This morning, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus announced to Campaign Spot six more speakers for the party’s national convention in Tampa:

• U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, United States Senator from New Hampshire and former New Hampshire Attorney General.
• Former Democratic National Convention Speaker Artur Davis, former Alabama congressman from the 7th District (2003-2011) who was the first member of Congress not from Illinois to endorse President Obama in 2008. Davis, then a Democrat, seconded the official nomination of Obama at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. He recently announced he is joining the Republican Party and supporting Mitt Romney.
• Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 55th Governor of Louisiana, winning election in 2007 and winning reelection in all of the state’s 64 parishes in 2011; former U.S. Congressman; led the state’s response to the catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf in 2010.
• Congressman Connie Mack won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate in Florida on August 14th and was first elected to the United States House of Representatives in November 2004.
• Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, chairman of the Republican Governors Association and chairman of the Republican National Convention Committee on Resolutions, commonly known as the Platform Committee.
• U.S. Senator Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from Ohio who won election in 2010 by 18 points, winning 82 of Ohio’s 88 counties, and former Congressman from Ohio’s 2nd  district.  He is also a former U.S. Trade Representative and former Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

“This exciting group of headliners includes two successful governors, two outstanding senators, the next senator from our convention state, and a former Co-Chairman of the 2008 Obama campaign,” Priebus said in a released statement. “The perspectives and ideas they bring to the convention stage will show all Americans that Romney and Ryan are the ticket to a better future. Former Congressman Davis especially will give voice to the frustration and disappointment felt among those who supported President Obama in 2008 and are now hungry for a new direction.”

The convention is from August 27-30. Of the above names, Ayotte, Jindal, McDonnell and Portman were among those considered to be potential running mates for Romney. Mack is considered one of the party’s better shots for a takeover of an incumbent Democrat’s Senate seat, taking on Bill Nelson, and Davis is growing in prominence as one of Romney’s surrogates, as an African-American former Democrat. The comparisons of him to Joe Lieberman, who addressed the 2008 Republican convention, are likely to intensify in the coming weeks.

Davis also periodically writes for NRO. In fact, this morning he has a column declaring, “there has always been a measured slickness in how Barack Obama’s political operation has handled race, the third rail in politics.”

Veepstakes mania leads off the Tuesday Morning Jolt…

Will Romney Pick His Veep Now? … How About Now? … How About… Now?

With Romney back from his overseas trip, and the Olympics ending this weekend, the veepstakes talk is kicking into higher gear.

 I don’t know if Bill Kristol has any inside scoop… but he certainly has perfected the art of sounding like he does:

On Monday, Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol appeared on Fox News Channel where he discussed an editorial published over the weekend in which he recommends Mitt Romney “go for gold” and select either Rep.Paul Ryan (R-WI) or Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) to be the vice presidential nominee. Kristol said that he expects the vice presidential pick to be announced on Thursday in preparation for a bus tour which will take the 2012 GOP ticket to a number of battleground states.

“If you look at Governor Romney’s schedule, he’s got events in Illinois Tuesday, Iowa Wednesday, a fundraising breakfast Thursday morning in New York – his calendar then is clear, so far as I can tell, Thursday afternoon and Friday,” said Kristol. “Then he begins a barnstorming tour Saturday in Virginia, North Carolina Sunday, Florida Monday, Ohio Tuesday.”

“It’d be pretty weird, I think, to do this four-day tour through four swing states – big bus tour, a lot of excitement – without having picked a V.P. and with that, sort of, hanging over him and dwarfing whatever message he wants to get out,” Kristol continued.

“I now believe the pick would be made Thursday afternoon or Friday,” said Kristol, saying that he believes Thursday is the more likely of the two days to reveal a running mate. “Let the guy go on the morning shows Friday morning. Dominate the news over the weekend – very exciting bus tour – with Romney accompanied by either Christie, Ryan or Rubio.”

Micah Sifry offers a leading indicator:

The Romney campaign wants you to download its mobile app to be among the first to find out who Mitt is going to pick as his running mate, but if past history is any guide, you might want to instead be looking at Wikipedia — and whether any of the leading contenders’ entries are being suddenly brushed up.

