I think New Jersey Democrat John Adler is finding his path to reelection… blocked.

The lead has switched in the race for New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.  Republican challenger Jon Runyan now leads Democratic incumbent John Adler by 48% to 43% among likely voters in this district.  In a poll released on September 30, Adler held a nominal 42% to 39% edge.

Runyan has a sizable 50% to 37% advantage among independents.  Last month, Adler had a 43% to 32% edge with this voting bloc.  Runyan has also widened his lead in the Ocean County portion of the district to 54% to 37%, and nearly evened the playing field in Burlington County and Cherry Hill – trailing Adler there by just 3 points, 44% to 47%.

“There was some concern by Republicans that a so-called Tea Party candidate would hurt their nominee’s chances.  If anything, it may be hurting Adler,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll asked half of the respondents the vote question with Pete DeStefano identified as the New Jersey Tea Party candidate and half were offered a generic “other candidate” as a third choice.  Either way it was asked, all third party candidates combined receive no more than 5% of the vote.

Furthermore, 51% of likely voters have heard about the controversy surrounding the Tea Party candidate, who according to published reports has been aided by Democrats close to the Adler campaign.  Among those aware of the controversy, about half (49%) think that Adler’s campaign was involved in the DeStefano candidacy.  And among those who think Adler’s people were involved, 72% say that it has made them think worse of the Congressman.

The NRCC offers a memo, one week out.

What jumped out at me:

• “Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real.” Of course, many key states and districts have more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, so the GOP had better turn out better than their registration level.
• The memo specifically mentions, “New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District.” Hard to believe they would mention the districts of John Adler, Martin Heinrich, Mike McIntyre, and John Salazar if they didn’t think they had a real good shot at knocking off those incumbents.
• The memo also refers to “unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi.”
• “The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.”

The full memo:

#MORE#

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS

DATE: OCTOBER 26, 2010

SUBJECT: CLOSING THE DEAL: PUTTING THE PIECES IN PLACE FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY

With only a week to go until Election Day, Democrats have found themselves in a position they hoped to avoid from day one. As Republicans continue to expand the playing field and put races away early, Democrats are constantly plugging holes in the dam while resources grow scarce. After a natural post-Labor Day tightening in races across the country, developments at both the national and district-by-district levels confirm that Republicans are finishing strong. A few weeks ago, we found ourselves on the precipice of victory. Now we are closing the deal, moving toward accomplishing our ultimate goal of retiring Nancy Pelosi and capturing a new Republican majority.

While Democrats are still attempting to claim momentum, reality is far different. The Democrats’ ‘triage’ strategy is cutting off outgoing incumbents at a rapid pace, all but conceding losses in key races. The Rothenberg Political Report already rates 22 Democrat-held seats as either ‘Lean Republican’ or ‘Republican Favored’ with another 14 Democrat-held seats rated as ‘Toss Up/Tilt Republican.’ Public and private polling shows that Republicans are already on their way to winning in nearly 40 races. With a week to go, competitive races are moving quickly away from the Democrats and we have captured critical momentum that will play a large role in breaking the 39-seat barrier.

Early results are promising. Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real. In toss-up races like New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District, early Republican enthusiasm foretells a painful election night for Democrats who thought they were immune to the coming wave.

We need look no farther than the Democrats’ spending strategy to see the extent of their problems. As Republicans continue to push the borders of the playing field, the DCCC and its allies are forced to spend money in races they expected would be locked up weeks ago. Even more troubling for Democrats is the fact that many of these races are even competitive in the first place. With the NRCC on offense against unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen has described his party’s challenge as playing a game of ‘Whac-a-Mole.’ The DCCC has scrambled to follow the NRCC into many of these districts to play defense in an unsuccessful effort to stop the bleeding.

The national environment has presented the extraordinary opportunity for Republicans to capture the majority, but the NRCC’s record-setting fundraising has allowed us to capitalize and remain on offense. The NRCC raised $11.2 million in September 2010 alone — its best fundraising month since 2006. We followed that effort by outraising the DCCC once again in the first half of October. While the NRCC is successfully executing a plan to spend $54 million in approximately 90 races, Republican candidates are turning in stellar fundraising performances as well. The Hotline calculates that 34 of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats were outraised by their Republican challengers last quarter. The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.

Democrats are message-less. There is no longer enough time for them to coalesce behind a message that resonates with middle class voters. Instead, they have desperately turned to attacking outside organizations who dare oppose their anti-business views. Democrats had no complaints when their liberal allies were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on their behalf in the 2006 and 2008 elections. They also conveniently neglect to mention the fact that labor unions continue to outspend conservative groups as well. With their hypocritical attempts to distract voters with scare tactics and side topics, Democrats are only reinforcing voters’ perception that they have absolutely no plan to create jobs. Their message should be taken for what it is: Democrats are laying the groundwork for a massive Election Night loss and they are in need of scapegoat. Unfortunately, reality doesn’t match their rhetoric.

