Tags: Renee Ellmers

Clay Aiken: Not Really Following the VA Scandal


Resolved: Any candidate for federal office who says he “hasn’t paid attention” to the VA scandal at this late date must be defeated in November.

This means you, former American Idol near-winner Clay Aiken, hoping to represent North Carolina’s second congressional district. Appearing on the Today show this morning, Aiken was asked if he thinks Secretary Shinseki should resign. “I think we have a lot of people who are making decisions without being in the room,” he answered. “I’m not going to be one of those folks who wasn’t in the hearings, hasn’t paid attention to those details and wasn’t privy to that stuff in making decisions for that.”

He also helpfully says he thinks the VA “should be possibly not in the health-care business so much, as in the veterans-care business, and taking care of the needs of veterans.”

Way to dispel the notion that you’re an uninformed music star who’s hoping to turn his fading music fame into a congressional seat, pal.

Incumbent Renee Ellmers is a favorite in this Republican-leaning district.

Hat tip: Ace.

Tags: Clay Aiken , Renee Ellmers

While I Was Out, Some Votes Were Counted . . .


Periodically on the NR cruise, guests would ask me for the latest on the various unresolved races. I had to tell them I had no real updates; I had been on a boat with them, with spotty Internet access.

While I was gone, here’s what we know is resolved:

  • Barring some astonishingly unexpected turn of events, Lisa Murkowski will be sworn in for another term as senator from Alaska.
  • Republican Renee Ellmers defeated incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge in North Carolina’s 2nd congressional district. In the end, Etheridge choked.
  • Republican Joe Walsh defeated incumbent Melissa Bean in Illinois’s 8th district. He’s an eagle, that guy.

And now the not quite resolved:

  • In New York’s 25th district, there’s promising news for Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle: “Republican Ann Marie Buerkle increased her lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei by a seemingly insurmountable 567 votes on Sunday when Wayne County completed its unofficial tally of absentee votes.”
  • In Texas, the recounting hasn’t added up to much change in the totals: “A ballot recount in South Texas demanded by U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz is nearly complete, but he’s still trailing Republican challenger Blake Farenthold. Only about 15,000 absentee and early ballots have yet to be re-tabulated in Cameron County, which includes Brownsville, in the 27th Congressional District race. Farenthold’s spokesman said officials expect to finish on Monday. All the other votes have been recounted, and Ortiz trails by about 800 votes, roughly the same tally on Election Day. The recount so far has resulted in each candidate gaining or losing only a few votes.”
  • In New York’s 1st district, Democrat Tim Bishop appears to have taken the lead through a count of absentee ballots: “After four days of absentee ballot counting in the race for the First Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop, D – Southampton, took the lead from Randy Altschuler, the Republican challenger and businessman from St. James. According to spokesman Jon Schneider, Bishop leads by 15 votes. Altschuler started the absentee ballot count, which began on Tuesday, with a 383-vote lead.”
  • Finally, the outlook for California’s Republicans appears to be some tough math: “U.S. Rep. Jim Costa of Fresno had a 2,742 vote edge over Republican Andy Vidak, a political novice from Hanford, in the 20th Congressional District. Costa had 51.6 percent of the vote to Vidak’s 48.4 percent in the district that includes all of Kings County and parts of Kern and Fresno counties, according to the secretary of state’s office. . . . Kings County had finished its count, Fresno County tallied about 99 percent of its ballots as of Friday, and Kern County planned to release the count from about 4,500 remaining ballots on Monday.”
  • “To the north, U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney of Pleasanton was leading by 1,783 votes over Republican David Harmer, an attorney from San Ramon. His lead in the 11th Congressional District was less than 1 percent of all votes cast.”

And we may get a chance to kick around Phil Hare again: “Defeated less than three weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, D-Ill., said Friday he’s thinking about running again in 2012. He said he probably wouldn’t make a decision for at least another couple of months.”