Sarah Palin’s Wikipedia page was updated at least 68 times the day before John McCain announced her selection, with another 54 changes made in the five previous days previous. Tim Pawlenty, another leading contender for McCain’s favor, had 54 edits on August 28th, with just 12 in the five previous days. By contrast, the other likely picks — Romney, Kay Bailey Hutchison — saw far fewer changes. The same burst of last-minute editing appeared on Joe Biden’s Wikipedia page, Terry Gudaitis of Cyveillance, told the Washington Post.

None of Wikipedia entries for the current candidates being bandied about by Romney-watchers — Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Kelly Ayotte or Pawlenty — are currently showing anything like the spike in edits that Cyveillance spotted on Palin and Biden’s pages back in 2008. But most of those came in the 24 hours prior to the official announcement. That said, if Wikipedia changes offer any hint of what’s coming, then today might be a good day to bet on Ryan.

My suggestion? Keep your eyes on Romney’s campaign plane at night.

Matt Drudge is a master of finding the intriguing comment buried in an article and . . . extrapolating big things.

The New York Times, in a profile of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, wrote: “His fate is in the hands of Mr. Romney, a rival-turned-friend, who is on the cusp of announcing his vice-presidential selection. Mr. Romney has reached a decision, his friends believe, and he may disclose it as soon as this week.”

What makes these Romney friends believe he has made a decision? No word.

The Drudge headline: “HE’S MADE HIS DECISION!”

. . . Well, maybe. Or maybe the unidentified Romney friends are drawing the wrong conclusions from whatever they see/hear/sense in their friend.

It does seem plausible that Romney would be close to a decision.

RealClearPolitics concluded a few weeks ago that the officeholders getting the most work as campaign surrogates included Pawlenty, Ohio senator Rob Portman, Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan, and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. (In the weeks that followed, New Hampshire’s Sen. Kelly Ayotte seems to be getting more work as a Romney surrogate.) There were reports that Florida senator Marco Rubio was not being vetted, and then Romney said in an interview that he was indeed being vetted. The big news this morning is that South Dakota senator John Thune said he has “been to Boston to meet Romney’s senior advisers and has met Beth Myers, who is leading the search for the vice presidential nominee.”

So, barring some surprise, completely under-the-radar choice, the list is (in alphabetical order) Ayotte, Jindal, Pawlenty, Portman, Ryan, Rubio and Thune. (A top Romney source already told Bob Costa it’s “not Condi” Rice.)

The Olympics’ opening ceremony is July 27, and London-related headlines are likely to dominate the following weeks. Mid-August is traditionally America’s vacation time. And then there’s the August 27 deadline. So there’s a short window to announce in the coming two weeks, or sometime after the Olympics end August 12.

My suggestion? Keep your eyes on Romney’s campaign plane at night.

In the Thursday edition of the Morning Jolt, a look at a surprising rebuke to President Obama from a news anchor, a poll of the most memorable moments in television history, and then this bit of political buzz . . .

And the Next Vice President of the United States Will Be . . .

The long-awaited name of the running mate leaked yesterday: Cheri Honkala.

Wait, that’s the running mate for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. What party did you think I was talking about?

Reuters generated quite a bit of buzz with this little nugget:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney acknowledged on Tuesday he is considering naming his choice to serve as vice presidential running mate earlier than usual to better compete with President Barack Obama.

As they work from a short list of leading Republicans, Romney and his advisers say they are weighing whether he should announce his choice some weeks earlier than the traditional time of around the Republican National Convention, which is to be held in Tampa in late August.

The reasoning, advisers say, is that two candidates would be able to raise more money and engage Obama and Vice President Joe Biden in battle with polls showing Americans closely divided on whether to pick the Republican challenger or Democratic incumbent in the November 6 election.

