Few congressional defeats stung conservatives as much as Representative Pat Murphy’s defeat of Allen West — NR Cruiser — in Florida.

Besides the popularity of West among conservatives, the district was hardly tough territory for Republicans. Florida’s 18th congressional district is one of only nine in the U.S. that elected a Democrat to the House but gave more of its vote to Mitt Romney last year. Two Republicans announced bids early, former Connecticut state lawmaker Alan Schlesinger (you may remember him as the token longshot Republican in the 2006 Joe Lieberman–Ned Lamont Senate race) and Juno Beach vice mayor pro tem Ellen Andel. But the Republican field now features a veteran state lawmaker with serious financial resources at his disposal, Carl Domino.

Domino served four terms and lost in the 2010 GOP Senate primary; as of 2012, his personal financial disclosure forms listed his net worth as roughly $24 million. He was the wealthiest state legislator in Florida during his term. His old state-legislative campaign site can be found here; his financial firm’s site can be found here.

West has said he’s open to challenging GOP senator Marco Rubio in 2016.

You don’t see public polls in House races very often; pollsters have a tougher time ensuring that the people they call are in the right district, because the area-code lines rarely precisely align with the district lines.

But this morning there are two polls out in Florida’s 18th district, a race that features one of the most well-known, and headline-grabbing, House Republicans, Rep. Allen West.

In 2008, West ran against Rep. Ron Klein and performed quite strongly in a tough year. In the 2010 rematch, West won handily, 54 percent to 46 percent, as Florida Republicans rolled to big gains across the state. But after the 2010 census, Florida’s 22nd district shifted to D+5; West is now running in the adjacent 18th district, which scores R+1.

Because of his outspoken conservative views, West represents one of the Democrats’ top targets, and both West and his opponent, Patrick Murphy, are well-funded.

One poll out this morning has West barely ahead:

A Sunshine State News poll of 752 ‘Likely’ voters conducted by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service (VSS) gave a slight, 49 percent to 48 percent edge to West — with just 3 percent remaining undecided entering the final weeks of the Congressional District 18 contest.

But the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows West with a solid lead:

Rep. Allen West (R-FL) is leading his Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by nine points, according to a new FLDemocracy/WPTV/ TCPalm poll released Thursday. Among likely voters surveyed, 51 percent support West and 42 percent back Murphy. Eight percent are undecided.

If West hangs on, it will likely be in part because of West using hard-hitting ads like this one:

Here’s one congressional district that won’t see a rematch of its 2010 competitors:

 Former U.S. Congressman Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania is eyeing the state Attorney General’s Office.Murphy told the Philadelphia Intelligencer on Wednesday that he will run for the office in 2012. Murphy, a Democrat, was elected to Congress in 2007. He was the first veteran of the Iraq War to serve.He was re-elected to a second term in 2008, but lost his 8th District seat to Republican Mike Fitzpatrick — his opponent in the 2006 race — last fall.

As currently drawn, Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District is one of the classic suburban swing districts, serving Bucks County and a small corner of Montgomery County and northeastern Philadelphia. (The state is losing one seat in the current redistricting.) Fitzpatrick won a surprisingly resounding victory last year, 54 percent to 46 percent.

Florida congressman Allen West has his first declared opponent, a Democrat with a familiar name, Patrick Murphy. A Democrat with the same name represented Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district until this year.

Murphy’s first web video features him declaring, “I love my country. I love South Florida. And I’m not going to stand by while right-wing extremists like Allen West continue to divide us!”

“Unity!” demands the man who labels his opponent and the 54 percent who elected him “extremist.”

A lot of readers have wanted to see some numbers on the Irish Rematch in suburban Philly, Fitzpatrick vs. Murphy.

The Monmouth University poll gives some good news for the GOP:

In a rematch of the 2006 election for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Republican Mike Fitzpatrick holds a 5 point lead over incumbent Democrat Patrick Murphy. The Monmouth University Poll finds Fitzpatrick leading Murphy by 51% to 46% among likely voters in this district.

Murphy has served two terms in the House and originally attained the seat by defeating the then-freshman incumbent Fitzpatrick by just 1,500 votes. Murphy went on to win re-election by 15 points in 2008.

. . . Overall, 65% of voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th District think the country is on the wrong track compared with 31% who say it is headed in the right direction.

President Barack Obama won this district by 9 points in 2008. Today, though, 8th District voters give him a negative job performance rating of 40% approve to 55% disapprove. Among those who voted for Obama two years ago, 81% say they will vote for Democrat Murphy, but 16% will cast their ballots for Fitzpatrick on November 2. By comparison, 93% of John McCain voters from 2008 will support GOP nominee Fitzpatrick, versus just 7% who will vote for Murphy.

District voters are somewhat more likely to prefer having the Republicans (47%) rather than the Democrats (40%) in control of Congress next year. They split on their overall view of the Republican Party — 44% favorable to 47% unfavorable — but have a dimmer opinion of the Democratic Party — 39% favorable to 54% unfavorable. The Tea Party movement is also viewed negatively by voters in general — 42% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 646 likely voters from October 11 to 13, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent.

I think the number that jumps out at me the most is the 16 percent of Obama voters supporting the Republican.

The Philadelphia Daily News says that incumbent Democrat Patrick Murphy has gone from “uh oh!” to “oh no!”

U.S. REP. Patrick Murphy’s “uh-oh” moment came last month, when his polling firm reported that Republican Mike Fitzpatrick was within striking distance of recapturing his 8th District seat in Bucks County.

This is his “oh, no” moment:

A new Daily News/Franklin & Marshall College poll — the first independent survey in the nationally watched race — shows Fitzpatrick opening up a double-digit lead over the second-term Democratic congressman.

Fitzpatrick, who lost the congressional seat to Murphy in 2006 by a razor-thin margin, is leading Murphy, 46-36 percent, among registered voters in the district. Among likely voters, the challenger is ahead, 49-35 percent.

“I’m somewhat surprised at the size of the Fitzpatrick lead, but I’m not surprised that he has a lead,” said poll director G. Terry Madonna.

The sudden and mysterious disappearance of the Democrats’ advantage in Bucks County will be the subject of the next movie from local filmmaker M. Night Shyamalan; the twist ending will be that the voters’ preference for that party was a vast illusion created by their exhaustion with the Bush presidency.

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D., Pa.) wanted to hold one-on-one meetings with constituents, and the assembled folks wanted a more traditional town-hall meeting with questions and answers. Murphy’s left insisting he has office hours; the assembled folks begin “chanting ‘town hall!’ and ‘quit hiding!’” Then he’s left insisting that his meeting with constituents is not a political event.

He’s left admitting he doesn’t know when his next town-hall meeting will be.

Among those who received a phone call, urging them to come out and address their congressman: Mike Fitzpatrick, Republican candidate for Congress, running against . . . Patrick Murphy. He appears about 7:30 in the above video, and decide for yourself who gets the better of their exchange.

Will any swing-district Democrat hold any town-hall meetings this summer?