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Tags: Robert Hurt

I Love This Message: “Hurt . . . Congress.”



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Let’s start Election Day with a lovely anecdote from a key swing district:

Looks like the vaunted enthusiasm gap is alive and well in VA-5. I live on the southern border of Charlottesville and the county and had a 10 minute wait when I hit the polls as they opened at 6am. Talked to some folks, including a gentleman with a Republican sample ballot, and they said the line was twice around the building at 6 a.m. back in 2008. No surprise that there would be a drop off for a midterm, but it was pretty dramatic this year.

Crowd seemed to skew heavily to the typical midterm voter: Older, white and male. I’m about a mile and a half from the UVA and from downtown, so I don’t know what turnout is like out there but where I am it looks like the message of “Hurt U.S. Congress” might be catching on with voters that hit the polls in the early morning.

Tags: Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

GOP Sees Three Virginia Challengers Leading, One Trailing By Just a Bit



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There’s a new batch of polls in Virginia’s four most interesting House races.

“On Monday, September 27, ccAdvertising completed surveys to voters in four key Congressional districts in Virginia. These surveys focused on the competitive Congressional races as well as current national issues. The surveys were conducted to both landline phones and mobile phones.”

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.

Tags: Gerry Connolly , Glenn Nye , Keith Fimian , Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Scott Rigell , Tom Perriello

Latest DCCC Internal Polls Do Not Directly Quote Chip Diller



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In Virginia’s 5th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello is trailing. He’s either down by 26 percentage points, as Survey USA indicates, or down by 2, as the DCCC internal poll indicates.

So that’s why the DCCC is directing money away from Perriello — because they’re so confident he’ll win!

Tags: Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

GOP’s Hurt Leads Democrat Incumbent Perriello... 61 to 35!



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Holy…. smokes.

A new poll in the [Virginia] 5th District Congressional race continues to show a commanding lead for Republican challenger Robert Hurt.

Compared to an identical survey six weeks ago, Hurt has increased his lead over Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello by three points.

If the election were held Thursday, the News7 SurveyUSA poll indicates that Hurt would defeat Perriello 61 percent to 35 percent.

The poll gives Independent Jeff Clark two percent of the vote.

Asked of 581 Likely Voters, Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

What’s amazing is that Hurt led the last poll, 58 percent to 35 percent… and he’s building on that lead.

Tags: Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

Survey USA Giveth, Survey USA Taketh Away



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Survey USA offered Virginia Democrats terrible news earlier this week; now it offers them some good news:

A new Survey USA poll shows Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) leading Republican Morgan Griffith 52-39 in Virginia’s 9th district.  The poll shows, “Among men, the contest is tied; among women, Boucher leads by 25 points. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents split. Those with favorable opinions of the Tea Party movement back Griffith 3:1; those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party back Boucher 14:1.”

Obviously, a 13-point lead is not insurmountable, but it’s surprising in light of SurveyUSA’s other poll showing the GOP’s candidate in another Virginia district, state senator Robert Hurt, leading incumbent Democrat Rep. Tom Perriello by 23 points.

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

WOW: In VA-5, GOP’s Hurt Leads Incumbent Perriello, 58-35



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I know we’ve seen a lot of good polling news for GOP House candidates lately — I should have a big roundup in the not-too-distant future — but this one is a real eye-opener:

In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District today, 07/20/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Perriello, who defeated 6-term Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008, today trails among most demographic groups. Among men, Hurt leads by 19 points. Among women, Hurt leads by 26. White voters back Hurt 2:1; black voters back Perriello 2:1. Twice as many Democrats cross over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross over to vote Democrat. Independents break Republican. Perriello runs most strongly among Democrats, African Americans, liberals, moderates, those who have unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement, among pro-choice voters, and among those who do not own guns . . . each of which is today a minority among likely voters in VA’s 5th district.

The composition of likely voters for this survey is 42% Republican, 27% Democratic. This composition reflects an energized Republican base and an enthusiasm gap for Democrats, evident in SurveyUSA polling from around the country. If the electorate is more Democratic than shown in SurveyUSA’s model here, the Republican still wins, though his margin of victory is less. For example, if hypothetically there were an even number of Democrats and Republicans in the likely voter model, Republican challenger Hurt wins today by 11 points, not 23.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from Virginia’s 5th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 07/16/10 through 07/19/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 591 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives.

I love how Survey USA foresees the griping about the sample and shifts it to show that Hurt is still way ahead even if adjusted.

If swing districts that were 50-50 in 2008 now have Republicans winning by 11, it’s going to be a phenomenal year for the GOP. If it really is a 23-percentage-point margin, we may run out of adjectives for what November has in store for us.

Tags: Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

Virginia’s GOP Nominees for U.S. House Become Clearer Tonight . . .



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Virginia’s polls close early, and they’re pretty quick about reporting results. At this hour, with 51 percent of precincts reporting, Gov. Bob McDonnell–endorsed Scott Rigell looks like the man who will take on Glenn Nye, a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district, a race recently rated by Cook as a “toss up.”

State senator Robert Hurt appears likely to be the GOP choice to take on Tom Perriello, another toss-up-rated race.

In my home district, Matthew Berry and J. Patrick Murray are in a tight race to take on Democratic heavyweight Jim Moran. Murray leads by 16 votes out of more than 10,000.

And in another competitive northern Virginia contest, Keith Fimian looks like the pick over Pat Herrity to take on Gerry Connolly in this heavily suburban district.

Tags: J. Patrick Murray , Matthew Berry , Robert Hurt , Scott Rigell

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