Jonathan Tobin urges us to not jump to that conclusion: “Those who believe Romney is going to make a decision based on the ephemeral political advantages to be gained are forgetting that the Republican is the ultimate numbers-cruncher and specialized in mining the data exhaustively to make the right choice in business. He is probably conducting the veep search in the same manner he has made every other important business and political decision in his life, which makes the notion of moving up the pick merely in order to give him a couple of positive news cycles laughable. This is a man who is obsessed with long rather than short-term gains. That is why it is likely that whoever he chooses will be someone he thinks can help him govern rather than someone who is, no matter how impressive, unlikely to be the difference in the fall election.”

And during our discussion on MSNBC — yes, I shared a set with Obama’s former deputy press secretary Bill Burton! — Chuck Todd pointed out that right now, guys like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, and Ohio Sen. Rob Portman are already all out there, being effective surrogates and fundraisers for the Romney campaign. Each one of those guys gets an extra bit of attention and buzz because they’re possible running mates. What’s the rush to move from five high-attention, loud-buzz surrogates to one big one and four lesser ones?

Panic! Panic! A second poll has Pat Toomey trailing in Pennsylvania!

Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.

. . . It’s hard to explain Sestak’s latest apparent comeback. There’s a sense that faithful Democrats are paying closer attention in the closing weeks as President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country making the case for keeping Democrats in charge.And Sestak’s campaign appears adept at using an opponent’s own words against him in political TV ads. On air now is a commercial showing Toomey, a former Lehigh Valley congressman, saying his voting record is “hard to distinguish from Rick Santorum’s.”

Oh, and in Ohio . . .

Republican Rob Portman heads into the home stretch with a 55 – 34 percent likely voter lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds Portman’s lead statistically unchanged from his leads of 55 – 35 percent September 17 and 55 – 36 percent October 6.

“Given that Lt. Gov. Fisher has been trailing Portman by roughly 20 points since the fall campaign got underway, there’s not much reason to think he can close that gap appreciably in the final two weeks of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Other than self-identified Democrats, it is hard to find a demographic group that supports Fisher.”

Quinnipiac begins last rites for the Lee Fisher for Senate campaign in Ohio.

Republican Rob Portman remains far ahead of Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, 55 – 36 percent among likely voters, in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today that shows the race unchanged from Portman’s 55 – 35 percent likely voter lead September 17.

By a 44 – 33 percent margin, likely voters in Ohio want the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate after the November elections, the independent Quinnipiac University survey finds. Voters also want, 54 – 39 percent, their senator to oppose President Obama’s policies.

Portman leads 93 – 3 percent among Republicans and 67 – 25 percent among independent voters, while Fisher carries Democrats 80 – 10 percent.  Portman has a small 47 – 43 percent lead among women, but buries Fisher among men 63 – 30 percent.

“It would seem that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher’s best shot at victory might be finding a way to stop men from voting.  Otherwise, he faces an incredibly uphill battle in the four weeks before Election Day in reversing a 33-point disadvantage among male voters,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The fact that Fisher hasn’t been able to make up any ground since the last Quinnipiac University poll is a bad omen for his ability to make this a close race.”

Legendary college football coach Lou Holtz offers a message on behalf of the NRCC:

We are late into the fourth quarter of the midterm elections and the NRCC needs your immediate help to drive our Republican Party to Victory. In case you don’t recognize me, my name is Lou Holtz and if my 40 years coaching college football taught me anything, it’s how to spot a winning team.

And I’m writing to tell you — Quarterbacked by John Boehner and Pete Sessions — our Republican Party has an excellent team of limited government, pro-freedom individuals ready to take the field in Washington and defeat the other team’s liberal agenda.But they can’t find the End Zone without your support. With less than 28 days left until the election your support is needed. It may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.

You see, despite the slew of positive polls and media reports on our Party’s terrific chance to recapture the U.S. House majority, the truth is the ball is still on the 20-yard line with plenty of time left on the clock.

And the other team is fierce. They will say or spend anything to get another four downs to spend our money and strip away our freedoms that have made America a beacon of hope for 234 years.

My friend, YOU are the NRCC’s 12th man and they urgently need your help to win every U.S. House seat possible, fire Nancy Pelosi, and elect a Republican to the Speaker’s chair this November.Please join me and help them by making a generous contribution of $39, $1 dollar for every seat needed create a NEW Republican Majority. Your support may mean the difference between 38 seats and the majority.Thank you.