Tags: Andy Vidak , Blake Farenthold , David Harmer , Joe Walsh , Lisa Murkowski , Phil Hare , Renee Ellmers

The Unresolved House Races, Part Two


I checked in with someone who knows the ins and outs of the Renee Ellmers campaign in North Carolina’s 2nd congressional district, and that campaign, too, is cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the still-unresolved race.

Right now, Ellmers leads Democrat Bob Etheridge by a bit more than 1,600 votes. She will need to lead by around 1,880 votes to break the 1 percent mark; if the margin is less than 1 percent, there will be an automatic recount. Friday is the deadline for having provisional and absentee ballots counted; it is estimated that there are 3,000 or so waiting to be resolved. Roughly a third are in Ellmers’s strongest county, and the others are in counties where Etheridge performed better.

Friday’s certification will determine whether the campaign will have to fight on through an automatic recount; lawyers are ready.

The fund-raising response for recount expenses is characterized as “amazing.”

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

The NRCC Debuts ‘Still Counting’


The NRCC has set up a page to contribute to all of their contenders whose races have gone into overtime, so to speak: Still Counting.

They say the vote totals on the page will be updated as quickly as possible. The short version is Renee Ellmers (NC-2) leads by more than 1,600 votes; Blake Farenthold (TX-27), Randy Altschuler (NY-01), Ann Marie Buerkle (NY-25), Andy Vidak (CA-20), and Joe Walsh (IL-08) lead by several hundred votes each; David Harmer (CA-11) and Andy Barr (KY-06) trail by several hundred votes each.

Tags: Andy Barr , Andy Vidak , Ann Marie Buerkle , Blake Farenthold , David Harmer , Joe Walsh , Randy Altschuler , Renee Ellmers

Help Congresswoman-Elect Renee Ellmers, Just One More Time


Help Renee Ellmers make sure her Election Night victory remains a victory. Those election-law attorneys don’t pay for themselves, you know.

You know, I’m old enough to remember when losing a primary meant you stopped campaigning, and when having fewer votes when all the precincts reported was characterized as a loss, not just a first step in establishing a baseline for “suddenly found” votes.

Come on, Bob Etheridge. You had a lead, and all the advantages of incumbency, and you blew it. Just admit that you choked.

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

Finally, a New Poll on Ellmers vs. Etheridge


I’m working on my final list of projected winners in the races. (Which races? All of them.)

One of the toughest ones was Renee Ellmers against the North Carolina Strangler, Rep. Bob Etheridge. My head said that a longtime incumbent, with plenty of resources, should be able to hang on by his fingernails, even against a challenger as appealing as Ellmers. My heart said no, she’s too good a candidate, and the district is too conservative to accept a guy who embarrassed himself with bizarre, confrontational behavior.

But now my heart has a poll to cite. Civitas hasn’t released it yet, but the headline is up already:

Civitas Poll: Ellmers Leads Etheridge Heading into Final Weekend

I’m picking Ellmers.

UPDATE: In case you hadn’t seen it:

Democratic incumbent Congressman Bob Etheridge’s electoral future appears to be in jeopardy as he trails Republican challenger Renee Ellmers by 5 percentage points with less than one week until the election.

According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent.  Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.

Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers’ lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent.

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

‘As long as Obama’s in the White House, we can’t let a Democrat represent us in Congress.’


Elsewhere in North Carolina, one of my favorite candidates, Renee Ellmers, is up on the air, hitting incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge for cutting Medicare.

Her message that can work in a lot of districts: “As long as Obama’s in the White House, we can’t let a Democrat represent us in Congress.”

Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security is hitting Etheridge hard with this ad that uses the YouTube footage effectively:

Americans for Job Security plans on spending a mere $800,000 on this race.

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

In North Carolina, Renee Ellmers Goes Up on the Air, Talking Ground Zero Mosque


I think that by and large, North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Renee Ellmers should hammer incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge on jobs, jobs, jobs.