With the playing field much more balanced over the closing weeks of the campaign, Democrats are forced to defend their unpopular agenda in Washington — a fight they know they can’t win. The final unemployment numbers before election day that were announced earlier this month confirmed that Democrats will be held accountable by voters for their reckless job-killing policies. Last week’s state-by-state unemployment numbers reinforced that reality from coast to coast. As Americans are desperately seeking leadership in Washington that is willing to address a struggling economy, Democrats pushed forward with a radical big-government spending agenda that stood in the way of economic recovery and only made matters worse. Though many vulnerable Democrats are running away from this record on the campaign trail, the American people will not soon forget about this binge of unprecedented spending at the expense of a healthy economy.

Make no mistake: Nancy Pelosi’s days as Speaker of the House are numbered. Thanks to nearly two years of hard work on the campaign front and a renewed commitment to listening to the American people, Republicans are poised for a significant victory on November 2. With just days to go until Election Day, we are faced with a historic opportunity to take control of Congress away from Nancy Pelosi and put a stop to the Democrats’ reckless job-killing agenda. Republicans intend to seize this opportunity.

It’s not as eye-opening as the recent polls showing GOP challengers leading Democratic incumbents in the House, but Jon Runyan has to feel pretty good about this early poll:

U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) holds a slender lead over Republican challenger Jon Runyan, among all registered voters according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this morning. 

Adler leads Runyan 31% to 25%, with third party candidate Peter DeStefano polling at 4%. Thirty-four percent of respondents say they “don’t know” who they support, while another 6% say they will not vote in the Congressional race.

In a mano-a-mano, Adler leads Runyan 35% to 28%, according to the poll, with 23% in the “don’t know” category and 13% not voting… The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

“It is extremely hard in August to predict who will really vote in November,” said poll director Dr. David Redlawsk. Thus, while a simple likely voter screen suggests that Adler does better, we do not put a lot of stock in such a screen at this point. It remains too early to be sure who will be most motivated to turn out on election day.” 

The poll reports that Adler leads among all registered voters, but Runyan pulls just ahead (36 to 35%) among voters “who are paying the most attention to the campaign.”

These strike me as pretty weak numbers for an incumbent, even a first-termer.

Elsewhere on NRO, Jesse Naiman has a nice profile of Jon Runyan, the former Philadelphia Eagle running for Congress as a Republican in New Jersey, seeking to replace Rep. John Adler.

Apparently there’s a recent odd development in this race, and those noted right-wingers on the Star Ledger editorial board — for those of you not familiar with New Jersey, I’m being sarcastic — are noticing:

Who the heck is Peter DeStefano?

Well, he claims to be an independent tea party loyalist. But the Runyan camp believes he is a fake, an Adler plant designed to siphon Runyan’s support. They might have a point: No organized tea party group had ever heard of DeStefano before he announced his candidacy.

DeStefano says “it’s ridiculous” to suggest he is working with the Adler campaign. He calls himself a former Reagan Republican. But as the evidence piles up, he sounds more like an Adler Republican. Although the Adler campaign insists it is not behind DeStefano’s candidacy, longtime Adler supporters and donors signed DeStefano’s petition to get on the ballot.

“No staff member on John Adler’s campaign has contacted Peter DeStefano or his campaign,” Adler campaign manager Geoff Mackler said. That may be true. But campaigns can use free agents to do dirty work, too.

. . . When asked about his campaign, DeStefano said he had been “going to diners and Wawa, telling people I’m running for Congress.”

So, in an election involving tens of thousands of voters, with control of the House of Representatives and a nation’s legislative agenda at stake, DeStefano wants voters to believe he’s making his march to Washington one warmed-over chili dog at a time.

Even with a 32-ounce soft drink, that’s a little hard to swallow.

This doesn’t count for a ton, but I like the idea that a GOP challenger’s ground game is up to speed: With 99 percent of precincts reporting, in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, Jon Runyan, the former Philadelphia Eagled All-Pro guard had a bit more than 14,000 votes in his GOP primary; incumbent Democrat John Adler had about 10,000 in his.

Sure, Adler won by a wider margin, 75 percent to 25 percent, while Runyan won 60 percent to 40 percent. And sure, there was more interest in the somewhat competitive GOP primary. But the name of the game is to get your supporters out to vote on Election Day, and I wonder if John Adler’s get-out-the-vote operation was a little sleepy today.