Sincerely,

Lou Holtz, 

Hall of Fame Coach 

Ironically, after the e-mail ended, he continued, “You’re talking about one poll. One [darn] poll. The guy was not — was not a good congressman last year! He was very disappointing. We’re talking about the best congressmen, not who had the best day! Not who’s played the weakest [darn] schedule! Who the heck have the Democrats played?”

[Slight language warning in this clip.]

UPDATE: Speaking of college football, in Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher argues that the job-creation record compiled by him and Ted Strickland is comparable to Woody Hayes’s “three yards and a cloud of dust.”

Republican Rob Portman observes the state has lost 400,000 jobs in the past four years. Perhaps Fisher meant “three yards, a fumble, and the defense runs it back the distance for six points.”

If you want to take a Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll with a grain of salt, you’re free to make that choice. But they’re not showing monolithically good news for Republicans. But where they do see good news, it’s quite good:

West Virginia

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.

In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally — but they still prefer Raese.

Connecticut

Republican hopes to pick up a Democratic Senate seat in Connecticut face a tough reality on the ground. Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a 10-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in a new Fox News battleground poll in the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).

Blumenthal — elected five times as attorney general — took 52 percent support compared to 42 percent for McMahon, who built a professional wrestling empire with her husband, Vince. The survey was taken before the fiery first debate between the two, moderated by “Special Report” anchor Bret Baier, on Monday night.

In the race for governor, Democrat Dan Malloy, the longtime mayor of Stamford, holds a 6-point edge over Republican Tom Foley, a businessman who served as an envoy to Iraq and an ambassador to Ireland under George W. Bush.

Reid on the Ropes in Nevada

Republican Sharron Angle seems to be solidifying her support in her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

Democratic strategists hope to prevent an Angle win by driving up her unfavorable ratings and pushing voters to choose a minor party candidate or “none of these.” Angle was viewed unfavorable by 53 percent in the survey. But Reid was viewed unfavorably by 55 percent.

GOP Looks Strong in Missouri Match-up

Missouri voters see a strong connection between President Obama and Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan, and that’s not helping Carnahan.

A new Fox News battleground state poll in Missouri shows Carnahan trailing Republican candidate Roy Blunt by 8 points among likely voters. Blunt, a seven-term congressman from the central part of the state, won the support of 50 percent compared to 42 percent for Carnahan, the second-term secretary of state.

Republicans Still Gaining in Ohio

Republicans are still gaining ground in bellwether Ohio, a bad sign for Democrats trying to assess their party’s chances in the heartland this year.

Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 16 points in the latest Fox News battleground state poll — Portman’s widest lead yet.

Republican gubernatorial challenger John Kasich also saw his numbers rise against Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland. Kasich was the choice of 49 percent of respondents compared to 43 percent for Strickland. The 6-point lead is the largest in the four weeks of Fox battleground polling on the race.

MSNBC’s Chuck Todd explains why the GOP’s John Kasich is barely ahead in Ohio’s governor’s race, while the GOP’s Rob Portman leads the Senate race easily: “[Ted] Strickland topping Kasich 2-1 in spots aired; while Portman has nearly a 6-1 advantage in spots aired last week over [Lee] Fisher.”

That will do it. Republicans hope Kasich is ready to saturate the airwaves in the final month.

Quinnipiac tells the Democrats that it’s probably time to give up on Ohio . . . just about all of it:

Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 – 35 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, while President Barack Obama has a 60 – 38 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 58 – 37 percent margin, likely Ohio voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes President Obama’s policies, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  And by 49 – 31 percent, voters want Republicans rather than Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

This is the first general election survey of likely voters in Ohio in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. 

Keep this in mind as you continue to see polls of registered voters released this late in the cycle.

