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Tags: Rick Boucher

One More Once-Trailing Republican Pulls Ahead



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I believe for the first time, a poll has found Republican Morgan Griffith leading 15-term incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher in Virginia’s 9th district.

A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.

In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it’s Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith’s lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.

Among traditional midterm voters — those who vote in most or all congressional elections — Boucher is nominally ahead, by 3 to 5 points. But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1. The relative sizes of these groups will determine the winner. If the uniquely motivated 2010 voters walk-the-ballot-box walk, and don’t just talk-the-pollster talk, the Republicans have a chance to snatch the seat. If the uniquely motivated voters aren’t so motivated after all, Boucher keeps the seat.

In related news, Jay Cost’s eyes just turned green and he’s begging others to not make him angry.

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher

GOP Sees Three Virginia Challengers Leading, One Trailing By Just a Bit



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There’s a new batch of polls in Virginia’s four most interesting House races.

“On Monday, September 27, ccAdvertising completed surveys to voters in four key Congressional districts in Virginia. These surveys focused on the competitive Congressional races as well as current national issues. The surveys were conducted to both landline phones and mobile phones.”

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.

Tags: Gerry Connolly , Glenn Nye , Keith Fimian , Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Scott Rigell , Tom Perriello

It Appears Southwest Virginia and South-Central Virginia Are in Different Moods



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The news for Virginia Republicans is not bad, merely strange. While Survey USA shows Robert Hurt crushing incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello in one competitive district, in another, GOP challenger Parker Morgan* Griffith trails incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher by 10, narrowing the gap by 3 percentage points since their last poll.

Virginia Republicans see many reasons for optimism:

Why is a 3-point swing so remarkable?

• Name Recognition: Boucher has run 14 previous campaigns in this district — yet this is one of the closest, if not the closest — re-election runs he’s ever faced. Over the past decade, Boucher has usually finished 20 or more points ahead of his challenger. For the first time ever, his margin is shrinking.

• Air Time: Boucher has been on the air for months in annoyingly-heavy rotation. You can’t turn on the 6 p.m. news in Roanoke or the Tri-Cities without being blasted by multiple Boucher ads.

• Boucher is Running from his Record: Boucher’s TV message is a 180-degree distortion of his actual record. He claims to be for a balanced budget, but voted against a balanced budget amendment twice, and balanced budget resolutions on two other occasions. He boasts about his vote against ObamaCare, but doesn’t mention his vote to hire 16,000 IRS agents to enforce it.

If Rick is so proud of his record, why doesn’t he mention that he votes with Nancy Pelosi 96.4 percent of the time.  Or for that matter, why doesn’t the word “Democrat” appear in any of his ads? 

Meanwhile, as people get to know Morgan Griffith, the more they support him. 

All of their reasoning is plausible; it’s just odd to see Griffith, a veteran state legislator who would presumably begin with decent name recognition in a not-terribly-Democratic district, still trailing by a significant margin.

* Thank God I didn’t write “Peter Griffin.”

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher

Survey USA Giveth, Survey USA Taketh Away



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Survey USA offered Virginia Democrats terrible news earlier this week; now it offers them some good news:

A new Survey USA poll shows Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) leading Republican Morgan Griffith 52-39 in Virginia’s 9th district.  The poll shows, “Among men, the contest is tied; among women, Boucher leads by 25 points. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents split. Those with favorable opinions of the Tea Party movement back Griffith 3:1; those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party back Boucher 14:1.”

Obviously, a 13-point lead is not insurmountable, but it’s surprising in light of SurveyUSA’s other poll showing the GOP’s candidate in another Virginia district, state senator Robert Hurt, leading incumbent Democrat Rep. Tom Perriello by 23 points.

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

Who Applauded Calderon?



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The Republican party of Virginia wants to know if two local Democrats were among those applauding Mexican president Felipe Calderón:

“There was a disturbing scene in the House of Representatives last week,” [Republican Party of Virginia chairman Pat] Mullins said. “During a speech to a joint session of Congress, Mexican President Calderón called for the U.S. to reinstate a ban on common sporting weapons to help fix his country’s problems with drug violence.”

“That might have been inappropriate, but it wasn’t the worst part. Instead of sitting silently as a foreign leader called for restrictions on basic Constitutional rights, Democrats gave Calderón a standing ovation,” Mullins said.

“Voters in the 5th and 9th Districts need to know if Democrat Reps. Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello were among the hundreds of Democrats who leaped to their feet to applaud gun control while a leader from a foreign nation scolded the American people for upholding the rights secured to us by our Constitution,” he said. 

They’ve made web ads dealing with the applause here.

Tags: Rick Boucher , Tom Perriello

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