But he’s been claiming his GOP opponent is extreme, and so I suppose there’s some value in her staking out a position that is mainstream — even if many media voices consider it ipso facto religious bigotry:

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

Another Four Women Get Nods From Sarah Palin


This week, Sarah Palin endorsed a quartet of Republican women running for the U.S. House:

Martha Roby served on the Montgomery City Council where she fought tax increases and worked hard to reduce government spending. She’s now running to represent Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District with a strong message of reform to get our country back on the right track. Please join me in supporting this hardworking, proud mother of two by visiting her website at and following her on Facebook and Twitter.

Renee Ellmers is a true citizen-politician running in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District. Having worked in the health care industry all her life, she joined countless other concerned Americans at the town hall meetings last summer to protest the disastrous Obamacare legislation. And she didn’t stop there! Renee decided to join the ranks of patriotic mothers across the country who have the courage to run for office this year and fight to make sure our children have as bright a future as we were given. Renee has an uphill battle against a truly out of touch incumbent who made news not too long ago when he was caught on video assaulting a student who asked him if he supported the Obama agenda. Simple enough question, but this Democrat Congressman who’s been in Washington for 14 years turned violent rather than answer it. My point with this is that Renee is willing to answer that question. She supports a commonsense conservative agenda which will put our country back on sound fiscal footing. Please visit Renee’s website at and follow her on Facebook and Twitter.

Jackie Walorski will make an excellent representative of Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District, having been born and raised there and serving as a state representative for the past five years. She knows the people, she knows the issues that matter to them, and most importantly, she knows what she stands for – limited government, fiscal restraint, and a proper respect for our Constitution. The incumbent Democrat she’s running against has already launched his first attack ad against her, so I hope you’ll join me in standing with Jackie. She truly knows what public service means. Please visit her website at and follow her on Facebook and Twitter.

Vicky Hartzler is determined to shake things up in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District. She ran an underdog campaign to win her primary and is now determined to challenge a 17-term Democrat incumbent who has long lost touch with the good people of Missouri. Vicky grew up on her family farm and is still a farmer with her husband. Her diverse background includes being a teacher, a state legislator, a grassroots organizer, a successful small business owner, and a proud mom of a wonderful daughter. She’s a dynamic commonsense conservative who is running to get our economy and long-term fiscal security back on track for her daughter and all of our children. Please visit this farmer’s daughter’s website and learn more about Vicky at and follow her on Facebook and Twitter.

Tags: Jackie Walorski , Martha Roby , Renee Ellmers , Sarah Palin , Vicky Hartzler

How Do You Find the Most Underfunded 20?


Over on the home page, I take a look at 20 House races where a donation to a GOP candidate might make the biggest difference.

The piece was partially inspired by readers who write in to me, saying they have a limited amount to donate and want to make sure they get the most “bang for the buck.” Now, I don’t endorse (nor do I have a hand in National Review’s endorsements), nor do I think I’m here to tell you who to vote for, and I figure the same thing goes for telling you which candidates deserve donations. You guys don’t need me telling you how to spend your own money.

(By the way, have you subscribed to the magazine and NRO Digital? Bought your tickets for the NR cruise? Donated to our fundraising drive? Sponsored our advertisers? Okay, other than that, I don’t tell you how to spend your own money.)

But not all races are created equal, and certain House races fit a certain profile — a promising GOP candidate, a district with demographics that make a GOP win a possibility, and a Democratic incumbent with some vulnerabilities but with enormous cash reserves. In most of these cases, I would argue that the Republican challenger doesn’t need to outraise the incumbent, just to raise enough so that they can make sure their message gets out on a comparable scale. Other factors (dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, anger over health care, highly motivated GOP voters) should be enough to put them over the top.

Obviously, self-funders who could write themselves a check were off the list. I didn’t want to pick promising candidates who faced truly enormous financial disparities — say, Anna Little, who faces a 256-to-1 ratio with longtime New Jersey incumbent Frank Pallone — and looked for candidates who had already demonstrated some ability to raise funds but who had spent their reserves during competitive primaries. In some of these races, the issue of funds is fundamental because of the high cost of television advertising in that district. After chewing over the issue with consultants and strategists who are watching this year’s House races closely, I came up with those 20.

