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Tags: Tim Huelskamp

Rounding Up What Happened Yesterday . . .



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KANSAS

Current GOP congressman Jerry Moran is very likely to be Kansas’s next senator. Lisa Johnston appears to be the Democrats’ sacrificial lamb.

Republican Tim Huelskamp is likely to be the next congressman from Kansas’s 1st district; it’s an R+23 district.

Stephene Moore, wife of current 3rd district congressman Dennis Moore, is the Democratic nominee in that district this year. Kevin Yoder won a crowded Republican primary and will probably be favored, but this one isn’t a done deal; the district tilts moderately Republican.

(Grover voice: “Mmm. Yoder. You seek Yoder.”)

In Kansas’s 4th district, Republican Mike Pompeo will take on Raj Goyle in an R+14 district.

MICHIGAN

This year is generating some results that are just eye-popping for the GOP. More than 1 million voted in the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan, while only 525,000 voted in the Democratic one. One could argue that the Republican primary fight was a bit more dramatic, but that doesn’t explain the nearly 2:1 margin.

Last night I mentioned that businessman Rick Snyder was the (somewhat) surprise winner in the GOP gubernatorial primary over two big names in the state, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and state attorney general Mike Cox. Snyder, relentlessly focused on Michigan’s dire economy, is perceived as less socially conservative than the other options, while Democrat Virg Bernero is deemed the more liberal option over state house speaker Andy Dillon. For conservatives, that may be mildly disappointing, but with Democrats conceding the middle, there’s potential for a big win by Snyder, with implications in closer races down-ticket.

The Republican primary in Michigan’s 1st district is probably going to need a recount: The AP puts Dan Benishek 12 votes ahead of Jason Allen.

One of Benishek’s guys tells me:

In the last two cycles where there was a competitive statewide primary, the total Republican vote was right around 35,000. Last night, 71,069 Republican votes were cast in this race. In our campaign’s last poll, the 4 miscellaneous candidates were splitting less than 10% of the vote. Last night they got about 25% of the vote. This is probably due to how negative the race got in the closing week, and folks decided to vote for somebody they’d heard of, but hadn’t heard anything bad about. A recount in this district is going to be gruesome. Over 500 precincts across 31 counties spanning two peninsulas and two time zones . . . Ugh.

It’s close in Michigan’s 2nd district as well; fewer than a thousand votes separate Bill Huizenga and Jay Riemersma.

State representative Justin Amash won the GOP primary in the 3rd district; he should be favored in this R+6 district where Vernon Ehlers is retiring.

Former congressman Tim Walberg won the contested GOP primary in Michigan’s 7th district. Time for a rematch with Mark Schauer in a nominally Republican district that scores R+2.

Rocky Raczkowski won a hard-fought GOP primary and will face Gary Peters in a nominally Democrat district that scores D+2.

I’m a little intrigued that Michael Switalski, a term-limited state senator who emphasized runaway spending, took 24 percent of the primary vote against Democrat Sander Levin in the 12th district. This incumbent, the 78-year-old older brother of Sen. Carl Levin, has been in office since 1983. Republican Don Volaric faces an uphill climb in this Democratic district (D+12), but it appears there’s some frustration out there that he can tap.

Seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of convicted former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, lost her primary last night. But I’m sure that scandal-plagued African-American incumbents representing the inner city have nothing to worry about, right, Congressman Rangel?

MISSOURI

The big news in the Show Me Sstate was the referendum on Obamacare and the turnout in the respective Senate primaries.

But one big House race in the state is in the 4th district, where 78-year-old Ike Skelton is a Democrat who has represented a GOP-leaning district since 1977. The contrast will be sharpened in the general election, where he will face the much younger Vicki Hartzler.

Auctioneer Billy Long won a contested GOP primary and will take on Democrat Scott Eckersley in the district that Roy Blunt represented for seven terms.

Tags: Kevin Yoder , Tim Huelskamp

Tomorrow’s a Big Decision Day in Kansas, Missouri, and Michigan



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Tomorrow is primary day in Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri.

