cause the kind of growth hoped for by advocates of each approach. There’s a lot of malinvestment out there, a lot of misallocated capital, and it is simply going to take time, pain, and frustration to work through it. We cannot magic those problems away. But government can — and must — start to get its fiscal house in order, and that begins with getting out-of-control spending on a leash.

If Barack Obama wants to serve a second term, he’s probably got about six months to get religion on spending — and if the Republicans want to do something useful with all those congressional seats they are expecting to pick up in the next two elections (rather than just redirect pork away from green-energy boondoggles and back to black-energy subsidies and the Small Business Administration) then they are going to need a plan. Here’s one. It’s not perfect, but if any Republican has a better agenda — or, for that matter, any credible agenda at all — let’s hear the plan.

Kevin D. Williamson is deputy managing editor of National Review.

Tags: financial Armageddon , GDP , Obama , Unemployment

More Great News for Democrats, This Time from Pew


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From the latest Pew poll:

The public remains doggedly downbeat about the condition of the national economy, even as many experts and economists see signs of recovery. As has been the case for most of the past two years, about nine-in-ten (88%) rate national economic conditions as only fair or poor, and over the past year there has been no decline in the percentage saying the economy will stay the same (36%) or get worse (19%) a year from now.

That must be my video talking down the economy.

Just 33% say the economic stimulus passed by Congress last year has helped the job situation and only somewhat more (42%) say the loans the federal government provided to troubled financial institutions prevented a more severe financial crisis. Less than a third (31%) says that the government has made progress in fixing the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis.

To quote today’s Morning Jolt: “A strong case can be made that the sudden downturn in the economy in 2008 persuaded a lot of wavering voters to decide, “okay, I’ve had it with Bush, this Obama guy seems smart, let’s give him a shot.” Since taking office, Obama and his team have been misjudging the economy and offering “recovery is just around the corner!” sunshine on a regular basis. I’d contend that not only do they not know what’s just around the corner, but they don’t even have that good a handle on what’s going on now. (Did you know Ohio Democrat Marcy Kaptur called recent testimony of Tim Geithner, Christina Romer and Peter Orszag. “dismaying and out of touch”?)”

More than six-in-ten (62%) say the economic stimulus package enacted by Congress last year has not helped the job situation, while about half (49%) say the government’s loans to banks and other financial institutions did not help prevent a more severe economic crisis. Meanwhile, the public sees little government progress toward fixing the causes of the financial crisis. About four-in-ten (42%) say they see just a little progress; 25% say they see no progress at all.

Remember, Tim Kaine informed us today that Democrats would be running on their record.

Tags: Obama , The Economy


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