I’m sure a lot of folks can make a strong case for some other ones; also, it’s worth noting that these races are constantly changing and evolving. A few months ago, Renee Ellmers’s bid against Rep. Bob Etheridge, North Carolina Democrat, probably wouldn’t have made the list; one “who are you?” neck-grabbing encounter and a subsequent poll changed the dynamic of that race. Between now and November, one of these candidates may implode, or other House races may suddenly appear much more competitive. Perhaps I’ll do a sequel.

UPDATE: I figure this morning 20 campaigns are happy to be on the list and getting the attention of NRO readers, but worried about being labeled “underfunded”; another 410 Republican House candidates are saying, why not me?

Tags: 2010 , Anna Little , Renee Ellmers

Quite a Few GOP Challengers Are a Bit Cash-Poor Compared to Their Rivals


Quarterly fundraising numbers are coming out in dribs and drabs.

My initial assessment is that a lot of Republican campaigns are at least mildly underfunded, and in some cases, quite underfunded. I’m sure this comment will bring a lot of campaigns to my e-mailbox and phone, saying, “No, no, we’re doing fine! We’re comfortable where we are! But send some cash anyway!” Of course, money is far from the most important factor in a campaign.

There are some GOP challengers who are doing fantastic.

In Florida, Marco Rubio has had two phenomenal quarters and has outraised Charlie Crist this past quarter; he still has a cash-on-hand disadvantage, although I suspect that will narrow further. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey has proven a throughly effective fundraiser — I suspect it’s because I keep seeing his ads on NRO — and has twice as much cash on hand as Joe Sestak. In Nevada, Sharron Angle is guaranteed to be outspent, but with that caveat, she’s actually doing pretty well, raising $2.6 million in a quarter. Her cash-on-hand disadvantage is still $1.8 million to $9 million.

Then there’s the North Carolina phenom Ilario Pantano, who’s outraising a longtime incumbent almost 2 to 1:

For the quarter, the Pantano campaign raised $211,720 compared to $114,119 for Congressman McIntyre. Pantano raised over $100,000 from supporters in the 7th District and outraised McIntyre by a better than 5 to 1 margin in the district. Since entering the race on January 27th, Pantano has raised $320,930. Over that same time period, McIntyre has only raised $213,243.

So which GOP candidates are looking a bit low on cash after this quarter?

Mike Kelly looks like he has the skills to be a strong challenger in Pennsylvania’s 3rd district. It’s not a terribly expensive district, but a 10-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage for incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper is ominous.

In the neighboring 4th district, Jason Altmire is on everybody’s list of vulnerable Democrats to watch, but GOP challenger Keith Rothfus has to make up a 7-to-1 cash-on-hand disadvantage.

In Pennsylvania’s 8th district, I have little doubt that Mike Fitzpatrick will give incumbent Democrat Patrick Murphy a tough challenge, but he’s still looking at a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand disadvantage.

And in the 10th district, Tom Marino has only about $11,000 on hand, going up against Chris Carney, another incumbent who looks beatable under the right circumstances.

In West Virginia’s 3rd district, Elliot “Spike” Maynard appears positioned to give Nick Rahall a stronger-than-usual push, but it will be tough to overcome a 15-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage.

Close to my neck of the woods, an expensive, tough primary left Republican Keith Fimian with about $271,000 on hand, while incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly has more than $1.2 million. I actually think Morgan Griffith has a terrific shot against incumbent Rick Boucher in Virginia’s 9th district, but Boucher’s sitting on a stockpile of $2 million.

In North Carolina’s 2nd district, Renee Ellmers is a strong candidate, but she’s still financially outgunned against Bob “Who are you?” Etheridge. I can’t believe Jeff Miller, the Republican running against Heath Shuler in North Carolina’s deeply conservative 11th district, is facing a 21-to-1 cash-on-hand disadvantage.

When you run against the House Budget Committee chairman, you’re probably going to be outspent, but Mick Mulvaney is at roughly a 3-to-1 disadvantage against John Spratt in South Carolina’s 5th district.