BOOM:

Republican Marco Rubio continues to hold a double-digit lead over independent candidate Charlie Crist in Florida’s contentious race for the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds Rubio with 41% support. Crist, the state’s current governor, earns 30% of the vote, with Democrat Kendrick Meek still running third with 23%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

BOOM:

Republican Rob Portman now earns his highest level of support to date against Democrat Lee Fisher in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters, including leaners, finds Portman picking up 49% of the vote, while Fisher gets 41% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

POW:

GOP hopeful Pat Toomey holds an 8-point lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the battle for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat, according to polling released Wednesday morning by Rasmussen Reports. Toomey, a Republican activist and former congressman, leads 49 percent to Sestak’s 41 percent among 500 likely voters questioned Sept. 13; the margin of error was 4 points.

Hey, it’s not like a national party has to be competitive in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The only bad news for Republicans in the latest batch of polls from Fox News is from Florida’s governor’s race:

Florida: Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 27%, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) at 21%. Alex Sink (D) is ahead of Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 49% to 41%.

Nevada: Sharron Angle (R) edges Sen. Harry Reid (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) leads Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 41%.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) leads Lee Fisher (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41%. John Kasich (R) is ahead of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in the race for governor, 48% to 43%.

California: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) edges Carly Fiorina (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%. Meg Whitman (R) is ahead of Jerry Brown (D) in the race for governor, 49% to 43%.

Most of these results are in line with other polls, but I suspect Sharron Angle’s supporters will be cheered at a non-Rasmussen poll* showing her ahead.

UPDATE: Eh, it’s sort of not Rasmussen: “Pulse Opinion Research licenses methodology developed by veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen, providing a survey platform for a host of clients, from individuals to special-interest groups. In fact, we provide the field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys. We have also collected data for presidential campaigns and top-tier political professionals from across the political spectrum. Over the period from 2003 to 2009, Pulse generated 18% of its revenue from Republican sources, 20% from Democrats and 61% from sources not affiliated with either major party.”

When your opponent ran for his last job by touting an ability to create jobs, and then failed to create any jobs… well, you end up with ads like this one for Rob Portman, Republican Senate candidate in Ohio:

I look forward to the Lee Fisher ad entitled “Wait, Wait, Wait, I Get a Do-Over!”

Ben Smith of Politico notices:

Ohio [Democratic] Senate candidate Lee Fisher is crossing that line as well, with a campaign fundraiser [the evening of September 11] at the home of a Mansfield City councilwoman, Ellen Hairing. Asked about the timing, a Fisher aide noted that earlier that day, the Democrat is attending a first-responder dedication ceremony in Hilliard, Ohio.  His Republican opponent, Rob Portman, isn’t doing any events that day, an aide said.

“Fisher is, as far as I know, the only federal candidate in the country holding a fundraiser that day,” Smith notes.

Indeed, 9/11 is less marked as an anniversary year by year; Fisher’s act would have been unthinkable in 2002 or probably even 2006. This will probably not have much impact on the race; Fisher is already trailing by quite a bit.

But would you want to be the only candidate in the country holding a fundraiser that day?

The Buckeye State is . . . not enamored of Democrats this year:

Republican candidates have grabbed double-digit leads in the races for governor and the U.S. Senate, and the swelling red tide could lead to a GOP sweep of statewide offices, the first Dispatch Poll of the 2010 campaign shows.

With voter enthusiasm running nearly three times higher among Republicans than Democrats, GOP gubernatorial candidate John Kasich leads by 12 points over Gov. Ted Strickland while GOP Senate hopeful Rob Portman tops Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 13 points . . .

Republican candidates lead for all down-ticket statewide offices on the Nov. 2 ballot: former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine for attorney general, Delaware County Prosecutor Dave Yost for auditor, state Sen. Jon Husted for secretary of state, state Rep. Josh Mandel for treasurer, Justice Maureen O’Connor for chief justice and Justice Judith Ann Lanzinger for re-election.

The mail survey of 1,622 randomly chosen registered Ohio voters from Aug. 25 through Friday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

This is a lousy day if you’re a Democrat running for Senate in the Midwest. First Sestak trails Toomey by nine, and now “the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of likely voters in Ohio shows Republican Rob Portman picking up 45 percent support, while his Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, earns the vote from 37 percent.”

