Mason-Dixon is one of the pollsters I trust the most, so if they show Sharron Angle in the lead in Nevada’s GOP Senate primary, I think that’s an accurate snapshot on Primary Day Eve. Having said that, the remaining 13 percent or so undecided have to go somewhere. Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian need to hope those remaining undecided break heavily in their direction.
“Angle is the favorite at this point, but I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal,” said pollster Brad Coker. “She’s got the momentum, but there’s still 13 percent on the table.”
“Angle is benefiting from Lowden’s demise,” Coker said. “Can Lowden win? I have my doubts. At this point my money is on Angle. But if Tark pulls a rabbit out of his hat, I won’t be shocked.”
I noted earlier that some of Sharron Angle’s positions and past statements could prove quite problematic in a general election; over at Hot Air, one reader charges that I must be on the take from the Lowden campaign. Obviously not true. Beyond that, I feel bad for this guy; yeah, pal, I should only tell you the good news, and make sure to hide anything that might prove detrimental to the candidate you prefer. Remember, it’s best to head into a general election with your eyes and ears shut tightly against any information that you don’t want to hear; that’s the best way to be prepared for the inevitable avalanche of attack ads from a cash-rich Democratic incumbent.
The same reader notes that because he sees Lowden ads, the article must mean we write nice things about advertisers and bad things about candidates that don’t advertise. Wrong again. Many campaign web ads target incoming web browsers from a particular location. Right now, I don’t see Lowden ads; I’m typing this from South Carolina, and I see gubernatorial candidate Henry McMaster ads all over NRO. (Sometimes they advertise nationally; up in Virginia, I saw a lot of Marco Rubio ads.) My understanding is that many campaigns purchase ads in bulk to run on a multitude of political sites including NRO. That’s how you sometimes see ads for Democratic candidates on the site; they purchase ads on all political sites instead of just liberal ones.
Back to Nevada: I’d note that even with Angle’s flaws as a candidate, extremely well-known incumbent Harry Reid is peaking at about 43 percent, and has been at 40 percent or below for much of the year. He’s spent more than $10 million already on this campaign. His numbers remind me quite a bit of Jon Corzine, former governor of New Jersey. Corzine dumped a tsunami of attack ads against Chris Christie, and narrowed the gap some, but in the end, the voters were tired of what they were getting. Even if Angle pulls a full Rand Paul — win the primary, and then generate more controversies immediately — Reid may be too damaged to pull ahead.
This morning the Suffolk poll offers a surprising result in Nevada:
Buoyed by endorsement from top conservatives, Sharron Angle has jumped into the lead among Republicans vying in Tuesday’s primary for the right to face off against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this fall, according to a poll released Thursday.
The new poll shows Mrs. Angle at 33 percent, followed by Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian at 26 percent and [Sue] Lowden, a former Nevada state senator, with 25 percent. Several other GOP primary candidates came in at 4 percent or less.
A somewhat reassuring fact for Lowden and Tarkanian: Last fall, Suffolk’s final New Jersey poll proved well off the mark:
Though most polls are showing the New Jersey governor’s race to be dead even between incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and former U.S. Attorney and Republican challenger Chris Christie, a new poll by Suffolk University signals that Corzine (42 percent) leads comfortably over Christie (33 percent), with independent Chris Daggett trailing with 7 percent.
Republican Bob McDonnell is just days away from a decisive win over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial race, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University. McDonnell led Deeds 54 percent to 40 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
However, they were definitely in the right neighborhood in Massachusetts:
Suffolk University released a statewide poll Thursday, Jan. 14, that showed Brown (50 percent) leading Coakley (46 percent) by 4 points. The results showed a race within a margin of error of 4.38.
And there is little reason to doubt that Angle has taken off like a rocket as the primary approaches next week.
The fact that the Nevada Right to Life PAC decided to endorse Sue Lowden in Nevada’s GOP primary is not as surprising as the fact that they endorsed at all; Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, and Sharron Angle are all pretty staunchly pro-life. The Susan B. Anthony List PAC endorsed Lowden; Concerned Women PAC endorsed Angle.
Jeremy McNeil, Executive Director of Nevada Right to Life PAC, announced that the PAC has endorsed Sue Lowden in the race for United States Senate.
“Nevada Right to Life PAC is pleased that support for unborn life has been a focal point of the Republican Senate primary this year,” McNeil said. “Given the strong pro-life credentials of the three leading Republican candidates, making a decision who to endorse was difficult.”
“Replacing pro-abortion Senator Harry Reid with a pro-life senator is imperative,” McNeil said. “Harry Reid has consistently advocated a radically pro-abortion agenda. He was instrumental in blocking an amendment to prevent the federal government from subsidizing health plans that cover abortion on demand and voted to remove a previous ban on funding organizations that promote abortion overseas.”
“Sue Lowden is an excellent choice for United States Senate. In our estimation, Sue Lowden represents the best opportunity to defeat Harry Reid in November,” McNeil said. “We also believe she is the candidate who will be most effective in the passage of federal pro-life legislation. Nevada Right to Life PAC whole-heartedly supports her candidacy.”
The first University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll of the general election campaign finds Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and former Republican congressman Rob Portman are just about even in their bids for the Senate.
The poll says Fisher has 47% to 46% for Portman.
In the governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland has a slight lead over Republican challenger John Kasich.
The landline and cell phone survey puts Strickland ahead 49-44%.
The unemployment rate in Nevada is 13.7 percent; the unemployment rate in Ohio is 10.9 percent.