Mind you, this is just perusing the filings for East Coast states that have had their primaries already. As I said, money isn’t everything, and some of these candidates will be able to count on help from party committees and independent groups that prefer them over their rivals. But a year where the atmosphere is fantastic for the GOP is not yet translating to great finances for every GOP candidate. Of course, perhaps it’s hard to raise money in this economy. (Perhaps this is all a brilliant gambit by President Obama and congressional Democrats: mismanage the economy so badly that no opponent can raise any money!)

Some may interpret this post as a “hey, give to these candidates” appeal. Nope, my job is not to tell you where to send your money — er, besides subscribing to National Review, helping during our pledge drive, going on the cruise, and advertising on the site and in the magazine — but if you do want to donate to your preferred candidate, do so. But I actually think volunteering for a campaign can be more effective; money can buy things, but volunteers can do things.

Tags: Ilario Pantano , Keith Fimian , Mick Mulvaney , Mike Fitzpatrick , Mike Kelly , Renee Ellmers , Spike Maynard , Tom Marino

Renee Ellmers Answers Questions, Declines to Grab Anyone’s Neck


I just met with Renee Ellmers, the Republican challenger to Rep. Bob “Who are you? Who are you?” Etheridge, North Carolina Democrat.

She notes that for all of the attention on the infamous video of Etheridge getting physical with a young man questioning him, she thinks the bigger turning point in the race was the passage of Obamacare, a vote that crystallized the difference between Etheridge’s conservative, good-ol’-boy persona in the district and his reliable loyalty to an increasingly liberal House Democratic leadership. On the video, the importance “is less the incident than the theme” of the arrogance of power, she said. (Having said that, every time a Democrat has an off-key or worse moment with a constituent, like Pete Stark or Ciro Rodriguez, she noted the Etheridge video gets played again, and helps her campaign a bit more.)

Despite being an R+2 district, this race has not, until very recently, been on most observers’ lists of competitive races, which Ellmers attributes to the incumbent’s recent healthy margins of victory. No polling has been conducted since one a week after the video, showing Ellmers up by a single point.

Her campaign manager, Al Lytton, notes that perhaps the more significant number in that poll was that Ellmers leads among independents by 10 percentage points.

She noted that a lot of the recent non-economic issues have fed into voters’ anxiety about the economy — the health-care bill will make employees more expensive, illegal immigration exacerbates concerns of low-income workers, farmers and businesses worry about the impact of cap-and-trade on their energy costs, and the reaction to the oil spill shakes the public’s faith that the government can respond to crises with any sense of urgency. She calls the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against the state of Arizona for its immigration law “ridiculous” and charges that it wastes taxpayer money twice over, wasting federal taxpayers’ money for the DOJ suit and Arizona residents’ tax dollars to defend it.

Ellmers is a pro-gun concealed-carry holder who hoping the NRA will take a more active role against Etheridge, who is rated “F” by the organization.

Also, I was able to ask her, while recording her on video, whether she fully supports the Obama agenda. No neck holds, grappling, or “hugs” ensued.

(The audio quality is not terrific, I admit.)

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

The Open Window for Renee Ellmers


Over on the home page, a detailed look a the dramatically different political landscape in North Carolina’s 2nd district, where Republican Renee Ellmers seeks to knock off Rep. Bob “Who are you? Who are you? Who are you?” Etheridge.

When I began the piece, it seemed like there was a pile of data arguing Etheridge would be pretty tough to knock off, even with the infamous video now out there. But there’s now one poll showing Ellmers ahead by a point and full of bad news for Etheridge; there’s a rumor of a pre-incident poll that put the Democrat narrowly ahead, and I’ll bet there will be more polling in this district in the weeks to come. The guys at PPP are right that this most recent poll represents the voters’ initial reaction and that numbers could change, but the video has now opened a window of opportunity for Ellmers. Considering the district voters’ views on the health-care bill, TARP, and Obama, she has some big issues for contrast.

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

Bob Etheridge Now Trailing?


Much more on this in a bit: Among voters in North Carolina’s 2nd congressional district, Republican Renee Ellmers 39 percent, Democrat incumbent Bob Etheridge 38 percent, Libertarian Tom Rose 15 percent, and 11 percent undecided.