Public Policy Polling will probably release a poll from Illinois today, too, and if the likely voters of Illinois are anything like the likely voters of Pennsylvania, well, Alexi Giannoulias is probably going to have a lousy day, too.

Fans of Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Lee Fisher won’t like this ad from the GOP’s Rob Portman, but when you say, “Ohioans should hold [me] to [my] promise to take an aggressive approach to helping businesses locate in the state or expand operations already here,” people tend to do just that.

Over in Politico it is written:

Most people agree that [California Sen. Barbara] Boxer, despite her fundraising prowess and deep network of donors, will require an infusion of DSCC cash. Her rival, Republican Carly Fiorina, is another partial self-funder, but she won’t have the same level of cash to throw around as her ticketmate, gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman. Still, the polls suggest the race is tight, and a long-serving incumbent is at risk. “They don’t want to lose Boxer, and they don’t want to lose California,” Sheinkopf said, noting how expensive it is to win back a lost seat in the Golden State because its media costs are so prohibitive.

Boxer has $11 million on hand, and has an 11-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Fiorina. (Keep in mind, Fiorina can at least partially self-finance.) By comparison, in Ohio, Democrat Lee Fisher is faces a 9-to-1 disadvantage to Republican Rob Portman, and in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey has $4.5 million to Joe Sestak’s $2 million on hand. In other words, there are other Democrats who will really, really need DSCC funds this cycle; you have to wonder how they’ll feel about the national committee pumping funds to a candidate sitting on so much cash.

Over in the Corner, Ramesh thinks I’m too rosy about the chances for Marco Rubio in Florida’s Senate race and Rob Portman in Ohio’s Senate race.

Presume all the standard caveats: Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, don’t measure the drapes until you’ve won the office, anything can change in a New York minute, etc.

Rob Portman’s campaign led every poll from late September to mid-March; I can’t help but note that was during the peak of debate around the health-care bill. He’s currently sitting on $8.8 million in cash-on-hand; his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher, has $1.2 million. Fisher has led polls in recent months, but never by more than 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Obama’s job-approval numbers have been underwater in Ohio for quite some time. Fisher is on his third campaign manager this year; apparently it’s one of those jobs with a high turnover rate, like Spinal Tap drummer or number three in al-Qaeda.

It’s possible that the DSCC or the unions will dump enormous amounts of money into this race to help Fisher. But they’re probably going to be dealing with a lot of endangered Democrats across the country this fall.

Yes, Rubio has trailed by a few points lately. But he’s been off the airwaves for several months now. He’s sitting on a pile of cash and has enormous grassroots support, and Charlie Crist has the much more difficult balancing act, keeping enough of his old Republican supporters while winning over enough Democrats.

The reason Crist leads is because the Democrat is in the mid-teens in this race, and I have my doubts that either Kendrick Meek or Jeff Greene will remain at that abysmally low level through November. Once the Democrats have a nominee, one of two scenarios is likely to play out. One, Greene wins and spends millions upon millions trying to tear down Crist and win over wavering Democrats, eating away at Crist’s standing in the polls. Two, Meek wins, and does the same, but focuses on African-Americans. (Think Meek will be quiet if the DSCC fails to support the lone African-American Democratic Senate candidate this year*?) I suspect once Crist starts taking flak from both directions, you’ll see his Republican backers drift towards Rubio, and the Democrats shift back to Meek or Greene.

Is either race an absolute, 100 percent, take-it-to-the-bank lock? No, but for the Republicans to blow either one in what looks like a wave year for conservatives would be pretty surprising.

* Well, there is Alvin Greene in South Carolina, but it’s rather hard to imagine an all-out DSCC push on his behalf.

The Rob Portman for Senate campaign in Ohio sends this along:

2010 By the Numbers

$8.8 million: Cash-on-Hand

$2.65 million: Amount raised in 2nd quarter

16,621: Total number of individual donors for overall campaign

5,459: Total number of individual donors in 2nd quarter

Over 81%: Percentage of 2nd quarter contributions from Ohio

23,724: Total number of contributions from individuals for overall campaign

His Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher . . . well, he had less than a million in the bank on April 14.