In Kansas, Republicans will pick their state’s next senator. Okay, technically, there’s a general election in November, but in this GOP-heavy state, the former GOP congressman who wins the primary, either Jerry Moran or Todd Tiahrt, has a strong wind at his back.

Retiring U.S. senator (and former presidential candidate) Sam Brownback is expected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary; presuming he does, he will take on Democratic state senator Tom Holland.

The departures of Moran and Tiahrt have set off scrums in their heavily Republican districts. In Moran’s district, there is a crowded field of Republicans, with Tracey Mann, Tim Huelskamp, and Jim Barnett the leading competitors.

In Tiahrt’s district, Mike Pompeo, Wink Hartman, and state senator Jean Schodorf are fighting it out. The winner will face either state representative Raj Goyle or Robert Tillman. Meanwhile, nine Republicans are competing for the nomination in the open-seat race in Kansas’s 3rd district; Stephene Moore, the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, is expected to get the Democrats’ nod.

In Missouri, frontrunners Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan should win their Senate primaries easily. The House race in this state that looks most competitive is the one involving longtime Democrat Rep. Ike Skelton; either former state representative Vicky Hartzler or state senator Bill Stouffer will earn the right to take on Skelton in November. Both have demonstrated solid fundraising.

(UPDATE: There’s also a bit of a GOP scrum in the race for Blunt’s old House district. Eight Republicans are competing; state senator Jack Goodman, auctioneer Billy Long, and state senator Gary Nodler have had the most fundraising success. It is a very Republican (R+17) district.)

In Michigan, the primary fields for the governor’s race once looked like rugby matches on both sides. Today Lansing mayor Virg Bernero appears to be the most likely Democratic nominee; the GOP field still looks like a tough three-way fight between businessman Rick Snyder, state attorney general Mike Cox, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra. For much of the year, the GOP options have led Democrats in head-to-head matchups, but starting Wednesday, the match-up is no longer hypothetical.

In the district of retiring Democrat Bart Stupak, six Republicans are competing for the nomination. Dr. Dan Benishek rode some early Tea Party and Obamacare-fueled momentum, but I’m told to not count out state senator Jason Allen. This seat is winnable, but not easily winnable, for the GOP in November.

There’s another crowded field in the GOP-leaning 2nd district that Hoekstra is departing; former NFL star Jay Riemersma stands out for his celebrity and fundraising success. (UPDATE: A reader argues that his University of Michigan football career is more relevant in this neck of the woods.) The state’s 3rd district is also losing its congressman, as Vernon Ehlers is retiring. Five Republicans are competing; state representative Justin Amash, state senator Bill Hardiman, and former Kent County commissioner Steve Heacock are the frontrunners. The winner is likely to be favored in November.

Michigan’s 7th district is nominally Republican and currently represented by Democrat Mark Schauer, making this one of the more competitive House races to watch in this region in November. Either Brian John Rooney or former U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg should have a healthy shot in November in this district.

Michigan’s 9th district is nominally Democratic, and Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is sitting on a ton of campaign funds. The two Republicans who have the most resources to compete are Rocky Raczkowski and Paul Welday.

One interesting note on the other side of the aisle: Some Democrats think Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of the incarcerated former mayor of Detroit Kwame Kilpatrick, could lose her primary to state senator Hansen Clarke. Don’t get your hopes too high about GOP chances in November; this Detroit-based district scores D+31 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Still, if Detroit voters held a Democratic lawmaker accountable for years of misery, the rest of them might finally get the Grosse Pointe.

Tags: Jean Schodorf , Jerry Moran , Jim Barnett , Mike Pompeo , Sam Brownback , Tim Huelskamp , Todd Tiahrt , Tracey Mann , Wink Hartman

Sacrificial Lamb in Kansas Gets Smidgen of Good News



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Finally, some good news for Kansas Democrats. The sexual-harassment suit filed against their candidate in the 1st congressional district, Alan Jilka, has been settled out of court!

A slew of Republicans, including state senator Jim Barnett, state senator Tim Huelskamp, and Rob Wasinger, are competing in this R+23 district; the incumbent, Jerry Moran, is running for Senate.

Tags: Jim Barnett , Rob Wasinger , Tim Huelskamp

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