UPDATE: This is a district where Obama’s approval is at 38 percent and disapproval is at 55 percent. Civitas finds that 84 percent of voters in the district heard about the shoving incident; 45 percent of these said it made them less likely to support Etheridge, 14 percent said more likely, and 39 percent said no difference. 

ANOTHER UPDATE: I like the guys at Public Policy Polling, but I think they have a soft spot for North Carolina Democrats. They declare this to be

Etheridge’s low water mark. If he’s only down by a point after what will certainly be the worst week of the campaign for him he’ll probably be fine this fall even if his winning margin might not match some of the lopsided victories he’s posted in his last few campaigns.

Way too optimistic for Etheridge, I think. Shouldn’t a safe seven-term incumbent like Etheridge have more than a 26 percent favorable rating? In this poll, 34 percent describe themselves as more likely to vote for an Obama health-care-bill supporter like Etheridge, 53 percent say “less likely.” (Yes, Etheridge voted yes on Obamacare.) On TARP, it’s 16 percent more likely, 61 percent less likely. It’s not just the shove that’s hurting him.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: A reader in Etheridge’s district weighs in:

I’m a long-time reader who practices law in Lillington, which is in the heart of Etheridge’s district . . .  I saw the comments you posted by Etheridge supporters in the N&O, and I recognized several of the posters . . .  As insane as those comments are, they are not entirely out of line with the views of this district. This is a district where the “he needed killin’” defense is an affirmative defense and a not-infrequently successful one.  Neck-grabbing some college kid for asking you a question might pass for appropriate behavior here.

It’s still too early to tell. It’s true that Obama is seen very unfavorably, but a lot of people seem to like Etheridge. However, it’s worth noting that his supporters have kept their mouths shut this week while everybody else made fun of Etheridge, and that his opponent seems to have stepped up her presence in the last 48 hours. Her signs are slowly filling in the spaces next to his.

If I had to guess, I’d guess that Etheridge narrowly survives this November. But if there’s a true Republican wave, as is indicated by the recent polling in those 70 swing districts, Etheridge will be taken down by it. Anyway, that’s the view among his constituents, as of today, so far as I can tell.  

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

‘It’s up to Etheridge to convince voters that the inexcusable outburst was a one-time intemperate indiscretion.’


The Greensboro News Record is reexamining its opinion of North Carolina’s Rep. Bob Etheridge after his physical altercation with two young men asking him a question on the streets of Washington:

Whether partisan political operatives or college students, as alleged, they deserved to be treated civilly.

To his credit, Etheridge, a Democrat representing the state’s 2nd Congressional District, promptly apologized after a video of the incident taken by one of the young men was splashed across the Internet…

Not surprisingly, some Republicans are calling for Lillington resident Etheridge to resign. For now, his relatively unknown opponent, Renee Ellmers of Dunn, says she’s not going to take advantage of the situation.

Yet the ugly incident should be fair game during the campaign. It’s up to Etheridge, who first was elected to Congress in 1996, to convince 2nd District voters that the inexcusable outburst was a one-time intemperate indiscretion, not a character flaw.

At the same time, the public needs to know more about who made the video and their motives. But even if it was “ambush journalism,” Etheridge should have reacted differently.

Meanwhile, the Raleigh News & Observer says Etheridge’s rival, Renee Ellmers, received about 300 contributions totaling nearly $25,000 in little more than 24 hours, according to her campaign manager.

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

‘If a teacher at my son’s school treated one of his students this way . . . he would be suspended.’


Renee Ellmers, the Republican candidate in North Carolina’s 2nd congressional district, has a new video response to Bob Etheridge after his altercation.

She calls on him to explain why he did what he did, and apologize in person to these two students, which may be a bit difficult, as their identity is not yet known.

If I were advising the candidate, I would have added a line about a frustrating sense of entitlement and disrespect for the public among current incumbent members of Congress, but maybe that’s just my preference . . .

Tags: Bob Etheridge , Renee Ellmers

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